1. 造纸：特纸盈利趋势改善，龙头竞争优势放大

新消费2025 年报&2026 一季报综述：复苏线索增加，周期触底显著，分化趋势延续轻工制造请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2行业研究行业专题研究（深度）轻工制造看好上次评级看好姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师执业编号：S1500524120004刘田田 纺织服装行业联席首席分析师执业编号：S1500525120001李晨 新消费行业分析师执业编号：S1500525060001骆峥 新消费行业分析师执业编号：S1500525020001信达证券股份有限公司CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B邮编：100031新消费2025 年报&2026 一季报综述：复苏线索增加，周期触底显著，分化趋势延续本期内容提要:我们预计未来3 年消费beta 震荡向上，低预期、低估值、低持仓构建较高安全垫，现金流好、分红高提供基础收益，消费投资逐步进入胜率高、赔率提升阶段。复苏线索增加：2025 年消费整体表现温和，新消费经历显著扩张，传统消费逐步筑底，2026Q1 复苏线索明显增加。新消费中潮玩、智能眼镜、新型烟草等依然延续快速扩张，龙头企业尚未出现显著竞争，核心在于“以我为主”探索产品突破、客群外延；而宠物、黄金珠宝等需求延续增长，但企业出现显著分化，宠物龙头聚焦底层研发、强化品牌力建设，珠宝需求分化、聚焦产品差异化。传统消费中必选消费需求表现稳健，包括文具、个护等；可选消费中家纺、运动服饰、高端女装、男装、民用电工等，以及消费对应的包装行业、纺织上游行业均呈现改善趋势，其中纺服上游纺织优于下游代工、辅料龙头优于成衣制造。周期触底显著：中游制造经历3-4 年扩张后行业普遍进入整合、收缩阶段，其中造纸、纺织、金属包装上游均出现持续涨价，包括纸浆、棉花、羊毛、铝材等。此外，美伊冲突强化上游大宗商品供应波动，加速部分产业迎来周期拐点，包括丁睛手套、锦纶等。造纸作为传统周期品，行业资本开支放缓，龙头聚焦上游延伸，企业盈利胜负手核心在于浆纸一体化布局优化原料&能源&运输成本、规模化生产基地效率提升以及柔性化布局高盈利品种，特种纸盈利趋势好于大宗纸，且特种纸海外业务布局领先大宗纸；包装下游需求稳健，龙头企业经营韧性较强，资本开支放缓&分红积极，且金属包装等细分行业供需压力缓解、价格周期向上。此外，两轮车新国标实际执行正趋于良性，电摩起量带动产品结构优化，短期阵痛后全产业链盈利能力提升叠加销量回暖有望创造可观弹性。分化显著强化：部分行业需求显著萎缩，抖音、小红书等新兴渠道造成品牌忠诚度下降，消费行业出现快速分化。其中，最典型的为地产链，依赖新房市场的定制压力较大，更新需求占比较高的软体和智能家居业绩保持韧性，同时出现悍高等公司重塑产品&渠道逻辑、快速抢占市场份额。服装家纺中门店收缩为主旋律，渠道结构呈现出直营扩张、加盟萎缩态势，“关小店、开大店、提店效”，行业从外延式扩张向内生式增长转型，国产运动品牌凭借DTC 转型和多品牌矩阵等策略持续领跑行业。此外，部分新消费行业需求增长可观，但资本驱动下供给侧快速增加，行业或进入新一轮动态平衡，包括宠物、个护等。出海依然确定：尽管面临关税、美伊冲突、汇率等带来的多重外部因素影响，板块龙头企业多呈现较好增长势头；此外，龙头企业抗风险能力持续提升，主要受益于非美收入占比提高以及非美产能占比提高，且出口企业在极端关税波动下逐步和下游客户建立默契。此外，跨境龙头均进入品牌请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3化阶段，持续强化品牌知名度，逐步将优势产品外延至海外线下龙头零售商体系，同时依托于全球化采购及规模化仓储优势，竞争优势放大。但需要注意的是，考虑到人民币依然在升值趋势中叠加美伊冲突带来原材料价格提升，Q2 出海板块在低基数下收入增长提速明确，但企业盈利或出现进一步分化。风险因素：国内&海外消费复苏不及预期、美伊冲突力度超预期、全球贸易摩擦加剧、地产销售复苏低于预期、原材料价格大幅波动、新型烟草政策风险。请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 4图 目 录图 1：造纸库存&PPI&扩张周期判断（%） .................................................................................................... 7图 2：行业在建工程梳理（亿元） ...................................................................................................................... 7图 3：各细分纸种开工率（%） .......................................................................................................................... 8图 4：部分纸企未来纸浆产能规划 ...................................................................................................................... 8图 5：浆纸价格走势（元/吨） ............................................................................................................................. 9图 6：部分造纸公司收入、归母净利润梳理（百万元） ........................................................................... 9图 7：部分造纸公司盈利能力梳理 ................................................................................................................... 10图 8：家居部分公司收入、归母净利润梳理（百万元） ........................................................................ 11图 9：定制公司分渠道收入表现（亿元）..................................................................................................... 12图 10：定制公司单店收入（百万元） ........................................................................................................... 12图 11：软体公司单店收入（百万元） ........................................................................................................... 12图 12：家居部分公司内外销收入&增速梳理（亿元） ............................................................................ 13图 13：家居部分公司盈利能力梳理 ................................................................................................................ 13图 14：公牛集团财务数据梳理（百万元） .................................................................................................. 14图 15：出口部分公司收入梳理（百万元） .................................................................................................. 15图 16：出口部分公司归母净利润梳理（百万元） .................................................................................... 16图 17：出口部分公司利润率梳理 ..................................................................................................................... 16图 18：我国跨境电商进出口额（万亿元，%） ......................................................................................... 17图 19：人民币对美元、欧元汇率（元） ....................................................................................................... 17图 20：部分线路国际海运价格指数 ................................................................................................................ 17图 21：跨境电商行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%） ........................................................ 18图 22：跨境电商行业主要公司盈利能力（%） ......................................................................................... 19请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 5图 23：跨境电商行业主要公司期间费率（%） ......................................................................................... 19图 24：我国黄金首饰与投资金消费情况 ....................................................................................................... 19图 25：我国黄金首饰市场工艺结构 ................................................................................................................ 20图 26：周大福中国内地定价类产品销售占比 ............................................................................................. 20图 27：黄金珠宝行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%） ........................................................ 21图 28：黄金珠宝行业主要公司盈利能力（%） ......................................................................................... 22图 29：黄金珠宝行业主要公司期间费率（%） ......................................................................................... 22图 30：我国潮流玩具市场规模及增速（亿元，%） ............................................................................... 23图 31：泡泡玛特THE MONSTERS 生活家系列冷藏箱 ............................................................................ 23图 32：潮玩行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%） ................................................................. 23图 33：潮玩行业主要公司盈利能力（%） .................................................................................................. 24图 34：潮玩行业主要公司期间费率（%） .................................................................................................. 24图 35：四大烟草龙头新型烟草收入占比 ....................................................................................................... 24图 36：思摩尔国际财务数据一览 ..................................................................................................................... 25图 37：中烟香港财务数据一览 ......................................................................................................................... 25图 38：全球智能眼镜销量（百万台） ........................................................................................................... 26图 39：中国智能眼镜销量（百万台） ........................................................................................................... 26图 40：部分眼镜公司财务数据梳理（百万元） ......................................................................................... 26图 41：康耐特财务数据一览 .............................................................................................................................. 26图 42：天猫“双11”宠物品牌销售排名 ........................................................................................................... 27图 43：抖音“双11”宠物品牌销售排名 ..................................................................................................... 27图 44：宠物行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%） ................................................................. 28图 45：宠物行业主要公司盈利能力（%） .................................................................................................. 28图 46：宠物行业主要公司期间费率（%） .................................................................................................. 29图 47：个护公司收入、利润梳理（百万元） ............................................................................................. 29图 48：乐舒适财务数据梳理 .............................................................................................................................. 30图 49：部分个护公司盈利能力及销售费用率梳理 .................................................................................... 30图 50：文具部分公司财务信息梳理（百万元） ......................................................................................... 30图 51：晨光股份分渠道梳理 .............................................................................................................................. 31图 52：我国电动两轮车销量及增速（万辆，%） .................................................................................... 31图 53：九号公司新国标电动自行车Fz3 30 ................................................................................................. 32图 54：26Q1 电动两轮车市场品牌格局 ......................................................................................................... 32图 55：电动两轮车行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%） ................................................... 33图 56：电动两轮车行业主要公司盈利能力（%） .................................................................................... 33图 57：电动两轮车行业主要公司期间费率（%） .................................................................................... 33图58：服装鞋帽针纺织品类社零累计同比增速(2024-2026Q1) .......................................................... 34图59：服装家纺行业主要公司收入情况（百万元，%） ....................................................................... 35图60：服装家纺行业主要公司利润情况（百万元，%） ....................................................................... 35图61：服装家纺行业主要公司扣非利润情况（百万元，%） .............................................................. 36图62：服装家纺行业主要公司门店情况 ........................................................................................................ 36图63：服装家纺行业主要公司盈利能力（%） .......................................................................................... 37图64：服装家纺行业主要公司期间费率（%） .......................................................................................... 37图65：四大国产运动品牌2025 年核心财务与运营数据对比 ............................................................... 39图66：中国纺织品服装出口趋势(2025Q1-2026Q1) ................................................................................ 40图67：新澳股份、百隆东方、台华新材近两个季度毛利率受益于涨价（单位：%） ............... 40图68：纺织制造行业主要公司收入情况（百万元，%） ....................................................................... 41请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 6图69：纺织制造行业主要公司利润情况（百万元，%） ....................................................................... 41图70：纺织制造行业主要公司毛利率（%） ............................................................................................... 42图71：纺织制造行业主要公司净利率（%） ............................................................................................... 42图72：三大运动制造公司2025 年核心财务与运营数据对比 ............................................................... 43图 73：包装部分公司收入、利润梳理（百万元） .................................................................................... 44图 74：包装部分公司盈利能力梳理 ................................................................................................................ 45图 75：包装部分公司分红梳理（亿元） ....................................................................................................... 45请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 7
1. 造纸：特纸盈利趋势改善，龙头竞争优势放大
行业层面：资本开支放缓，行业加速出清，龙头聚焦上游延伸。行业CAPEX 领先于PPI 领先于库存，26 年初行业企业数量近6 年首次出现收缩趋势，PPI 已呈现边际改善趋势。目前行业龙头公司在建工程高位回落，考虑前期投产产能开工率较低，需要一定时间消化，我们判断行业自2026 年供需压力有望逐步缓解，真实供需关系好转仍有待需求端改善加速产能去化，价格压力有望缓解、但短期向上空间估计仍有限。此外，目前龙头已规划扩产项目聚焦于向上游延伸，其中玖龙纸业26-27 年拟投产250 万吨化学浆产能、太阳/博汇/五洲/仙鹤等亦有明确新增纸浆产能规划，我们预计未来凭借浆纸自给率提升，龙头竞争优势进一步扩大，格局有望持续优化。图 1：造纸库存&PPI&扩张周期判断（%）图 2：行业在建工程梳理（亿元）-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2015-022015-052015-082015-112016-032016-062016-092016-122017-042017-072017-102018-022018-052018-082018-112019-032019-062019-092019-122020-042020-072020-102021-022021-052021-082021-112022-032022-062022-092022-122023-042023-072023-102024-022024-052024-082024-112025-032025-062025-092025-12造纸存货同比造纸固定资产投资同比造纸PPI造纸企业数量同比2021H12022H12023H12024H12025H1中顺洁柔0.561.350.821.431.682.903.070.901.180.42YOY149.46%-51.11%48.51%5.75%103.19%103.40%83.15%-68.99%-61.59%-53.78%太阳纸业50.742.9417.3232.7347.345.7310.2334.6661.9119.09YOY1.07%-87.92%-65.87%1012.54%173.35%-82.50%-78.40%505.05%505.41%-44.92%博汇纸业4.259.3115.4330.0137.8220.5924.1914.9718.2621.53YOY303.46%132.35%263.17%222.36%145.10%-31.38%-36.05%-27.32%-24.52%43.84%岳阳林纸3.542.312.703.063.756.2311.8823.112.162.80YOY-54.40%-73.51%-23.93%32.43%39.11%103.66%216.98%271.20%-81.86%-87.87%华泰股份4.547.225.315.914.588.0010.0119.003.756.53YOY39.82%84.57%16.80%-18.15%-13.67%35.36%118.59%137.40%-62.51%-65.61%ST晨鸣2.121.907.955.516.678.5210.925.876.046.20YOY-63.96%10.89%274.13%190.29%-16.11%54.65%63.83%-31.16%-44.69%5.65%山鹰国际61.9549.6567.0559.9264.7834.0140.8447.6661.568.09YOY-5.30%-6.07%8.24%20.69%-3.38%-43.23%-36.96%40.11%50.73%-83.01%仙鹤股份2.203.575.7611.5020.0242.2265.2643.4928.7015.22YOY-47.91%29.49%161.75%222.37%247.61%267.17%225.96%3.00%-56.02%-65.00%华旺科技0.540.090.522.030.030.210.910.310.340.00YOY-80.47%-37.51%-3.69%2122.34%-93.95%-89.47%2810.83%46.05%-62.28%-99.52%五洲特纸5.895.087.1912.8113.6021.5923.7215.9923.7410.97YOY-15.78%35.19%22.04%152.08%89.23%68.49%74.38%-25.95%0.06%-31.39%冠豪高新0.190.670.882.223.648.099.758.265.5513.96YOY-13.37%161.68%358.60%229.10%313.61%264.48%167.86%2.04%-43.09%69.06%请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 8图 3：各细分纸种开工率（%）图 4：部分纸企未来纸浆产能规划浆纸系：成本高位、纸价&盈利分化。企业盈利胜负手核心在于浆纸一体化布局优化原料&能源&运输成本、规模化生产基地效率提升以及柔性化布局高盈利品种。特种纸盈利趋势好于大宗纸，仙鹤/华旺/五洲等26Q1 季度盈利均呈现环比改善趋势，且我们对于26Q2 环比改善趋势乐观，核心变量在于提价落地及产销量爬坡。1）纸浆：阔叶浆25 年7 月跌至底部，此后国内纸企库存降低、补库需求提升（Suzano称6月订单保持正常）、欧洲小厂加速出清、浆厂联合控量（Arauco 两月无供应；Bracell加速阔叶转产至溶解浆，全年减少30 万吨阔叶浆供应；Suzano 宣布未来1 年减产3.5%），浆价底部持续提涨。26Q1 浆厂延续提价，但下游纸企原材料库存高位、纸价传导不畅，因此外盘报价于590-620 美金区间波动。展望后市，造纸下游淡季、需求不振，但海外地缘冲突推高生产成本，我们判断浆价26Q2 环比维持震荡。2）文化纸：盈利能力磨底，供需延续承压。25Q4、26Q1 双胶纸/铜版纸均价分别环比-4.3%/-8.1%、-0.1%/-1.4%，受制于教辅需求持续走弱，以及社会订单疲软，纸价持续磨底。利润方面，我们判断25Q4/26Q1 由于高价原材料逐步入库，纸企生产成本走高，压制利润空间释放，其中太阳纸业凭借原材料战略布局优势及成本管控能力，逆势表现稳定，25Q4/26Q1 毛利率分别为15.3%/14.8%（环比分别+1.3/-0.6pct）、归母净利润分别实现7.51/9.06 亿元（环比分别+4.4%/+20.7%），考虑纸价Q2 环比预计进一步回落，我们预计Q2 盈利趋势或呈现一定压力。新增供给未来仍有五洲特纸15 万吨产能、联盛120 万产能，我们预计供需压力延续。3）白卡纸：纸价底部回暖，盈利底部企稳，供需压力仍存。25Q4/26Q1 白卡纸均价分别环比+4.8%/+2.0%，下游需求相对平稳，但成本提升亦压制纸企盈利能力。其中晨鸣纸业25Q4/26Q1 毛利率分别为-11.7%/-8.6%，伴随各基地复工复产、产能利用率提升，盈利能力有望呈现修复态势；博汇纸业具备完善产业链配套布局、21-0121-0321-0521-0721-0921-1122-0122-0322-0522-0722-0922-1123-0123-0323-0523-0723-0923-1124-0124-0324-0524-0724-0924-1125-0125-0325-0525-0725-0925-1126-0126-03中国双胶纸月度开工负荷率中国双铜纸月度开工负荷率中国白卡纸月度开工负荷率中国箱板纸月度开工负荷率中国瓦楞纸月度开工负荷率中国白板纸月度开工负荷率未来浆产能规划玖龙纸业26Q4重庆70万吨化学浆、天津50万吨化学浆、27Q2北海80万吨化学浆、27Q3东莞50万吨化学浆太阳纸业26Q3山东60万吨化学浆博汇纸业规划年产 9.5 万吨化学木浆技改项目扩建至 32 万吨仙鹤股份广西60万吨浆、四川40万吨竹浆五洲特纸60万吨化学浆请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 9并持续优化产品结构，25Q4/26Q1 毛利率为10.91%/9.22%（环比分别+1.7/-1.7pct），实现归母净利润0.34/0.55 亿元（环比分别+8.2%/+62.8%）。新增供给方面，26 年仍有亚太森博120 万吨产能有待落地（广西金桂110 万吨预计27 年或之后落地），我们预计2026 年供需压力延续。4）特种纸：提价落地，盈利扩张。25Q4 起高价原材料逐步入库，纸企成本压力增加，因此25 年12 月起特纸公司针对部分品种发布提价函；26 年春节后受益于旺季小阳春，日用消费品类需求稳健，提价品类拓宽、频率加快，包括格拉辛、热转印、热敏、装饰原纸等品种，我们预计本轮提价落地幅度可观，浆纸同涨助力纸企盈利有望在26H1 呈现逐季扩张态势。此外，龙头自制浆产能逐步放量，竞争优势愈发显著，其中仙鹤股份26Q1 归母净利润为2.51 亿元（环比+6.9%），我们预计Q2 伴随广西基地、湖北基地以及常山基地内生浆纸匹配度提升，将呈现量价共振改善趋势；五洲特纸26Q1 归母净利润0.99 亿元（环比+55.9%），我们预计Q2 伴随江西基地、湖北基地产能爬坡，将呈现量价共振改善趋势；华旺科技25Q4/26Q1 归母净利润分别为0.64（环比+26.9%）/0.65 亿元（环比+1.0%），还原减值和汇兑影响，季度盈利达0.9 亿元左右，公司强化海外业务布局，原材料储备充分，我们预计Q2 盈利延续环比改善趋势。新增供给方面，细分龙头24-25 年集中投产，26 年聚焦上游延伸&产能爬坡，我们预计供给压力边际缓和。5）废纸系：成本高位回落，纸企盈利温和复苏。25Q4 国废前期延续提升趋势、12月高位回落，25Q4/26Q1 均价分别环比+6.5%/-6.9%。纸企成本压力传导顺畅，25Q4/26Q1 箱板纸均价环比分别+8.6/-6.1%、瓦楞纸环比分别+16.9%/-10.7%，我们判断纸企盈利25Q4 边际改善、26Q1 保持平稳。其中，玖龙纸业受益于纸浆自给率提升、产品结构改善，25H2（对应公司26 财年上半年）归母净利润达19.66 亿元（环比+51.6%）、吨盈利环比+35 元/吨，太阳纸业25H2 箱板纸毛利率环比提升4.3pct。供需方面，2026 年仅有太阳纸业70 万吨产能有待落地（联盛120 万吨预计27 年或之后落地），我们预计表观供需压力延续缓和趋势。图 5：浆纸价格走势（元/吨）图 6：部分造纸公司收入、归母净利润梳理（百万元）内盘针叶浆内盘阔叶浆双胶纸铜版纸白卡纸生活用纸A级国废黄板纸瓦楞纸箱板纸25Q16471.214774.975425.855672.884307.126220.061480.312820.603714.1925Q26064.874314.335240.375554.754128.855871.861456.642548.843520.0625Q35791.374141.814943.565171.793981.785596.021559.462643.903501.7525Q45550.384364.314731.664752.304171.625625.131660.753090.523801.8926Q15337.424603.784725.644684.554254.175867.071546.192760.763571.5425Q4环比-4.2%5.4%-4.3%-8.1%4.8%0.5%6.5%16.9%8.6%2026Q1环比-3.8%5.5%-0.1%-1.4%2.0%4.3%-6.9%-10.7%-6.1%25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1太阳纸业21588.6531996.6439766.9339544.3440726.529897.739215.419822.6810255.7439191.5610082.9222878.5632368.2840294.6340125.3241517.8910606.2010049.5310765.0610964.2539900.0711056.58YOY-5.2%48.2%24.3%-0.6%3.0%-2.8%-10.9%-6.0%5.2%-3.8%1.9%-4.3%41.5%24.5%-0.4%3.5%-1.2%-8.7%-2.9%4.0%-3.9%4.2%晨鸣纸业30736.5233019.8132004.3726608.5722729.47797.161309.471241.232838.696186.552981.1131787.6734402.1033310.4028052.2523004.301056.461498.801726.373134.996482.853263.65YOY1.1%7.4%-3.1%-16.9%-14.6%-88.2%-81.6%-79.1%-2.3%-72.8%274.0%4.6%8.2%-3.2%-15.8%-18.0%-87.2%-82.7%-75.6%-1.4%-71.8%208.9%博汇纸业13982.1016276.1218361.7818693.0618930.394564.184999.504886.474707.4919157.644460.4614332.8516790.9418905.7019241.5719444.085103.985458.065338.965079.1619529.304842.13YOY43.6%16.4%12.8%1.8%1.3%3.8%2.8%3.9%-5.2%1.2%-2.3%42.9%17.2%12.6%1.8%1.1%3.5%1.3%2.0%-7.3%0.4%-5.1%岳阳林纸7115.867838.059781.498640.738134.502108.522375.732084.062096.798665.101954.637495.568262.4310172.938957.918407.232480.642663.102399.262401.778970.082324.43YOY0.1%10.1%24.8%-11.7%-5.9%7.6%47.2%31.8%-29.6%6.5%-7.3%-0.2%10.2%23.1%-11.9%-6.1%8.2%45.2%37.5%-26.2%6.7%-6.3%山鹰国际24969.1533032.8134014.1229333.3429229.266766.077076.127290.887645.1028778.176214.6625054.7733102.8834100.9529386.5329329.686843.307124.137354.097728.4328861.506377.24YOY7.4%32.3%3.0%-13.8%-0.4%1.5%-6.7%-0.8%0.2%-1.5%-8.1%7.4%32.1%3.0%-13.8%-0.2%1.6%-7.1%-2.0%0.0%-1.6%-6.8%仙鹤股份4843.106016.977738.318553.4810273.582991.422999.663071.583280.2212342.883167.324891.866067.097793.358669.3510431.633114.323149.283390.803414.2112476.873374.69YOY6.0%24.2%28.6%10.5%20.1%35.4%25.3%15.5%8.9%20.1%5.9%5.6%24.0%28.5%11.2%20.3%32.7%24.1%18.1%7.7%19.6%8.4%五洲特纸2634.663689.525962.086519.317655.631988.772132.862335.172427.608884.392279.482649.213710.545990.526561.057704.412051.412234.262478.372488.918945.702392.16YOY10.9%40.0%61.6%9.3%17.4%15.2%25.1%14.8%10.9%16.1%14.6%11.2%40.1%61.4%9.5%17.4%15.5%28.0%18.2%11.2%16.1%16.6%华旺科技1611.982940.193436.403975.793768.48848.23778.54798.61776.623202.00726.081620.072949.413458.763988.853789.98870.95815.84815.89784.953210.33755.77YOY-2.5%82.4%16.9%15.7%-5.2%-10.9%-21.7%-11.7%-15.3%-15.0%-14.4%-3.9%82.1%17.3%15.3%-5.0%-8.7%-18.5%-12.8%-16.4%-15.3%-13.2%冠豪高新2439.757397.828085.977403.377588.411556.751846.571830.761917.687151.761723.892451.057478.298305.317476.477690.601599.271902.961889.351994.147228.221799.82YOY-6.0%203.2%9.3%-8.4%2.5%-7.9%4.7%-2.8%-14.8%-5.8%10.7%-6.3%205.1%11.1%-10.0%2.9%-9.2%2.2%-3.1%-15.3%-6.0%12.5%恒达新材671.96757.74953.18868.741007.63242.49278.24275.69354.731151.15257.02673.00759.33956.45869.931009.99245.89279.83283.06359.951156.38258.47YOY15.2%12.8%25.8%-8.9%16.0%-4.4%9.4%15.0%36.4%14.2%6.0%15.3%12.8%26.0%-9.0%16.1%-3.3%9.8%17.6%37.1%14.5%5.1%恒丰纸业1828.652021.572455.952648.082773.51674.24679.05685.61783.572822.47688.621845.202050.232485.642660.172787.23691.17701.10700.78798.642837.53711.49YOY4.1%10.5%21.5%7.8%4.7%26.8%1.6%-4.6%-8.4%1.8%2.1%4.0%11.1%21.2%7.0%4.8%25.1%1.6%-4.9%-8.1%1.8%2.9%齐峰新材2810.913701.963118.643660.823388.35837.08842.81850.35825.283355.53804.352857.803750.913143.913679.973461.50918.41912.46915.69876.383406.63867.47YOY-13.5%31.7%-15.8%17.4%-7.4%-2.9%-6.6%8.1%-1.4%-1.0%-3.9%-12.9%31.3%-16.2%17.1%-5.9%1.1%-2.3%11.3%-3.7%-1.6%-5.5%太阳纸业1953.112956.842808.773085.693101.26886.07894.02719.55750.983250.62906.371923.232931.712771.073026.593234.81883.101763.562470.943191.703191.70886.22YOY-10.3%51.4%-5.0%9.9%0.5%-7.3%11.5%2.7%16.9%4.8%2.3%-8.4%52.4%-5.5%9.2%6.9%-7.3%-2.9%-4.6%-1.3%-1.3%0.4%晨鸣纸业1712.032065.51189.29-1281.29-7410.78-1451.63-2406.32-2149.86-2288.12-8295.93-512.471119.101743.88-361.46-1942.12-7202.39-1461.51-3645.36-5810.11-7669.27-7669.27-587.29YOY3.3%20.6%-90.8%-776.9%-478.4%-2594.4%-8043.2%-191.0%65.9%-11.9%64.7%59.3%55.8%-120.7%-437.3%-270.9%-545.3%-1245.8%-440.5%-6.5%-6.5%59.8%博汇纸业834.071705.68228.07181.83175.8253.3736.6531.4534.02155.4955.37821.971712.77221.03120.65147.7051.9558.0787.94119.94119.9450.99YOY523.5%104.5%-86.6%-20.3%-3.3%-46.9%20.1%73.5%27.7%-11.6%3.7%367.6%108.4%-87.1%-45.4%22.4%-45.2%-46.8%-26.3%-18.8%-18.8%-1.8%岳阳林纸414.31298.08615.56-237.95166.7346.9294.2020.98-397.06-234.9712.92376.88210.03547.779.22-202.8134.98124.47137.70-281.36-281.3612.07YOY32.3%-28.1%106.5%-138.7%170.1%-42.0%172.8%145.2%-251.7%-240.9%-72.5%49.3%-44.3%160.8%-98.3%-2299.5%185.9%373.6%388.7%-38.7%-38.7%-65.5%山鹰国际1381.101515.67-2256.45156.23-450.6532.819.00-331.46-845.96-1135.60-497.411430.461200.10-2406.64-298.18-842.56-44.33-65.78-412.40-1323.76-1323.76-530.08YOY1.4%9.7%-248.9%106.9%-388.5%-16.0%-87.9%-636.0%-62.9%-152.0%-1615.8%13.6%-16.1%-300.5%87.6%-182.6%-186.4%39.2%6.3%-57.1%-57.1%-1095.7%仙鹤股份717.161016.67710.29663.791003.83236.23238.26303.52234.611012.62250.87645.74958.17556.95594.86933.15223.96443.14689.74914.58914.58232.47YOY63.0%41.8%-30.1%-6.5%51.2%-12.1%-15.4%13.9%25.6%0.9%6.2%54.2%48.4%-41.9%6.8%56.9%-5.5%-11.2%-7.1%-2.0%-2.0%3.8%五洲特纸338.56390.16205.20272.86361.8464.6856.9959.2863.80244.7599.46313.11353.26163.04251.75327.1461.31114.82169.36227.44227.4498.67YOY69.9%15.2%-47.4%33.0%32.6%-51.7%-42.2%-37.3%83.0%-32.4%53.8%78.2%12.8%-53.8%54.4%29.9%-53.4%-48.8%-46.4%-30.5%-30.5%60.9%华旺科技260.00448.58467.34566.09468.8680.6975.0150.7664.43270.8965.07254.86427.05453.40527.91434.4877.35153.15203.25261.02261.0257.51YOY52.2%72.5%4.2%21.1%-17.2%-45.1%-51.7%-52.3%6.8%-42.2%-19.4%54.2%67.6%6.2%16.4%-17.7%-46.7%-44.2%-45.7%-39.9%-39.9%-25.7%冠豪高新178.55138.71387.11-46.24183.720.65-58.57-36.40-209.34-303.66180.08156.500.69375.53-67.8951.080.13-59.46-96.38-279.84-279.840.33YOY4.8%-22.3%179.1%-111.9%497.3%-98.5%-238.8%-146.7%-284.1%-265.3%27725.8%5.6%-99.6%54453.5%-118.1%175.2%-99.7%-218.2%-393.0%-647.9%-647.9%162.2%恒达新材89.79103.6297.4587.6368.4613.2321.0020.6325.4580.3125.0387.0495.1685.4077.5060.1610.8028.4447.4670.7770.7721.88YOY179.8%15.4%-6.0%-10.1%-21.9%-20.7%-6.7%48.1%66.1%17.3%89.1%198.2%9.3%-10.3%-9.3%-22.4%-30.9%-22.1%-0.9%17.6%17.6%102.7%恒丰纸业131.74101.37128.92136.16115.8228.0366.9153.3549.44197.7256.90118.5184.48118.59116.23121.1123.8185.38132.25169.93169.9354.20YOY47.3%-23.1%27.2%5.6%-14.9%26.6%96.7%-1.0%754.8%70.7%103.0%38.8%-28.7%40.4%-2.0%4.2%22.7%96.6%38.3%40.3%40.3%127.7%齐峰新材159.92165.248.48236.78112.3217.8945.1939.2952.42154.7940.11130.09125.84-6.36217.5795.1112.5451.0383.67132.42132.4234.91YOY20.5%3.3%-94.9%2693.6%-52.6%-65.0%-21.9%1608.3%790.2%37.8%124.2%13.0%-3.3%-105.0%3523.6%-56.3%-73.7%-48.4%-10.0%39.2%39.2%178.4%营业收入规模及增速归母净利润及增速收入&合同负债规模及增速扣非归母净利润及增速请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 10图 7：部分造纸公司盈利能力梳理
2. 地产链：总量压力显著，需求结构转型
2.1 家居：软体平稳、定制承压，强化产品&渠道改革依赖新房市场的定制压力较大，而需求结构逐步转移至二手房更新需求的软体和智能家居业绩保持一定韧性。基于后续市场判断来看，定制企业内生改革压力持续放大，企业亏损状况进一步外延，部分龙头企业已经出现固费摊销不足，若后续进一步规模收缩、将出现现金流压力从而倒逼内生规模收缩（收缩区域、收缩人员、收缩营销等）。收入端：终端需求疲软、国补节奏波动，收入表现分化。截至25 年底/26M3 房屋竣工面积分别同比-18%/-25%，商品房销售面积分别同比-9%/-10%；25 年30 城二手房成交同比增长2%，26Q1 20 城二手房成交同比+4%。基于下游地产表现，家装市场亦呈现分化走势，此外，受制于国补节奏波动导致25Q4/26Q1 基数较高，家居公司收入端普遍降速。分产品来看：更新需求占比较好的软体&五金经营趋势优于定制1）定制：25Q4/26Q1 欧派、索菲亚、金牌、志邦、我乐、兔宝宝收入同比分别-20.4%/-23.0%、-16.9%/-25.5%、-11.9%/-12.2%、-18.9%/-29.6%、-1.0%/-26.6%、-5.9%/+32.7%。我乐家居依托于高端品牌优势，细分赛道发力抢占份额，25Q4 表现平稳；兔宝宝加速推进下沉市场且拓宽品类（从单卖板材到为客户提供板材加工、定制服务），26Q1 逆势实现优异表现。2）软体&五金：25Q4/26Q1 顾家、慕思、喜临门、悍高收入同比分别+7.8%/+2.4%、-15.0%/+5.9%、-4.7%/-2.8%、+29.5%/+12.5%。我们预计顾家家居内销26Q1小幅下滑、外销仍实现平稳增长，功能沙发等高潜品类表现优异；受益于26Q1 多款智能新品推出以及基数走弱，Q2 起增长有望提速；慕思股份依托强劲品牌优势，以及产品智能化升级（25 年智能产品收入已达2.55 亿元、同比+128%，26Q1 有望延续高增），收入逆势实现平稳增长；喜临门延续发力国内外电商渠道（25 全年线上收入同比+27.2%）并积极推广智能产品（26 年亲民新品牌呼呼新品发布会结束后4h销售额突破1.18 亿），弱化大宗&线下零售压力。悍高集团发力产品&渠道，持续抢占市场份额，26Q1 阶段性增速降低主要受经销商采购节奏影响，后续收入增长有望25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1太阳纸业19.44%17.37%15.17%15.89%16.01%15.78%17.26%14.07%15.34%15.59%14.77%18.96%16.95%14.78%15.50%15.58%15.37%16.80%13.57%14.86%15.12%14.33%YOY-3.11%-2.07%-2.21%0.72%0.12%-2.21%0.11%0.10%0.41%-0.43%-1.01%0.55%-2.01%-2.16%0.72%0.08%-2.20%0.07%0.04%0.38%-0.46%-1.03%晨鸣纸业23.07%23.61%14.47%8.13%2.57%-131.92%-43.45%-37.40%-11.66%-39.05%-8.62%22.10%22.73%13.71%7.26%1.51%-134.69%-45.67%-39.29%-12.71%-40.74%-9.64%YOY-5.29%0.54%-9.15%-6.34%-5.56%-144.29%-55.56%-38.21%28.38%-41.62%123.30%-2.00%0.63%-9.01%-6.45%-5.75%-146.33%-57.07%-39.30%30.57%-42.25%125.05%博汇纸业17.06%22.93%11.65%10.83%9.59%9.60%8.60%9.25%10.91%9.57%9.22%16.80%22.54%10.97%9.87%8.59%8.49%7.50%8.16%9.76%8.46%7.96%YOY2.48%5.87%-11.28%-0.82%-1.25%-3.69%-0.70%-0.53%4.52%-0.01%-0.38%6.33%5.74%-11.57%-1.10%-1.28%-3.73%-0.84%-0.62%4.32%-0.13%-0.54%岳阳林纸18.97%15.11%15.41%8.53%13.11%9.22%11.97%9.24%11.32%10.49%7.71%14.65%13.58%14.26%7.27%11.72%7.90%10.85%8.17%9.85%9.25%6.49%YOY0.06%-3.86%0.30%-6.88%4.58%2.17%3.34%4.29%-12.53%-2.62%-1.52%0.20%-1.06%0.68%-7.00%4.45%2.29%4.15%4.65%-12.95%-2.47%-1.41%山鹰国际16.74%12.19%7.23%9.87%7.35%9.88%9.15%4.88%1.23%6.13%2.46%15.37%11.12%6.07%8.57%6.12%8.67%8.02%3.73%0.03%4.96%1.16%YOY-2.33%-4.55%-4.96%2.64%-2.52%-0.01%1.33%-0.85%-5.00%-1.22%-7.42%0.94%-4.25%-5.05%2.49%-2.45%0.05%1.36%-0.78%-4.92%-1.16%-7.51%仙鹤股份20.47%19.98%11.51%11.62%15.46%14.60%12.82%14.59%12.87%13.71%14.84%20.15%19.61%11.17%11.24%15.10%14.32%12.48%14.13%12.51%13.34%14.39%YOY1.78%-0.50%-8.47%0.11%3.84%-3.42%-4.57%0.01%0.04%-1.76%0.24%4.67%-0.54%-8.44%0.07%3.86%-3.45%-4.68%0.02%0.12%-1.76%0.07%五洲特纸23.13%17.28%8.78%9.59%9.87%8.76%7.67%7.63%7.62%7.89%9.39%18.82%17.06%8.62%9.34%9.66%8.53%7.39%7.33%7.21%7.58%9.07%YOY3.97%-5.85%-8.50%0.81%0.28%-4.20%-3.57%-3.05%2.00%-1.98%0.63%3.66%-1.77%-8.44%0.72%0.32%-4.21%-3.65%-3.16%1.84%-2.08%0.54%华旺科技24.55%21.86%18.47%19.05%15.76%13.67%12.24%11.52%15.59%13.25%17.76%21.96%21.24%17.88%18.44%15.03%12.97%11.28%10.26%13.51%12.02%16.62%YOY6.31%-2.69%-3.38%0.58%-3.29%-6.49%-4.96%-2.62%4.35%-2.51%4.09%6.02%-0.72%-3.36%0.55%-3.41%-6.74%-5.09%-3.09%3.16%-3.01%3.64%冠豪高新23.51%18.68%14.22%6.36%9.44%9.15%4.45%6.22%0.67%4.91%6.43%18.58%17.52%13.26%5.27%8.51%8.21%3.47%5.14%-0.64%3.83%5.41%YOY-1.92%-4.83%-4.46%-7.85%3.08%-4.88%-4.88%-2.44%-6.06%-4.53%-2.72%-2.25%-1.06%-4.26%-7.99%3.24%-4.82%-5.08%-2.61%-6.37%-4.69%-2.80%恒达新材26.48%24.49%18.87%18.35%14.31%13.58%15.41%15.94%15.49%15.18%17.37%25.82%23.81%18.47%17.95%13.75%12.96%14.82%15.46%14.94%14.62%16.73%YOY5.85%-1.99%-5.62%-0.53%-4.04%1.33%-0.38%0.59%1.59%0.87%3.79%8.64%-2.01%-5.34%-0.52%-4.20%1.07%-0.53%0.87%1.74%0.87%3.78%恒丰纸业30.59%20.50%17.42%17.39%17.82%15.68%18.60%17.74%25.04%19.48%19.52%23.56%18.80%15.73%15.44%15.73%14.49%16.00%16.53%22.42%17.55%18.06%YOY4.95%-10.09%-3.08%-0.03%0.43%-0.35%3.39%0.31%3.74%1.66%3.85%5.61%-4.76%-3.07%-0.29%0.29%0.52%2.26%0.48%4.30%1.82%3.57%齐峰新材14.39%10.87%7.85%13.98%10.25%9.75%13.01%12.51%12.72%12.00%12.69%13.70%10.34%7.32%13.44%9.73%9.20%12.42%12.03%12.14%11.45%11.97%YOY0.33%-3.52%-3.02%6.12%-3.73%-3.76%-0.43%6.08%5.70%1.75%2.94%2.13%-3.36%-3.02%6.12%-3.70%-3.85%-0.55%6.19%5.64%1.71%2.77%太阳纸业9.05%9.24%7.06%7.80%7.61%8.95%9.70%7.33%7.32%8.29%8.99%12.12%15.78%12.17%11.84%10.84%3.05%2.99%2.38%2.48%10.66%2.94%YOY-0.52%0.19%-2.18%0.74%-0.19%-0.44%1.95%0.62%0.73%0.68%0.04%-2.81%3.66%-3.62%-0.32%-1.01%-0.55%0.07%-0.14%0.19%-0.18%-0.11%晨鸣纸业5.57%6.26%0.59%-4.82%-32.60%-182.10%-183.76%-173.20%-80.60%-134.10%-17.19%7.05%10.82%0.99%-7.68%-80.94%-17.22%-36.95%-50.49%-111.60%-917.86%-77.63%YOY0.12%0.69%-5.66%-5.41%-27.79%-182.96%-183.35%-160.77%150.08%-101.49%164.91%0.47%3.77%-9.83%-8.67%-73.26%-17.57%-36.77%-45.96%-58.23%-836.92%-60.41%博汇纸业5.97%10.48%1.24%0.97%0.93%1.17%0.73%0.64%0.72%0.81%1.24%13.70%23.47%3.50%2.73%2.59%0.78%0.53%0.44%0.46%2.10%0.74%YOY4.59%4.51%-9.24%-0.27%-0.04%-1.12%0.11%0.26%0.19%-0.12%0.07%11.17%9.77%-19.97%-0.77%-0.14%-0.71%0.08%0.17%0.07%-0.49%-0.04%岳阳林纸5.82%3.80%6.29%-2.75%2.05%2.23%3.96%1.01%-18.94%-2.71%0.66%4.84%3.41%6.69%-2.74%2.11%0.59%1.18%0.26%-5.09%-3.09%0.17%YOY1.41%-2.02%2.49%-9.05%4.80%-1.90%11.99%3.94%-27.72%-4.76%-1.56%1.05%-1.44%3.29%-9.43%4.85%-0.35%2.71%0.82%-8.31%-5.19%-0.42%山鹰国际5.53%4.59%-6.63%0.53%-1.54%0.48%0.13%-4.55%-11.07%-3.95%-8.00%8.86%9.18%-16.61%1.14%-2.99%0.22%0.06%-2.17%-5.51%-7.41%-3.30%YOY-0.33%-0.94%-11.22%7.17%-2.07%-0.10%-0.85%-3.93%-4.26%-2.40%-8.49%-0.60%0.32%-25.78%17.74%-4.13%-0.07%-0.48%-1.85%-1.93%-4.42%-3.52%仙鹤股份14.81%16.90%9.18%7.76%9.77%7.90%7.94%9.88%7.15%8.20%7.92%13.40%15.84%10.32%9.06%12.40%2.88%2.88%3.63%2.72%11.58%2.83%YOY5.18%2.09%-7.72%-1.42%2.01%-4.27%-3.82%-0.15%0.95%-1.57%0.02%1.91%2.44%-5.51%-1.26%3.34%-0.73%-0.82%0.19%0.38%-0.82%-0.05%五洲特纸12.85%10.57%3.44%4.19%4.73%3.25%2.67%2.54%2.63%2.75%4.36%20.06%18.44%9.31%11.27%10.25%1.81%1.60%1.66%1.76%6.71%2.69%YOY4.46%-2.28%-7.13%0.74%0.54%-4.50%-3.11%-2.11%1.04%-1.97%1.11%0.31%-1.62%-9.13%1.95%-1.02%-3.56%-2.24%-1.95%0.64%-3.54%0.87%华旺科技16.13%15.26%13.60%14.24%12.44%9.51%9.63%6.36%8.30%8.46%8.96%11.72%17.61%12.95%14.12%11.83%2.01%1.88%1.31%1.66%6.94%1.65%YOY5.80%-0.87%-1.66%0.64%-1.80%-5.91%-5.98%-5.40%1.72%-3.98%-0.55%-4.15%5.89%-4.65%1.16%-2.29%-1.58%-1.93%-1.39%0.13%-4.89%-0.36%冠豪高新7.32%1.88%4.79%-0.62%2.42%0.04%-3.17%-1.99%-10.92%-4.25%10.45%6.36%2.77%7.32%-1.03%3.96%0.01%-1.28%-0.82%-4.82%-7.18%4.17%YOY0.75%-5.44%2.91%-5.41%3.05%-2.48%-5.56%-1.20%-15.97%-6.67%10.40%-0.02%-3.60%4.55%-8.35%4.99%-0.93%-2.22%-0.49%-7.31%-11.13%4.15%恒达新材13.36%13.68%10.22%10.09%6.79%5.46%7.55%7.48%7.17%6.98%9.74%21.24%19.69%16.99%6.42%5.02%0.97%1.54%1.51%1.83%5.74%1.78%YOY7.86%0.31%-3.45%-0.14%-3.29%-1.12%-1.31%1.67%1.28%0.18%4.28%11.60%-1.55%-2.69%-10.58%-1.40%-0.25%-0.12%0.47%0.71%0.73%0.81%恒丰纸业7.20%5.01%5.25%5.14%4.18%4.16%9.85%7.78%6.31%7.01%8.26%5.88%4.40%5.37%5.45%4.50%1.08%2.54%1.99%1.82%7.23%1.96%YOY2.11%-2.19%0.23%-0.11%-0.97%-0.01%4.76%0.28%5.63%2.83%4.11%1.78%-1.48%0.97%0.08%-0.95%0.20%1.19%-0.13%1.60%2.73%0.87%齐峰新材5.69%4.46%0.27%6.47%3.31%2.14%5.36%4.62%6.35%4.61%4.99%4.61%4.61%0.24%6.34%2.80%0.44%1.14%1.01%1.34%3.92%1.01%YOY1.61%-1.23%-4.19%6.20%-3.15%-3.80%-1.05%4.95%5.65%1.30%2.85%0.80%0.00%-4.37%6.10%-3.55%-0.92%-0.40%1.08%1.19%1.12%0.57%毛利率归母净利率毛销差ROE请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 11提速。3 ）智能家居：25Q4/26Q1 好太太/ 瑞尔特收入同比分别-0.7%/+21.7% ，-33.0%/-15.0%。我们预计26 年国补对行业需求刺激有限，好太太26Q1 逆势实现靓丽增长主要系深化渠道改革+强化品牌势能。图 8：家居部分公司收入、归母净利润梳理（百万元）分渠道来看：零售深化改革，大宗占比下降，海外贡献增量1）零售：25 年欧派/索菲亚/志邦/金牌零售收入分别-9.3%/-12.5%/-12.3%/+4.4%，26Q1 欧派/志邦/金牌分别-25.6%/-33.7%/-16.0%。欧派持续助力零售经销商转型大家居（25 年大家居引流客户数&成交客户数同比分别+21.5%/+111%），并主动布局旧改、社区店、中介合作等创新模式，25 年/26Q1 单店收入同比-3.5%/-9.6%；索菲亚多品牌协同发展、推行城市共创合伙人等新模式，受行业影响自然流量下滑、25 年同店收入-11.1%，但主品牌客单价25Q4 已环比改善。金牌/志邦加速渠道整合、25 年调整门店统计口径，其中志邦持续深化“整家一体化”战略，我们预计整装收入表现靓丽；金牌全力构建四级店态立体化协作渠道网络，抓取碎片流量，零售表现优于同行。软体龙头亦推进零售转型，其中顾家家居25 年单店收入同比+6.6%，慕思&喜临门强化智能化产品布局，同时加速线上业务拓展。2）大宗：25 年欧派/索菲亚/志邦/金牌大宗收入分别-14.0%/-6.3%/-37.6%/-18.6%，26Q1 欧派/志邦/金牌分别-23.5%/-52.5%/-15.8%。家居龙头提高风险把控，客户结构持续改善，逐步形成国央企为主的客户结构，同时开拓酒店、学校、医院等增量业务，我们预计后续大宗业务或延续承压、但下滑幅度有望逐步收敛。3）海外：25 年家居龙头加速出海，顾家/慕思/喜临门收入同比+11%/+67%/+1%，慕思增速靓丽主要系基数较小，软体龙头均已布局跨境电商，且逐步探索海外品牌门店布局，未来受益于海外品牌力提升，叠加产品&区域持续丰富，外销收入有望保持靓丽增长；欧派/ 索菲亚/ 金牌/ 志邦年外销增速同比+10%/+13%/-11%/+78%，其中志邦国际零售+海外工程渠道齐头并进、未来有望维持高增（26Q1 同比+42%）。25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1顾家家居12665.9918341.9518010.4519212.0318479.724913.784887.275211.015044.3320056.395032.7514700.0020739.4019541.6620815.5420531.116416.976427.716612.126704.2721716.336304.00YOY14.2%44.8%-1.8%6.7%-3.8%12.9%7.2%6.5%7.8%8.5%2.4%16.8%41.1%-5.8%6.5%-1.4%14.1%10.2%7.8%-0.4%5.8%-1.8%慕思股份4452.426481.045812.685578.555602.741121.251356.351283.511465.865226.971186.944741.016733.005930.135767.395824.681350.301519.191481.891667.015428.121406.71YOY15.3%45.6%-10.3%-4.0%0.4%-6.7%-5.0%2.8%-15.0%-6.7%5.9%15.8%42.0%-11.9%-2.7%1.0%-0.4%-5.1%4.6%-14.4%-6.8%4.2%ST喜临门5623.297771.847838.738678.358729.141730.222290.292175.652622.448818.601682.225832.427972.228207.478924.708945.131883.452465.352328.392773.108969.261832.59YOY15.4%38.2%0.9%10.7%0.6%-1.8%4.3%7.8%-4.7%1.0%-2.8%16.4%36.7%3.0%8.7%0.2%-3.7%4.0%7.4%-6.6%0.3%-2.7%悍高集团853.141474.231620.292221.912856.77626.12823.711046.981097.833594.65704.63877.931505.671646.682258.312891.01658.98863.321088.441139.693636.51751.85YOY6.3%72.8%9.9%37.1%28.6%26.8%19.2%27.0%29.5%25.8%12.5%7.2%71.5%9.4%37.1%28.0%33.4%19.2%32.0%29.3%25.8%14.1%好太太1160.011425.451382.021688.331556.94258.86417.99382.30484.391543.55314.991192.241500.621422.951710.171577.77281.22437.55400.10507.681566.83331.57YOY-8.0%22.9%-3.0%22.2%-7.8%-11.4%-0.6%7.3%-0.7%-0.9%21.7%-8.2%25.9%-5.2%20.2%-7.7%-11.4%1.0%8.0%-0.2%-0.7%17.9%瑞尔特1284.201868.291959.592184.422358.32412.20507.59443.58434.161797.52350.511307.651896.381995.802282.062422.11472.30590.31510.05488.971852.33413.87YOY15.8%45.5%4.9%11.5%8.0%-21.2%-18.0%-21.8%-33.0%-23.8%-15.0%13.4%45.0%5.2%14.3%6.1%-25.2%-16.2%-19.8%-31.4%-23.5%-12.4%欧派家居14739.6920441.6022479.5022782.0918924.733447.334793.554972.984018.2317232.092653.3115664.3421644.6023261.7923781.0820888.746343.967005.336640.604793.1118006.983506.86YOY8.9%38.7%10.0%1.3%-16.9%-4.8%-3.4%-6.1%-20.4%-8.9%-23.0%6.6%38.2%7.5%2.2%-12.2%35.0%12.6%3.9%-31.6%-13.8%-44.7%索菲亚8352.8310407.0911222.5411665.6510494.352038.102512.712456.742359.409366.951519.239146.0311391.7211924.2712971.7312776.563534.263817.553143.182985.639993.182008.03YOY8.7%24.6%7.8%3.9%-10.0%-3.5%-10.8%-9.9%-16.9%-10.7%-25.5%11.1%24.6%4.7%8.8%-1.5%18.7%3.3%-12.0%-41.7%-21.8%-43.2%金牌家居2639.843447.773553.353645.483474.72587.14881.81898.63933.133300.71515.742985.763863.143880.324086.064125.661140.091585.051299.261287.233654.80793.91YOY24.2%30.6%3.1%2.6%-4.7%-8.4%0.3%0.3%-11.9%-5.0%-12.2%23.0%29.4%0.4%5.3%1.0%21.7%26.0%12.6%-24.7%-11.4%-30.4%志邦家居3840.445152.805388.786116.475257.85817.581081.831174.381283.034356.83575.334306.035684.775824.536590.345711.821084.721307.271412.091589.724663.52852.64YOY29.7%34.2%4.6%13.5%-14.0%-0.3%-22.3%-19.7%-18.9%-17.1%-29.6%29.2%32.0%2.5%13.1%-13.3%1.9%-20.6%-18.8%-21.9%-18.4%-21.4%我乐家居1584.191725.441666.281711.321432.47317.74351.44385.91395.801450.89233.101710.631949.611843.391910.641807.83552.84544.29573.69563.011618.09372.10YOY18.9%8.9%-3.4%2.7%-16.3%12.8%-6.5%2.8%-1.0%1.3%-26.6%10.0%14.0%-5.4%3.6%-5.4%27.3%3.3%4.2%-27.4%-10.5%-32.7%兔宝宝6465.769425.938917.399062.869188.841270.722363.352684.432564.028882.521685.996710.049648.749077.959286.069405.381442.112643.482956.982774.909093.401948.40YOY39.6%45.8%-5.4%1.6%1.4%-14.3%-2.5%5.0%-5.9%-3.3%32.7%41.9%43.8%-5.9%2.3%1.3%-14.8%-3.3%4.3%-5.7%-3.3%35.1%顾家家居845.471664.451812.052005.961416.54519.06501.50517.97251.511790.04496.25590.661426.771544.071780.991301.50458.72900.101388.681628.511628.51409.91YOY-27.2%96.9%8.9%10.7%-29.4%23.5%5.4%12.0%334.4%26.4%-4.4%-30.4%141.6%8.2%15.3%-26.9%22.2%15.3%13.9%25.1%25.1%-10.6%慕思股份536.34686.44708.92802.27767.33118.05239.69109.1868.61535.5388.38575.96677.23650.20783.45723.33118.78285.27366.26397.43397.4374.62YOY61.1%28.0%3.3%13.2%-4.4%-16.4%3.3%-26.8%-72.0%-30.2%-25.1%35.4%17.6%-4.0%20.5%-7.7%-10.9%-21.0%-25.3%-45.1%-45.1%-37.2%ST喜临门313.40558.75237.55428.87322.3671.10195.39132.82-157.90241.41-35.87313.39495.73204.50376.64292.5359.95259.56393.52231.35231.35-38.46YOY-17.6%78.3%-57.5%80.5%-24.8%-4.0%22.4%-6.1%-199.2%-25.1%-150.5%18.4%58.2%-58.7%84.2%-22.3%-19.3%16.4%7.6%-20.9%-20.9%-164.1%悍高集团55.04164.45205.66332.70531.37115.59149.85218.03220.04703.51128.5357.26163.68198.69329.11520.35114.35261.09477.75694.16694.16121.08YOY6.5%198.8%25.1%61.8%59.7%40.3%30.7%42.4%21.4%32.4%11.2%-17.9%185.9%21.4%65.6%58.1%46.3%37.9%#DIV/0!33.4%33.4%5.9%好太太265.75300.22218.59327.26248.4933.4852.6957.0560.00203.2240.63227.85278.90220.97323.01244.0031.6582.04139.18196.87196.8738.22YOY-4.9%13.0%-27.2%49.7%-24.1%-39.7%-40.1%21.7%3.4%-18.2%21.4%-7.2%22.4%-20.8%46.2%-24.5%-42.9%-42.5%-26.6%-19.3%-19.3%20.8%瑞尔特114.63139.36210.94218.58181.0521.4830.189.91-43.2718.310.8983.61114.33192.64200.09159.9317.6640.2445.2110.4010.40-1.33YOY-36.9%21.6%51.4%3.6%-17.2%-63.3%-6.9%-72.0%-179.1%-89.9%-95.9%-48.4%36.8%68.5%3.9%-20.1%-67.0%-49.9%-59.9%-93.5%-93.5%-107.5%欧派家居2062.632665.592688.433035.672599.13307.93710.27814.29164.271996.76154.791935.192510.352592.342745.662315.95265.91942.581711.811730.291730.29108.50YOY12.1%29.2%0.9%12.9%-14.4%41.3%-8.0%-21.8%-71.1%-23.2%-49.7%15.1%29.7%3.3%5.9%-15.7%86.2%21.4%-2.9%-25.3%-25.3%-59.2%索菲亚1192.25122.581064.301261.281370.9412.10307.28362.15219.76901.28-38.431049.6131.67937.241134.621093.00150.86428.53720.42944.15944.156.86YOY10.7%-89.7%768.3%18.5%8.7%-92.7%-23.0%1.4%-51.1%-34.3%-417.6%8.1%-97.0%2859.0%21.1%-3.7%-3.2%-19.3%-17.6%-13.6%-13.6%-95.5%金牌家居292.65337.98277.03292.03199.2934.9028.761.06-42.8321.88-14.17237.34262.94191.33233.77140.7414.2134.1429.80-21.06-21.06-29.79YOY20.7%15.5%-18.0%5.4%-31.8%-4.2%-13.0%-97.9%-153.7%-89.0%-140.6%20.0%10.8%-27.2%22.2%-39.8%0.8%-13.0%-63.4%-115.0%-115.0%-309.6%志邦家居395.44505.52536.72595.07385.4242.0895.9635.1231.55204.71-94.34358.75460.10497.58548.14339.5135.7487.12118.81140.19140.19-99.96YOY20.0%27.8%6.2%10.9%-35.2%-10.9%-5.5%-70.1%-73.5%-46.9%-324.2%25.8%28.3%8.1%10.2%-38.1%-8.3%-30.7%-48.9%-58.7%-58.7%-379.7%我乐家居219.55-161.89140.52156.74121.4740.1552.1645.3736.69174.379.01197.74-193.7198.18129.6486.8439.0475.89120.39150.47150.477.89YOY42.6%-173.7%186.8%11.5%-22.5%111.4%97.3%29.2%-10.3%43.6%-77.6%49.0%-198.0%150.7%32.0%-33.0%1846.2%201.7%109.7%73.3%73.3%-79.8%兔宝宝402.71711.61445.39689.42585.25101.14166.70361.4473.00702.29148.03416.39581.50346.26583.43490.0086.71237.82332.73400.82400.8290.34YOY2.1%76.7%-37.4%54.8%-15.1%14.2%7.1%51.7%-29.0%20.0%46.4%46.3%39.7%-40.5%68.5%-16.0%7.9%1.4%-22.0%-18.2%-18.2%4.2%营业收入规模及增速收入&合同负债规模及增速归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 12图 9：定制公司分渠道收入表现（亿元）图 10：定制公司单店收入（百万元）同比数据）图 11：软体公司单店收入（百万元）24Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1欧派家居115.8162.7182.9184.027.739.641.939.5148.827.537.340.030.1135.020.5YOY6.2%40.4%12.4%0.6%-2.7%-23.8%-20.6%-22.2%-19.2%-0.7%-5.7%-4.6%-23.8%-9.3%-25.6%索菲亚68.187.095.099.488.877.7-YOY1.5%27.8%9.2%4.6%-10.7%-12.5%-志邦家居24.631.533.035.95.57.98.28.430.06.46.57.16.326.34.2YOY17.2%28.0%4.6%9.0%0.6%-17.1%-16.0%-25.1%-16.6%15.4%-17.4%-13.3%-24.9%-12.3%-33.7%金牌家居16.020.719.619.82.94.04.66.117.73.15.15.44.918.442.6YOY4.2%29.4%-5.3%0.9%-7.9%-19.5%-19.8%4.8%-10.7%5.5%28.5%15.7%-20.5%4.4%-16.0%欧派家居26.836.734.935.97.08.08.57.030.55.08.37.45.526.23.8YOY24.1%36.9%-4.8%2.6%18.8%-10.6%-29.2%-23.2%-15.1%-28.6%3.7%-13.3%-20.6%-14.0%-23.5%索菲亚15.116.015.314.513.212.4-YOY60.7%6.2%-4.9%-4.9%-8.9%-6.3%-志邦家居11.716.516.620.11.54.65.05.816.80.62.63.14.210.50.3YOY83.7%40.6%0.4%21.2%9.7%7.8%-7.4%-36.3%-16.2%-55.8%-43.4%-37.4%-27.9%-37.6%-52.5%金牌家居8.911.412.812.82.33.73.13.312.41.92.52.63.210.111.6YOY76.8%28.2%11.8%-0.3%24.7%9.7%-11.3%-17.9%-2.6%-20.2%-31.2%-17.7%-4.3%-18.6%-15.8%0.7%零售渠道大宗渠道37.4-8.1%40.3-16.2%6.55.9-11.9%7.35.914.7%-27.5%40.748.12.3%-19.3%2026Q1零售收入（百万元）10903115831626718288184031487513496门店数单店收入（万元）140.5142.4154.4162.9217.6210.8211.1190.4183.729.2YOY1.4%8.4%5.5%33.6%-0.2%-9.8%-3.5%-9.6%零售收入（百万元）7773.2-门店数-单店收入（万元）192.52187.91179.60135.15178.96231.75263.93253.62225.50-YOY-2.4%-4.4%-24.7%32.4%29.5%13.9%-3.9%-11.1%-零售收入（百万元）门店数单店收入（万元）93.4878.7675.4076.1784.2377.9178.4373.384.613.2YOY-15.7%-4.3%1.0%10.6%-7.5%0.7%-6.6%--零售收入（百万元）门店数单店收入（万元）99.3680.7871.5864.1866.1552.5750.5845.4650.947.13YOY-18.7%-11.4%-10.3%3.1%-20.5%-3.8%-10.1%--欧派家居索菲亚志邦家居金牌家居内销收入（百万元）107121030410935门店数单店收入（万元）81.885.794.0114.3165.9152.8157.4156.4166.8YOY4.8%9.6%21.6%45.1%-7.9%3.0%-0.6%6.6%线下经销（百万元）门店数单店收入（万元）88.9394.25107.4166.2188.0168.5265.2058.2057.03YOY6.0%14.0%-38.4%32.9%-22.1%-4.9%-10.7%-2.0%线下经销（百万元）----门店数----单店收入（万元）----89.7369.4773.0576.9173.39YOY------22.6%5.1%5.3%-4.6%顾家家居喜临门慕思股份请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 13图 12：家居部分公司内外销收入&增速梳理（亿元）利润端：盈利回暖可期。顾家/慕思/喜临门/悍高26Q1 归母净利率同比分别-0.7/-3.1/-6.2/-0.2pct，盈利能力下滑主要系渠道结构转变&费用投放增加，其中顾家家居26Q1 剔除汇兑影响后归母净利率为11.1%（同比+0.5pct）；此外，顾家/慕思/悍高26Q1 举办经销商大会或确认代言人、销售费用率同比+2.0/+5.5/+1.3pct，实际毛利率均同比平稳或改善。欧派/索菲亚/金牌/志邦/我乐26Q1 盈利显著承压，我们预计主要系收入规模下滑，固定生产成本&营运费用摊销不足，伴随后续季度收入回暖，盈利能力有望改善。图 13：家居部分公司盈利能力梳理总收入内销外销内销YOY外销YOY顾家家居200.6107.393.36%11%慕思股份52.349.72.6-9%67%ST喜临门88.266.621.61%1%悍高集团35.932.33.729%4%瑞尔特18.011.36.6-33%-1%欧派家居172.3167.64.7-9%10%索菲亚93.792.80.9-11%13%金牌家居33.030.03.0-4%-11%志邦家居43.639.93.6-21%78%兔宝宝88.884.54.3-5%40%总收入内销外销内销YOY外销YOY金牌家居5.04.20.8-16%5%志邦家居5.85.10.6-34%42%2026Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1顾家家居35.21% 28.87% 30.83% 32.83% 32.72% 32.39% 33.40% 31.42% 33.90% 32.76% 33.59%6.68%9.07%10.06% 10.44%7.67%10.56% 10.26%9.94%4.99%8.93%9.86%YOY0.35%-6.34%1.97%2.00%-0.11%-0.69%0.42%1.62%-1.30%0.04%1.20%-3.79%2.40%0.99%0.38%-2.78%0.90%-0.18%0.49%3.75%1.26%-0.70%慕思股份49.28% 44.98% 46.47% 50.29% 50.08% 51.84% 51.95% 53.18% 48.79% 51.34% 51.28%12.05% 10.59% 12.20% 14.38% 13.70% 10.53% 17.67%8.51%4.68%10.25%7.45%YOY-4.21%-4.30%1.50%3.82%-0.21%1.69%-0.24%3.33%0.33%1.26%-0.56%3.42%-1.45%1.60%2.19%-0.69%-1.23%1.43%-3.44%-9.52%-3.45%-3.08%ST喜临门33.76% 32.00% 32.40% 34.37% 33.67% 33.44% 38.42% 35.58% 35.22% 35.79% 28.34%5.57%7.19%3.03%4.94%3.69%4.11%8.53%6.10%-6.02%2.74%-2.13%YOY-0.99%-1.76%0.40%1.96%-0.70%-0.02%2.60%-0.91%5.20%2.12%-5.10%-2.24%1.62%-4.16%1.91%-1.25%-0.10%1.27%-0.90%-4.10%-0.96%-6.24%悍高集团28.14% 31.08% 31.67% 34.43% 35.84% 35.15% 38.97% 38.39% 35.91% 37.20% 36.23%6.45%11.16% 12.69% 14.97% 18.60% 18.46% 18.19% 20.82% 20.04% 19.57%18.24%YOY-3.84%2.93%0.60%2.76%1.41%0.37%4.26%1.80%-0.72%1.37%1.08%0.01%4.70%1.54%2.28%3.63%1.78%1.59%2.25%-1.34%0.97%-0.22%好太太48.41% 45.09% 46.37% 51.35% 47.98% 47.92% 45.30% 51.20% 50.32% 48.78% 43.63%22.91% 21.06% 15.82% 19.38% 15.96% 12.93% 12.61% 14.92% 12.39% 13.17%12.90%YOY-1.10%-3.32%1.27%4.99%-3.37%-4.02%-10.85%1.87%12.74%0.80%-4.30%0.73%-1.85%-5.24%3.57%-3.42%-6.09%-8.32%1.77%0.49%-2.79%-0.03%瑞尔特24.16% 22.59% 24.81% 28.77% 27.35% 24.69% 26.97% 26.31% 18.31% 24.19% 24.86%8.93%7.46%10.76% 10.01%7.68%5.21%5.95%2.23%-9.97%1.02%0.25%YOY-6.23%-1.58%2.22%3.96%-1.42%-5.54%-1.05%-1.04%-6.06%-3.15%0.16%-7.44%-1.47%3.31%-0.76%-2.33%-5.98%0.71%-4.00%-18.40%-6.66%-4.96%欧派家居35.01% 31.62% 31.61% 34.16% 35.91% 34.29% 37.64% 38.77% 33.08% 36.24% 35.07%13.99% 13.04% 11.96% 13.32% 13.73%8.93%14.82% 16.37%4.09%11.59%5.83%YOY-0.82%-3.39%-0.01%2.55%1.76%4.31%3.18%-1.59%-3.85%0.32%0.78%0.40%-0.95%-1.08%1.37%0.41%2.91%-0.74%-3.29%-7.17%-2.15%-3.10%索菲亚36.56% 33.21% 32.99% 36.15% 35.43% 32.61% 35.82% 36.83% 37.05% 35.70% 29.85%14.27%1.18%9.48%10.81% 13.06%0.59%12.23% 14.74%9.31%9.62%-2.53%YOY-0.77%-3.35%-0.22%3.16%-0.72%-0.01%-2.29%0.97%2.60%0.26%-2.77%0.26%-13.10%8.31%1.33%2.25%-7.24%-1.93%1.65%-6.51%-3.44%-3.12%金牌家居32.73% 30.48% 29.46% 29.58% 28.68% 29.96% 26.46% 24.38% 24.33% 25.91% 25.98%11.09%9.80%7.80%8.01%5.74%5.94%3.26%0.12%-4.59%0.66%-2.75%YOY-3.12%-2.24%-1.02%0.12%-0.91%1.95%0.72%-3.95%-7.48%-2.76%-3.98%-0.32%-1.28%-2.01%0.21%-2.28%0.26%-0.50%-5.47%-12.12%-5.07%-8.69%志邦家居38.07% 36.24% 37.69% 37.07% 36.27% 32.16% 38.84% 31.46% 30.76% 33.22% 25.86%10.30%9.81%9.96%9.73%7.33%5.15%8.87%2.99%2.46%4.70%-16.40%YOY-0.46%-1.83%1.44%-0.62%-0.80%-5.06%2.47%-5.58%-4.21%-3.05%-6.30%-0.82%-0.49%0.15%-0.23%-2.40%-0.61%1.58%-5.03%-5.08%-2.63%-21.54%我乐家居42.44% 41.32% 44.59% 46.26% 46.32% 45.94% 47.21% 46.52% 45.56% 46.30% 44.16%13.86%-9.38%8.43%9.16%8.48%12.64% 14.84% 11.76%9.27%12.02%3.86%YOY-1.39%-1.12%3.27%1.67%0.06%1.88%-0.28%-1.20%0.06%-0.02%-1.78%2.30%-23.24%17.82%0.73%-0.68%5.89%7.80%2.40%-0.96%3.54%-8.77%兔宝宝18.97% 17.70% 18.18% 18.42% 18.10% 20.86% 16.87% 16.70% 17.38% 17.54% 16.18%6.23%7.55%4.99%7.61%6.37%7.96%7.05%13.46%2.85%7.91%8.78%YOY1.82%-1.27%0.47%0.24%-0.32%2.99%-0.35%-0.37%-2.57%-0.56%-4.68%-2.28%1.32%-2.55%2.61%-1.24%1.99%0.64%4.14%-0.93%1.54%0.82%顾家家居19.69% 14.74% 16.39% 17.52% 17.82% 15.21% 18.03% 13.82% 21.58% 17.14% 17.22%12.54% 20.76% 20.40% 20.88% 14.39%5.13%4.97%5.15%2.41%16.91%4.58%YOY1.00%-4.95%1.65%1.13%0.30%-2.20%1.38%-0.17%-1.78%-0.68%2.02%-7.12%8.21%-0.35%0.47%-6.49%0.84%0.04%0.31%1.82%2.52%-0.55%慕思股份24.82% 24.63% 25.06% 25.20% 25.05% 25.56% 27.92% 32.22% 35.88% 30.70% 31.08%28.53% 26.75% 16.27% 17.29% 16.98%2.58%5.24%2.45%1.55%12.06%1.95%YOY-6.50%-0.19%0.43%0.14%-0.15%-0.99%3.87%7.00%11.18%5.66%5.52%-3.31%-1.78%-10.48%1.03%-0.31%-0.45%0.25%-0.89%-3.98%-4.92%-0.62%ST喜临门16.13% 15.36% 19.52% 20.27% 21.43% 20.24% 21.11% 21.89% 24.73% 22.21% 19.63%10.66% 17.46%6.79%11.59%8.56%1.87%5.14%3.46%-4.23%6.78%-1.01%YOY-0.54%-0.77%4.16%0.74%1.16%1.08%1.46%0.21%0.62%0.78%-0.61%-3.67%6.81%-10.67%4.80%-3.04%-0.11%0.88%-0.27%-2.84%-1.77%-2.88%悍高集团10.73%8.84%9.28%9.32%7.53%7.42%7.98%6.70%7.13%7.25%8.75%18.83% 24.30% 23.31% 27.38% 30.43%6.41%7.74%9.18%7.92%24.98%4.46%YOY-1.19%-1.89%0.44%0.04%-1.79%-1.40%-0.14%-0.30%0.30%-0.28%1.33%-7.67%5.47%-0.99%4.07%3.05%-0.16%-0.73%9.18%-2.46%-5.45%-1.94%好太太15.64% 14.26% 18.67% 20.33% 21.83% 23.30% 22.37% 24.78% 27.71% 24.80% 24.18%16.02% 15.98% 10.69% 14.25% 10.18%1.36%2.14%2.30%2.37%7.93%1.57%YOY-1.30%-1.39%4.41%1.66%1.50%1.36%-1.82%-2.23%11.77%2.97%0.87%-3.05%-0.04%-5.29%3.57%-4.08%-1.03%-1.62%0.31%-0.04%-2.25%0.21%瑞尔特4.01%5.06%6.29%10.12% 11.88% 10.95% 12.02% 13.06% 16.93% 13.22% 10.86%6.81%7.86%10.90% 10.51%8.50%1.00%1.42%0.47%-2.07%0.89%0.04%YOY-0.92%1.06%1.23%3.83%1.76%-0.70%-2.86%1.13%7.77%1.33%-0.10%-4.26%1.05%3.05%-0.40%-2.01%-1.77%-0.12%-1.23%-4.66%-7.62%-0.96%欧派家居7.78%6.78%7.47%8.70%10.01% 11.70%9.05%8.64%11.72% 10.08% 13.87%17.30% 18.50% 16.29% 16.76% 13.64%1.60%3.75%4.29%0.86%10.64%0.82%YOY-1.90%-1.00%0.69%1.23%1.31%0.11%-2.20%0.50%2.12%0.08%2.18%-1.95%1.20%-2.21%0.47%-3.11%0.41%-0.58%-1.52%-2.17%-3.01%-0.78%索菲亚9.17%9.70%9.94%9.66%9.64%9.73%8.90%9.37%11.41%9.84%13.87%19.47%2.17%18.41% 17.98% 18.39%0.16%4.30%5.16%3.01%12.18%-0.52%YOY-0.78%0.52%0.24%-0.28%-0.02%-0.42%-1.02%0.51%1.69%0.20%4.14%-0.32%-17.30%16.23%-0.43%0.41%-2.19%-1.53%-0.10%-3.22%-6.22%-0.68%金牌家居11.78% 11.76% 12.14% 12.03% 11.97% 13.72% 11.64% 12.13% 13.23% 12.59% 17.37%16.03% 14.02% 10.68% 10.55%7.09%1.23%1.02%0.04%-1.53%0.79%-0.52%YOY-4.13%-0.02%0.38%-0.11%-0.06%0.42%1.02%0.95%0.26%0.62%3.65%-4.00%-2.01%-3.34%-0.13%-3.46%-0.08%-0.19%-1.79%-4.39%-6.30%-1.75%志邦家居14.93% 14.66% 15.43% 14.55% 16.24% 17.07% 18.03% 17.00% 12.61% 15.98% 22.75%17.75% 19.51% 18.65% 18.10% 11.34%1.21%2.78%1.04%0.93%6.02%-2.86%YOY-0.68%-0.27%0.77%-0.89%1.69%-1.72%2.31%-1.22%-0.93%-0.26%5.67%0.67%1.76%-0.87%-0.55%-6.76%-0.21%-0.34%-2.60%-2.63%-5.31%-4.07%我乐家居18.07% 22.29% 23.17% 21.74% 24.76% 20.48% 22.63% 19.54% 19.52% 20.49% 23.77%19.60% ##### 13.70% 13.65%9.99%3.33%4.46%3.95%3.15%14.74%0.76%YOY-4.15%4.23%0.88%-1.43%3.02%-7.86%-2.34%-5.15%-2.60%-4.28%3.29%3.42%-38.13%32.23%-0.05%-3.66%1.70%2.17%0.91%-0.27%4.75%-2.58%兔宝宝3.77%3.42%3.68%3.26%3.44%5.07%3.51%3.29%3.66%3.71%4.25%21.64% 33.41% 18.97% 21.50% 19.19%3.26%5.35%11.48%2.24%21.27%4.39%YOY-0.30%-0.35%0.25%-0.41%0.17%0.75%-0.09%-0.13%0.86%0.28%-0.83%0.27%11.76%-14.43%2.52%-2.31%0.50%0.28%3.39%-1.19%2.08%1.12%毛利率归母净利率销售费用率ROE请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 142.2 民用电工：龙头核心业务企稳，加速产品创新公牛集团：25 全年实现收入160.26 亿元（同比-4.8%），归母净利润40.71 亿元（同比-4.7%）；26Q1 实现收入40.60 亿元（同比+3.5%），归母净利润10.58 亿元（同比+8.6%）。公司沿着智能生态、新能源、国际化三大战略方向笃定前行，持续推动传统业务产品创新与渠道深耕，同时加速数据中心、太阳能照明等业务落地。尽管终端需求疲软，公司持续创新产品且积极推动渠道效率改革，转换器、墙开、照明等核心业务份额稳定向上，新业务积极探索、出海加速发展，26Q1 公司收入仍实现平稳增长；利润方面，受益于年初提价，且前瞻性储备低价原材料（25Q4 存货环比+39.6%），且公司内生降本增效持续进行，26Q1 公司盈利能力表现优异。展望未来，我们预计后续季度公司收入仍有望保持平稳增长，利润率受高价原材料入库影响、或有所压力。图 14：公牛集团财务数据梳理（百万元）
3. 出海：结构性增长明确，强化品牌布局
3.1 出口：结构性增长明确，盈利波动放大出海依然是确定性增量市场，尽管面临关税、美伊冲突、汇率等带来的多重外部因素影响，板块龙头企业多呈现较好增长势头；此外，出口链企业内生抗风险能力持续提升，主要受益于非美收入占比提高以及非美产能占比提高，且出口企业在极端关税波动下逐步和下游客户形成较为稳定的应对措施。但需要注意的是，考虑到人民币依然在升值趋势中叠加美伊冲突带来原材料价格提升，Q2 低基数下收入增长提速明确，但企业盈利或出现进一步分化。收入表现整体稳健，部分龙头结构性成长依旧靓丽。24H2 起特朗普高调渲染关税风险，24Q4-25Q1 海外集中补库累高基数，25Q2 关税落地、出口公司业绩普遍承压。25Q3 至今关税影响逐步弱化，尽管海外下游零售商/品牌商库存磨底、尚未补库，但各公司凭借自身产品迭代、海外产能扩张、销售区域扩展，高基数下仍在25Q4/26Q1 收获稳健收入增长。展望未来，我们判断后续海外需求由于通胀压力存在、复苏判断或为时尚早、但仍能保持一定韧性，受益于基数走低，26Q2 起多数出口公司收入增长有望提速。其中，众鑫股份（25Q4/26Q1 收入同比+13.1%/+12.3%）、英科医疗（25Q4/26Q1 收入同比3.1%/+15.8%）、英科再生（25Q4/26Q1 收入同比39.1%/+28.7%）、建霖家居（25Q4/26Q1 收入同比13.5%/+14.0%）、共创草坪（25Q4/26Q1 收入同比+17.9%/+15.2%）海外产能加速投放，且我们预计海外格局优异、定价更优，量价有望齐升；永艺股份（25Q4/26Q1 收入同比+2.9%/+13.0%）、家联科技（25Q4/26Q1 收入同比+36.3%/+48.9%）海外产能扩张、产品矩阵拓宽、加速开拓非美市场；哈尔斯（25Q4/26Q1 收入同比-16.9%/+12.5%）、盈趣科技（25Q4/26Q1 收入同比+20.8%/+32.4%）核心客户份额提升。此外，匠心家居（25Q4/26Q1 收入同比+24.1%/-3.6% ）、浩洋股份（25Q4/26Q1 收入同比+25.3%/-7.4%）短暂承压，但品牌势能逐步建立，后续成长路径清晰。25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1公牛集团10051.1312384.9214081.3715694.7616830.543922.294245.634029.753828.6316026.314060.2210384.8712822.9214513.0316223.2517084.794605.154681.124642.394421.3016618.985502.68YOY0.1%23.2%13.7%11.5%7.2%3.1%-7.4%-4.4%-9.4%-4.8%3.5%2.1%23.5%13.2%11.8%5.3%-8.8%-9.4%-0.9%-1.3%-2.7%19.5%公牛集团2313.432780.363188.623870.144272.20974.921084.71919.201091.814070.631058.242221.822632.482904.153703.193741.81855.231842.472701.203624.583624.58983.60YOY0.4%20.2%14.7%21.4%10.4%4.9%-17.2%-10.3%8.2%-4.7%8.5%-0.1%18.5%10.3%27.5%1.0%4.6%-3.2%-4.9%-3.1%-3.1%15.0%公牛集团40.12%36.95%38.00%43.20%43.25%41.04%43.51%41.68%46.39%43.14%42.74%23.02%22.45%22.64%24.66%25.38%24.86%25.55%22.81%28.52%25.40%26.06%YOY-1.29%-3.17%1.05%5.20%0.04%-1.12%-0.08%-1.79%2.77%-0.11%1.70%0.07%-0.57%0.19%2.01%0.72%0.42%-3.02%-1.49%4.65%0.02%1.21%公牛集团5.15%4.52%5.68%6.82%8.14%6.57%7.03%7.38%8.61%7.38%6.52%25.32%25.85%25.72%26.79%26.93%5.96%6.87%6.05%6.73%24.23%6.11%YOY-2.07%-0.63%1.16%1.14%1.32%-0.85%-1.46%-1.81%1.27%-0.75%-0.05%-16.18%0.53%-0.13%1.07%0.14%-0.27%-2.11%-1.11%0.16%-2.69%0.16%归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速毛利率归母净利率销售费用率ROE营业收入规模及增速收入&合同负债规模及增速请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 15图 15：出口部分公司收入梳理（百万元）表现盈利承压主要系汇率波动，规模优势显现、产品结构优化，多数企业内生盈利提升。剔除汇兑以及减值影响来看，部分公司依托内部降本增效，海外产能爬坡，规模优势释放&盈利结构优化，毛利率同比表现优异，其中永艺股份26Q1 毛利率同比+1.2pct、匠心家居+0.9pct、恒林股份+2.5pct、共创草坪+2.1pct、浩洋股份+7.4pct、天振股份+5.0pct、英科再生+3.6pct、众鑫股份+1.6pct、英科医疗+2.4pct。展望未来，哈尔斯/众鑫股份/英科再生等受益于海外产能供应链逐步完善，内部加速降本、盈利仍有明确改善空间；英科医疗提价落地，行业周期上行，盈利能力有望环比高斜率扩张；其余多数公司由于原材料价格攀升，盈利能力后续或波动仍较大。25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1梦百合6530.138139.258017.247975.928449.392042.802272.932440.062156.298912.082250.86YOY70.4%24.6%-1.5%-0.5%5.9%12.3%6.8%12.0%-7.2%5.5%10.2%盈趣科技5310.257060.974345.223860.203572.76859.34960.601061.841248.834130.601137.47YOY37.8%33.0%-38.5%-11.2%-7.4%12.5%18.4%10.2%20.8%15.6%32.4%浙江自然581.34842.44945.80823.321002.35356.63328.85132.55205.481023.51377.13YOY6.7%44.9%12.3%-13.0%21.7%30.4%0.7%-30.4%-3.0%2.1%5.7%匠心家居1318.131924.961462.651921.462548.38772.51908.82830.09867.663379.09744.89YOY12.2%46.0%-24.0%31.4%32.6%38.2%40.3%29.3%24.1%32.6%-3.6%永艺股份3433.724658.624055.283538.364749.231010.311178.491294.161398.984881.941141.73YOY40.1%35.7%-13.0%-12.7%34.2%17.9%-1.4%-3.3%2.9%2.8%13.0%恒林股份4743.095777.806514.938194.5911028.922653.662693.623140.303189.5611677.153218.19YOY63.3%21.8%12.8%25.8%34.6%12.7%9.9%4.4%-0.9%5.9%21.3%乐歌股份1940.662871.283208.313901.715670.451544.321600.261701.641868.446714.651496.17YOY98.4%48.0%11.7%21.6%45.3%37.7%22.6%9.9%10.2%18.4%-3.1%久祺股份2285.563709.752376.052006.002787.88690.25809.18869.70991.433360.56747.43YOY27.3%62.3%-36.0%-15.6%39.0%30.4%47.8%22.2%-0.8%20.5%8.3%共创草坪1850.292301.662470.752461.432951.84793.12888.66792.35816.833290.96913.98YOY19.1%24.4%7.3%-0.4%19.9%15.3%8.2%5.7%17.9%11.5%15.2%嘉益股份355.59585.631259.541775.402836.37719.51680.05429.71524.092353.37424.50YOY-12.2%64.7%115.1%41.0%59.8%66.5%-7.1%-47.7%-38.4%-17.0%-41.0%家联科技1026.271234.351976.021721.162326.24505.81617.25741.66822.672687.39753.10YOY0.6%20.3%60.1%-12.9%35.2%1.3%8.7%13.1%36.3%15.5%48.9%哈尔斯1491.942388.912427.902407.123331.52704.08867.34865.55801.253238.22792.19YOY-16.8%60.1%1.6%-0.9%38.4%22.5%6.0%-11.2%-16.9%-2.8%12.5%玉马科技385.01520.38546.62663.02769.41150.91213.33189.14191.96745.33185.35YOY0.4%35.2%5.0%21.3%16.0%-4.9%5.4%-0.3%-12.2%-3.1%22.8%西大门354.25465.48499.10637.33817.09186.81232.41231.92231.16882.30195.07YOY-13.3%31.4%7.2%27.7%28.2%13.3%15.5%3.7%1.6%8.0%4.4%麒盛科技2259.912966.832663.343102.802958.08786.62672.78764.43805.933029.76868.19YOY-10.6%31.3%-10.2%16.5%-4.7%4.1%-4.2%0.1%9.5%2.4%10.4%松霖科技2034.822977.003180.532983.423014.99561.89578.29711.96767.922620.06818.72YOY17.0%46.3%6.8%-6.2%1.1%-17.5%-24.6%-4.3%-6.7%-13.1%45.7%建霖家居3835.084712.124186.254333.765006.721191.621194.871336.841395.845119.171358.66YOY13.0%22.9%-11.2%3.5%15.5%3.4%-7.3%0.2%13.5%2.2%14.0%浩洋股份399.69618.141222.701304.891211.95289.85231.79279.16333.091133.89268.44YOY-52.7%54.7%97.8%6.7%-7.1%-8.0%-34.4%0.6%25.3%-6.4%-7.4%天振股份2243.063180.992967.34311.65891.52412.24383.32404.81346.001546.37352.76YOY29.8%41.8%-6.7%-89.5%186.1%168.7%139.8%84.0%-3.4%73.5%-14.4%英科再生1698.931990.052056.062455.082923.74792.65873.37917.08963.123546.221020.08YOY33.5%17.1%3.3%19.4%19.1%25.2%9.0%15.1%39.1%21.3%28.7%众鑫股份578.42910.321315.791326.061546.20371.99303.16380.37450.101505.61417.66YOY4.0%57.4%44.5%0.8%16.6%9.9%-17.9%-13.7%13.1%-2.6%12.3%英科医疗13836.7116240.096613.816918.729523.322493.932419.512511.282501.109925.822887.03YOY564.3%17.4%-59.3%4.6%37.6%13.2%4.8%-2.9%3.1%4.2%15.8%营业收入规模及增速请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 16图 16：出口部分公司归母净利润梳理（百万元）图 17：出口部分公司利润率梳理25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1梦百合378.59-275.5341.36106.60-151.4258.7255.8346.35-170.72-9.82-38.11YOY1.3%-172.8%115.0%157.7%-242.0%196.2%70.4%122.5%-11027.9%93.5%-164.9%盈趣科技1024.961093.06693.36450.51251.5276.6461.3040.12399.01577.0793.26YOY5.3%6.6%-36.6%-35.0%-44.2%37.8%-23.4%10.5%401.8%129.4%21.7%浙江自然159.54219.51212.97130.68185.1396.0149.5836.858.98191.4271.72YOY21.4%37.6%-3.0%-38.6%41.7%148.3%-20.1%-40.6%-59.8%3.4%-25.3%匠心家居205.60298.44334.11407.39682.94194.09237.81225.63199.95857.48166.42YOY82.0%45.2%12.0%21.9%67.6%60.4%44.7%55.1%-20.7%25.6%-14.3%永艺股份232.50181.33335.21297.88296.2057.5574.9958.9441.28232.7872.04YOY28.2%-22.0%84.9%-11.1%-0.6%34.8%-10.3%-40.2%-42.2%-21.4%25.2%恒林股份363.28337.66352.86263.10263.0651.86129.5197.40-114.93163.8458.98YOY49.3%-7.1%4.5%-25.4%0.0%-49.5%10.4%111.7%-3834.2%-37.7%13.7%乐歌股份217.09184.68218.73633.69335.8951.7777.2439.9790.49259.470.81YOY244.7%-14.9%18.4%189.7%-47.0%-35.2%-3.9%-62.0%28.4%-22.8%-98.4%久祺股份156.75205.21167.86106.47122.7740.8446.2642.2018.73148.0317.07YOY53.7%30.9%-18.2%-36.6%15.3%90.0%33.9%58.9%-53.4%20.6%-58.2%共创草坪410.92380.29447.03431.22511.25155.99188.64170.58152.46667.67200.74YOY44.4%-7.5%17.5%-3.5%18.6%28.7%16.4%54.5%29.6%30.6%28.7%嘉益股份64.8482.17271.91472.03732.94151.82152.7662.9369.64437.1661.42YOY-9.8%26.7%230.9%73.6%55.3%41.3%-27.2%-70.6%-65.5%-40.4%-59.5%家联科技114.3471.20179.2245.3657.00-24.96-39.71-9.14-1.89-75.71-98.61YOY52.8%-37.7%151.7%-74.7%25.7%-157.5%-316.7%-268.3%81.3%-232.8%-295.1%哈尔斯-28.31135.50205.91249.78286.5441.4449.918.77-29.9270.201.21YOY-151.4%578.7%52.0%21.3%14.7%31.6%-48.6%-90.9%-148.6%-75.5%-97.1%玉马科技108.05140.32156.65165.04185.6130.1943.9036.4238.27148.7827.86YOY-1.0%29.9%11.6%5.4%12.5%-17.6%-11.6%-12.8%-33.5%-19.8%-7.7%西大门77.8489.5082.0491.14122.2623.0332.7732.1323.74111.6720.05YOY-11.9%15.0%-8.3%11.1%34.1%-1.1%3.4%0.7%-32.8%-8.7%-12.9%麒盛科技273.43357.1225.63205.67156.0444.4861.1841.33-42.06104.9433.72YOY-30.8%30.6%-92.8%702.6%-24.1%-1.0%52.4%-37.4%-957.2%-32.7%-24.2%松霖科技270.49301.30261.14352.49446.4245.4647.6365.5646.76205.4195.41YOY15.5%11.4%-13.3%35.0%26.6%-59.2%-56.7%-34.1%-62.8%-54.0%109.9%建霖家居364.97376.33458.06424.83481.93123.38114.86110.2792.20440.7194.31YOY9.3%3.1%21.7%-7.3%13.4%0.5%-15.7%-19.9%8.1%-8.6%-23.6%浩洋股份88.13135.96356.17366.17301.6953.2624.4956.5037.80172.0641.58YOY-55.1%54.3%162.0%2.8%-17.6%-47.0%-76.1%2.0%-12.8%-43.0%-21.9%天振股份372.38279.35379.15-266.90-37.2527.4722.0135.76-1.0084.2538.66YOY10.0%-25.0%35.7%-170.4%86.0%375.2%196.1%476.0%-119.4%326.2%40.7%英科再生217.28239.78230.77195.65307.3272.3273.5080.4459.47285.7351.04YOY128.2%10.4%-3.8%-15.2%57.1%0.0%-11.3%104.1%-47.3%-7.0%-29.4%众鑫股份115.3999.61190.52231.44323.8672.1944.3181.3468.40266.2393.82YOY3.9%-13.7%91.3%21.5%39.9%14.5%-39.8%-18.1%-22.2%-17.8%30.0%英科医疗7007.057430.08629.07383.001465.48352.72357.72213.9786.291010.7010.03YOY3829.6%6.0%-91.5%-39.1%282.6%48.1%2.5%113.0%-88.9%-31.0%-97.2%归母净利润及增速25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1梦百合36.85%39.37%39.08%39.96%38.63%39.28%38.61%-1.79%2.87%2.46%1.90%-7.92%-0.11%-1.69%YOY-1.50%0.84%1.29%4.35%2.77%2.42%-0.76%-3.13%1.78%0.92%11.33%-7.98%1.68%-4.57%盈趣科技28.36%28.82%27.09%25.75%30.09%28.01%28.63%7.04%8.92%6.38%3.78%31.95%13.97%8.20%YOY-2.33%1.24%-2.13%-0.88%0.21%-0.35%-0.19%-4.63%1.64%-3.49%0.01%24.26%6.93%-0.72%浙江自然33.72%38.83%31.09%28.23%25.51%32.30%34.23%18.47%26.92%15.08%27.80%4.37%18.70%19.02%YOY-0.12%0.47%-5.13%-1.07%-2.33%-1.43%-4.61%2.60%12.78%-3.92%-4.80%-6.17%0.23%-7.90%匠心家居39.35%37.21%39.42%38.27%41.98%39.29%38.13%26.80%25.13%26.17%27.18%23.04%25.38%22.34%YOY5.40%3.89%6.29%3.62%-12.29%-0.06%0.93%5.60%3.49%0.81%4.52%-13.02%-1.42%-2.78%永艺股份21.64%20.65%22.82%20.46%18.28%20.45%21.86%6.24%5.70%6.36%4.55%2.95%4.77%6.31%YOY-1.24%-1.47%-0.56%-1.97%-0.74%-1.19%1.21%-2.18%0.71%-0.63%-2.81%-2.30%-1.47%0.61%恒林股份18.64%16.27%19.46%17.56%20.64%18.55%18.75%2.39%1.95%4.81%3.10%-3.60%1.40%1.83%YOY-5.15%-8.53%1.80%3.24%1.74%-0.09%2.47%-0.83%-2.41%0.02%1.57%-3.51%-0.98%-0.12%乐歌股份29.15%25.93%25.45%26.79%30.37%27.27%28.58%5.92%3.35%4.83%2.35%4.84%3.86%0.05%YOY-7.38%-5.37%-5.94%-0.68%2.86%-1.88%2.65%-10.32%-3.77%-1.33%-4.45%0.69%-2.06%-3.30%久祺股份13.60%12.98%14.78%13.62%14.42%14.00%13.66%4.40%5.92%5.72%4.85%1.89%4.40%2.28%YOY-1.42%0.14%-0.10%0.36%0.88%0.40%0.67%-0.90%1.86%-0.59%1.12%-2.13%0.00%-3.63%共创草坪30.01%32.55%33.85%35.74%34.76%34.22%34.61%17.32%19.67%21.23%21.53%18.66%20.29%21.96%YOY-1.57%2.07%2.55%7.12%5.25%4.21%2.06%-0.20%2.06%1.50%6.80%1.68%2.97%2.29%嘉益股份37.67%33.89%33.52%25.83%24.54%30.23%25.48%25.84%21.10%22.46%14.64%13.29%18.58%14.47%YOY-3.05%-4.81%-6.74%-13.51%-8.76%-7.44%-8.41%-0.75%-3.77%-6.20%-11.38%-10.44%-7.26%-6.63%家联科技17.62%14.37%12.82%17.15%9.15%13.19%11.55%2.45%-4.93%-6.43%-1.23%-0.23%-2.82%-13.09%YOY-1.61%-4.95%-5.95%-0.97%-5.43%-4.43%-2.82%-0.18%-13.62%-9.66%-2.06%1.45%-5.27%-8.16%哈尔斯28.00%28.66%28.76%23.60%20.43%25.30%25.71%8.60%5.89%5.75%1.01%-3.73%2.17%0.15%YOY-3.20%1.24%-2.62%-6.68%-2.73%-2.70%-2.95%-1.78%0.41%-6.13%-8.86%-10.12%-6.43%-5.73%玉马科技40.00%40.68%39.11%39.85%35.68%38.73%35.66%24.12%20.00%20.58%19.26%19.94%19.96%15.03%YOY-0.54%1.27%-1.94%-1.30%-2.79%-1.27%-5.02%-0.77%-3.08%-3.96%-2.77%-6.37%-4.16%-4.97%西大门41.90%44.00%45.08%44.79%42.56%44.11%47.13%14.96%12.33%14.10%13.85%10.27%12.66%10.28%YOY3.18%4.04%2.36%0.83%1.98%2.21%3.13%0.66%-1.81%-1.65%-0.42%-5.27%-2.31%-2.05%麒盛科技34.85%33.27%34.39%32.27%34.03%33.47%31.77%5.28%5.65%9.09%5.41%-5.22%3.46%3.88%YOY-1.82%0.41%1.42%-2.56%-4.69%-1.38%-1.51%-1.35%-0.29%3.38%-3.24%-5.88%-1.81%-1.77%松霖科技35.37%32.59%34.40%32.48%32.99%33.08%32.37%14.81%8.09%8.24%9.21%6.09%7.84%11.65%YOY0.35%-2.95%-0.75%-3.03%-2.33%-2.30%-0.22%2.99%-8.26%-6.10%-4.16%-9.18%-6.97%3.56%建霖家居25.90%27.08%26.55%25.09%24.79%25.81%24.84%9.63%10.35%9.61%8.25%6.61%8.61%6.94%YOY-0.08%0.04%0.71%-0.97%0.09%-0.08%-2.25%-0.18%-0.30%-0.95%-2.06%-0.33%-1.02%-3.41%浩洋股份50.37%49.41%51.97%54.77%50.30%51.51%56.82%24.89%18.37%10.57%20.24%11.35%15.17%15.49%YOY0.41%-3.25%0.84%3.28%4.80%1.14%7.41%-3.17%-13.53%-18.39%0.27%-4.95%-9.72%-2.89%天振股份10.10%16.90%17.85%18.81%21.18%18.60%21.88%-4.18%6.66%5.74%8.83%-0.29%5.45%10.96%YOY17.10%10.32%15.51%14.36%2.64%8.49%4.98%81.46%13.17%20.07%13.15%-1.72%9.63%4.30%英科再生24.80%25.51%25.05%24.57%23.49%24.60%29.07%10.51%9.12%8.42%8.77%6.17%8.06%5.00%YOY-0.89%-1.02%-0.77%-0.22%1.43%-0.20%3.57%2.54%-2.30%-1.92%3.83%-10.11%-2.45%-4.12%众鑫股份35.00%34.20%28.46%33.78%34.24%32.95%35.77%20.95%19.41%14.62%21.38%15.20%17.68%22.46%YOY3.04%1.17%-7.91%-0.46%-2.00%-2.05%1.57%3.49%0.77%-5.32%-1.15%-6.88%-3.26%3.06%英科医疗23.64%24.16%24.30%22.66%25.38%24.12%26.57%15.39%14.14%14.78%8.52%3.45%10.18%0.35%YOY9.94%3.51%1.21%-0.70%-1.79%0.49%2.41%9.85%3.33%-0.32%4.64%-28.63%-5.21%-13.80%毛利率归母净利率请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 173.2 跨境电商：全球化布局推进，品牌化发展加速跨境电商行业25 年增速放缓，26Q1 有回暖迹象。根据海关总署数据，25 年我国跨境电商进出口总额约为2.75 万亿元（同比+4.6%），增速较24 年有所放缓，我们认为主要系25 年以美国为代表的海外国家关税政策变化对跨境电商行业造成压制，但26Q1 开始增速已有较明显回暖。我们持续看好海外消费市场线上渠道渗透率提升会是国货出海重要机遇，跨境电商头部卖家发力品牌战略，通过推进供应链全球化布局强化经营韧性，有望持续提升市场份额。图 18：我国跨境电商进出口额（万亿元，%）外部环境仍较为复杂，业内卖家盈利能力面临诸多挑战。25 年及26Q1 我国跨境电商行业外部环境趋于复杂，业内企业成本费用端面临诸多不确定因素。（1）关税：25 年以美国为主的海外国家对中国出口商品关税有大幅增加，但从最新情况来看，根据美国最高法院26 年2 月裁定，美国已启动关税退还行动，对25 年推进全球化的企业而言，后续供应链安排或趋于灵活。（2）汇率：25Q4 以来，人民币较美元、欧元两大国际主要货币呈升值趋势，跨境电商企业面临的汇兑损失风险显著提升，也更加考验企业外汇管理能力。（3）海运价格：受伊以冲突等国际事件影响，全球燃油价格上涨，一定程度上对全球海运价格造成刺激，25Q4 以来中国/东亚-地中海的集装箱运价指数呈上升趋势，或增大跨境电商企业头程运费成本。图 19：人民币对美元、欧元汇率（元）图 20：部分线路国际海运价格指数0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%0.00.51.01.52.02.53.02026Q1我国跨境电商进出口额yoy6.56.76.97.17.37.57.77.98.18.38.52024/1/22024/3/22024/5/22024/7/22024/9/22024/11/22025/1/22025/3/22025/5/22025/7/22025/9/22025/11/22026/1/22026/3/2人民币对美元中间价人民币对欧元中间价10000120002024/1/52025/1/52026/1/5波罗的海集装箱运价指数:中国/东亚-地中海波罗的海集装箱运价指数:中国/东亚-北美东海岸请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1825 年&26Q1 板块整体营收端稳健增长，26Q1 利润端受汇兑损失等因素影响有所承压，我们预计26Q2，随着头部企业主动应对落地，业绩表现有望环比提升。此外，跨境龙头均加速品牌化发展，持续强化品牌知名度提升，同时基于平台头部排名逐步将优势产品外延至海外龙头线下零售商体系。收入：收入端普遍增长稳健，26 年头部企业有望进一步提速。（1）安克创新：25 年实现营收305.1 亿元（同比+23.5%）；26Q1 实现营收76.1亿元（同比+26.9%），在中国境内/境外分别实现收入同比+40.1%/+26.4%，线上/线下渠道分别同比+25.2%/+30.8%，其中公司官网收入同比+46.7%，占总营收10.70%。我们看好公司作为业内领军企业，全球化布局壁垒深厚，持续完善“线上+线下”全渠道销售网络，成长稳健性良好。（2）致欧科技：25 年实现营收87.0 亿元（同比+7.1%），26Q1 实现营收23.1 亿元（同比+10.7%），增速环比加快。公司2026 年将强化产品开发，尤其增加大家居品类布局，持续巩固欧洲亚马逊家居垂类市场龙头地位，并在美国市场推动亚马逊SC向亚马逊VC 模式转化，依托多仓直发优化产业链结构（放大流量优势&优化成本结构），此外持续拓展新兴市场，切入线下核心市场，我们看好接下来表现呈现向上态势。（3）赛维时代：25 年实现营收118.2 亿元（同比+15.0%），26Q1 实现营收27.2亿元（同比+10.7%）。我们预计2026Q1 公司服饰业务增长带动营收表现，接下来服饰业务有望贯彻品牌出海战略持续成长，通过赛事赞助、名人联名、时尚走秀、IP联名等提升品牌知名度，且持续拓展非美市场和线下渠道，而非服饰配饰业务库存风险大幅降低且人员持续调整，预计调整或接近尾声。利润：26Q1 安克创新、致欧科技、赛维时代均有所承压。25 年头部品牌利润表现与营收增速基本匹配，但26Q1 安克创新、致欧科技、赛维时代利润端均有所承压，我们认为主要系汇兑损益等非经营性因素拖累，吉宏股份表现相对较优。图 21：跨境电商行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%）盈利能力：26Q1 头部企业毛利率基本稳定，财务费用率增长较多。25 年业内头部企业毛、净利率多数保持相对稳定，我们认为在关税等外部因素大幅波动的环境下难能可贵，反映出企业供应链全球布局、定价机制调整等应对方式起到良好效果；26Q1 毛利率则继续保持相对稳定，但期间费用方面，财务费用率普遍有明显提高，我们认为主要系汇率波动导致企业汇兑损失增加所致。展望后续，一方面仍然面临多重外部因素影响，另一方面龙头企业基于供应链和规模优势，逐步构建全球化采购体系及价格优势显著的头程、尾程优势，预计盈利能力有望保持稳定。请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 19图 22：跨境电商行业主要公司盈利能力（%）图 23：跨境电商行业主要公司期间费率（%）
4. 黄金珠宝：需求端延续分化，头部品牌商业模式进化
金饰与投资金消费重量增速剪刀差扩大，需求端延续分化。我们基于中国黄金协会披露的黄金制品消费重量与上海金交所金价进行测算，得到金饰品类历年量价拆分情况以及投资金重量增速，总体来说，消费重量和金价呈现一定负向关系，但不同阶段，考虑金价上行斜率以及产品创新，呈现不同消费心理，2024-2025 年金价加速上行期，金饰消费GMV 的CAGR 相较于2019-2023 年金价稳定上行期不升反降，我们认为该现象主要系金饰本质是消费品而非投资品，难以脱离价增量减基本框架，金价过高普遍引起终端消费者观望情绪，而金饰与投资金消费重量增速的剪刀差自2024 年以来持续扩大，体现需求端的消费需求与投资需求正在显著分化。2026Q1行业投资金消费重量增速显著加快，金饰则继续呈现价增量减态势。图 24：我国黄金首饰与投资金消费情况-100%-50%0%50%100%2026Q1金饰消费重量增速投资金消费重量增速沪金均价增速金饰GMV增速请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 20金饰中古法金与硬金占比持续提升，定价黄金趋势向好。按制造工艺与设计通常将金饰划分为普货与非普货，非普货如古法黄金与硬金均运用特殊工艺搭配独特设计，赋予产品情绪价值、审美价值、文化价值等。在当前金价高企背景下，金饰景气度虽有所承压，但产品附加值更高的古法黄金与硬金反而逐渐成为金饰主流，反映出消费者金饰需求正在升级，更加愿意为产品附加值买单，其理性体现在将金饰视为可选消费品，满足情绪价值等一系列需求外，其保值增值属性当下具备突出优势，这亦是我们继续看好精品金饰未来景气的基础。作为精品金饰销售模式的一类细分，定价黄金近年亦呈现出突出景气度，以龙头周大福为例，其内地定价类产品的销售占比从2023Q4 的6.9%提升至2026Q1 的36.2%。图 25：我国黄金首饰市场工艺结构图 26：周大福中国内地定价类产品销售占比建议优先沿K 型曲线关注能够抓住结构性增长机遇的品牌。当前金价环境下，大盘动销仍有压力，板块内营收端延续分化态势，老铺、菜百、潮宏基等少数特色品牌保持营收正增长，但利润端业内公司多数实现正增长，其中有金价上涨带来的盈利贡献，我们也看到头部品牌商业模式的升级已现端倪。收入：品牌间分化明显，差异化品牌优于传统品牌。（1）老铺黄金：25 年实现营收273.0 亿元（同比+221.0%），延续现象级增长表现，26Q1 实现收入约165.0-175.0 亿元，表现亮眼。我们认为老铺黄金高增主要系同店销售增长带动（25 年同店收入增速约160.6%），品牌定位高端化具备稀缺性，持续破圈带来客群快速扩张，品牌势能突出。（2）潮宏基：25 年实现营收93.2 亿元（同比+43.0%），26Q1 实现营收25.0 亿元（同比+10.9%），呈现良好增长态势，门店数量保持较快扩张势头，作为精品金饰代表性品牌，成功塑造“年轻、时尚、会玩”的品牌形象，根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，公司授权IP 数量与黄金串珠手链市场份额均位列行业第一。（3）菜百股份：25 年实现营收288.2 亿元（同比+42.4%），26Q1 实现营收142.7亿元（同比+73.6%），增速突出，我们认为主要系投资金品类显著带动，在我国的黄金增值税改革后，公司作为上金所第一批综合类会员单位，可直接从上金所采购黄金原材料，叠加全直营模式，造就投资金品类α。（4）港资品牌：以六福集团、周大福为代表，我们预计FY2026 有望实现营收同比正增长，主要系港资品牌品牌积淀深厚，在产品推新、门店运营等方面调整较快，顺应行业变化实现良好增长。近年来随着金价涨至高位，消费者需求分化已是共识，作为品牌方，应对的核心思路应当是“直面需求”，有两条路径可选，一是倚仗直营渠道，如老铺黄金、菜百股份以及港资品牌，周大生亦显著强化自营渠道布局（国家宝藏），自主管理自然如臂0%20%40%60%80%100%普货黄金古法黄金硬金（3D/5D/5G）等0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%周大福中国内地定价类产品销售占比请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 21指使，但痛点是重资本投入，而近年金价上行恰好为想发力直营的品牌进行投资托底，二是掌握加盟渠道，老派做法对加盟商是“放养模式”，现在要掌握加盟渠道情况，本质上是考验品牌运营赋能，潮宏基通过数字化技术分析终端需求，指引产品研发、门店运营、品牌宣传等。头部品牌利润增速表现普遍优于营收。利润方面除个别品牌外，头部品牌25 年及26Q1 普遍实现归母净利润正增长，且优于营收端，我们认为主要系多维度因素促成盈利能力提升，以下具体分析。图 27：黄金珠宝行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%）盈利能力：多数头部品牌在金价、产品结构等多因素支撑下提升。25 年&26Q1 黄金珠宝行业多数公司实现归母净利率同比提升，其中毛利率提升成为重要支撑，我们认为毛利率提升既有金价上涨抬升产品售价（尤其一口价产品售价提升、但金价阶段性下行）的因素，也有企业优化产品与门店运营，商业模式进化带来销售附加值提升的因素，具体来看：（1）老铺黄金：25 年毛利率为37.6%（同比-3.5pct），主要系公司2025 年前两次调价后金价持续快速上涨，拖累毛利率表现，但25 年10 月第三次调价后毛利率已重新回到40%以上；期间费用率同比-4.2pct，主要系同店销售同比大幅增长，门店经营杠杆显著优化，摊薄相关费用，归母净利率在此支撑下实现同比+0.5pct。（2）潮宏基：25 年毛利率为22.1%（同比-1.5pct），26Q1 毛利率为26.9%（同比+4.0pct），25 年/26Q1 归母净利率分别同比+2.4pct/+2.2pct，我们认为公司盈利能力提升一方面得益于产品结构优化，26Q1 毛利较高的时尚珠宝首饰收入增长超过30%，显著增厚毛利额，另一方面则主要系经营杠杆凸显，公司通过发力加盟渠道实现轻资产扩张，随着加盟渠道占比提升利好净利率提升。（3）周大生：25 年/26Q1 毛利率分别同比+10.6pct/+13.2pct，归母净利率则分别同比+5.2/+5.6pct，我们认为显著提升的原因一为渠道结构变化（运营能力更强的直营渠道占比提升），二为金价上涨受益；此外，公司26 年4 月起将克重黄金品牌使用费从12 元/克提至24 元/克，有望增强未来盈利韧性。请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 22图 28：黄金珠宝行业主要公司盈利能力（%）图 29：黄金珠宝行业主要公司期间费率（%）
5. 潮玩：关注高增后的战略方向，泡泡玛特稀缺性突出
25 年潮玩行业快速发展，泡泡玛特率先探索以IP 为核心的集团化发展。25 年我国潮玩市场快速发展，根据弗若斯特沙利文预测，整体规模有望同比增长15%达到877亿元，同时以泡泡玛特为代表的本土潮玩品牌国际化布局取得突破性进展。在实现高速增长后，泡泡玛特更新战略规划，提出探索以IP 为核心的集团化发展，持续布局多元化业务，包括泡泡玛特城市乐园预计于26 年暑假完成部分区域设备升级，25年公司在北京、上海分别开设首家“popop”饰品店，推出独立甜品品牌“POP BAKERY”（预计26H1 开出独立门店），26 年3 月19 日，公司与索尼影业正式官宣，双方将请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 23联合开发THE MONSTERS（LABUBU）的真人动画电影；此外公司推出首个家电产品THE MONSTERS 生活家系列冷藏箱，26 年4 月30 日开售，两个款式各限量发售999 台。我们认为，通过影视、动画、游戏、社交媒体等路径丰富IP 文化，为消费者打造跨媒介的IP 内容生态是头部IP 发展的必经之路，泡泡玛特在本土潮玩公司中布局遥遥领先，稀缺性突出。图 30：我国潮流玩具市场规模及增速（亿元，%）图 31：泡泡玛特THE MONSTERS 生活家系列冷藏箱板块整体25 年营收利润增长良好，26 年或普遍面临高基数压力，梳理业务思路，理清长期成长逻辑或是26 年主旋律。收入&利润：25 年经营业绩增长良好，26 年趋势向好。（1）泡泡玛特：25 年实现营收371.2 亿元（同比+184.7%）、净利润127.8 亿元（同比+308.8%）。分区域看，25 年公司中国市场实现收入208.5 亿元（同比+134.6%），亚太/美洲/欧洲及其他市场分别实现收入同比+158%/+748%/+506%，我们预计26年公司在海外市场仍会延续渠道扩张策略，尤其在美国市场门店扩张或更快，通过优化组织、供应链、渠道等布局，强化本土化运营。分IP 来看，The Monsters 系列25 年贡献收入141.6 亿元（同比+366%），占收入比重38.1%（同比+14.8pct），公司艺术家IP 收入贡献占比提升至90.0%（同比+4.7pct），已有17 个IP 营收突破1亿元，其中新锐IP 星星人营收达20.6 亿元，后续成为新的现象级爆款IP。（2）布鲁可：25 年实现营收29.1 亿元（同比+30.0%）、净利润6.3 亿元（24 年为-4.0 亿元），扭亏为盈且表现靓丽。分地区看，25H2 中国/亚洲（不含中国）/北美收入为13.68/0.75/1.07 亿元（同比+19.8%/+138.6%/+629.9%），北美地区H2 收入环比翻倍增长、美国&印尼已成为海外收入最多的国家；分品类看，核心IP 结构占比逐步均衡（四大核心IP 占比从92%降至83%，其中奥特曼/变形金刚/英雄无限/假面骑士收入增速分别为-25.6%/+109.6%/-14.8%/+94.8%），拼搭载具（积木车）25 年11 月上市后迅速起量，收入高达0.43 亿元。图 32：潮玩行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%）0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%2025E我国潮流玩具市场规模YOY23H123H224H124H225H125H2泡泡玛特4490.654617.322813.813487.196301.004557.838479.9213037.7513876.2823243.7837120.05YOY78.7%2.8%19.3%54.4%36.5%62.0%143.2%106.9%204.4%174.1%184.7%布鲁可329.77325.57309.94566.75876.691046.201194.732240.931338.011575.332913.34YOY-1.3%169.3%237.6%110.8%155.6%27.9%31.9%30.0%小黄鸭德盈290.02192.6157.0972.45129.5459.9268.61128.5382.3190.22172.54YOY24.2%-33.6%-37.8%-28.2%-32.7%4.9%-5.3%-0.8%37.4%31.5%34.2%泡泡玛特854.34475.66476.58605.771082.34921.332204.143125.474574.378201.3212775.69YOY63.2%-44.3%43.2%324.1%127.5%93.3%263.9%188.8%396.5%272.1%308.8%布鲁可-502.59-419.89-201.87-4.23-206.10-257.89-143.15-401.05296.51337.23633.74YOY-16.5%-50.9%27.8%3281.0%94.6%-215.0%-335.6%扭亏小黄鸭德盈51.4066.98-14.63-27.52-42.15-15.85-27.92-43.77-9.80-68.90-78.70YOY12.3%30.3%-7.5%-133.2%-162.9%8.3%1.5%3.8%-38.2%146.8%79.8%营业收入规模及增速归母净利润及增速请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 24盈利能力：业内企业分化明显，泡泡玛特表现明显更优。泡泡玛特25 年毛利率为72.1%（同比+5.3pct），经调整净利率为35.3%（同比+9.1pct）；期间费用方面，销售/ 管理+ 研发/ 财务费用率分别为21.8%/4.8%/-0.2% ，分别同比-6.2pct/-2.5pct/+1.1pct，规模效应显著。布鲁可25 年毛利率为46.82%（同比-5.8pct）、经调整净利率为23.2%（同比-2.9pct），我们认为盈利承压主要系公司正处于新品推广阶段，销售&研发费用率维持高位，同时全价格带同步扩张，低价产品占比提升；公司表示26 年将提升产研效率，聚焦优势产品领域，并继续加大对销售及营销领域的投入，重点深化海外渠道拓展（特别是北美和欧洲区域），我们判断未来整体毛利率将有所提升、费用率或将维持小幅向上，整体净利率保持平稳。图 33：潮玩行业主要公司盈利能力（%）图 34：潮玩行业主要公司期间费率（%）
6. 新型烟草：思摩尔增长提速，中烟香港产业链优化
海外龙头加速产品迭代、区域扩张，新型烟草渗透率持续提升。25 年菲莫国际/英美烟草/日本烟草/帝国烟草收入分别同比+7.3%/-1.0%/+10.1%/+1.9%，其中新型烟草收入同比增速分别为+12.4%/+5.5%/+23.9%/+11.9%，龙头主动推动新型烟草渗透率提升。其中，菲莫国际全球HNB 市占率稳定在76%，积极扩展产品矩阵（口含烟/雾化全年销量同比分别+18.5%/+100%）；英美烟草雾化边际改善，加速推广高端HNB 新品HILO；日本烟草上市新品AURA、25Q4 HNB 销量同比+40.7%。此外，日烟/英美均提到26 年将加速新品（AURO/HILO）的全球扩张步伐，凭借创新的功能、拓宽的价格带、差异化的吸食体验，有望带动HNB 行业渗透率加速提升。图 35：四大烟草龙头新型烟草收入占比0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%菲莫国际英美烟草帝国烟草日本烟草请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 25国内供应商蓄势待发，全球份额有望加速提升。思摩尔国际：HNB 增量落地，雾化稳健成长。25H2 收入同比+21.9%，经调后利润同比+5.1%；26Q1 收入同比+41.7%，经调利润同比+25.7%（剔除医疗&股份支付费用）。26Q1 公司HNB 收入实现6.64 亿元（同比+1324.9%），已在报表端贡献显著增量，后续伴随大客户营销力度加强+区域扩张+产品迭代，公司自身HNB 业务全年有望超预期增长；26Q1 雾化&特殊用途产品/APV 分别实现收入25.24 亿元/5.81亿元（同比分别+21.8%/+14.3%）。我们预计雾化业务欧美均实现稳健增长，且受益于美国执法严格、欧洲创新产品份额提升，26 年雾化稳健增长有望延续。中烟香港：内生经营模式优化，盈利能力有望持续提升。25H2 收入同比-2.5%，归母净利润同比+30.2%，公司全年收入实现稳健增长，新烟&巴西经营等承压板块H2边际复苏显著；烟叶&卷烟出口产品结构改善、销售模式优化，盈利能力提升，助力整体利润率稳步上行。新型烟草方面，公司H2 销量同比降幅逐步收窄、环比表现靓丽（环比+257.6%），我们预计未来供应端产品优化有望推动终端市场份额回暖，26年有望重返高增通道。此外，公司26 年卷烟出口境内关外营业模式改革，有望推动整体盈利能力持续创新高。图 36：思摩尔国际财务数据一览图 37：中烟香港财务数据一览
7. 智能眼镜：产品加速迭代，核心供应商叙事积极
行业延续高增，产品加速迭代。根据Wellsenn XR 数据，2025 全年全球AI 智能眼镜销量达766 万台（同比+401%），其中中国AI 智能眼镜销量57 万台（同比+889%）、海外销量为705 万台（同比+480%）；Meta 全球年销量超600 万台、稳坐龙头。展望未来，Wellsenn 预计26 年全球销量为1600 万台，并预计28 年达到5000 万台。受益于配套产业链逐步成熟，26 年新品在垂直类领域持续深化（科大讯飞AI 翻译眼镜、Meta 新品聚焦近视人群），行业痛点逐步解决、市场有望加速扩容。单位：百万元2021A2022A2023A2024A2025H12025H22025A收益13755.2412144.9811168.4211798.666013.298242.8814256.17YOY37.42%-11.71%-8.04%5.64%19.38%21.91%20.83%期內溢利5286.972510.321645.091303.26492.15569.451061.60YOY120.30%-52.52%-34.47%-20.78%-27.96%-8.16%-18.54%经调整后溢利5560.772889.621941.551509.23734.41795.181529.59YOY131.71%-48.04%-32.81%-22.27%-2.45%5.13%1.35%毛利率53.60%43.30%38.80%37.40%37.30%31.77%34.10%期间费用率12.74%24.18%26.00%29.19%32.74%21.59%26.30%销售费用率1.40%3.19%4.71%7.79%10.37%3.52%6.41%管理+研发费用率11.15%20.75%21.04%21.07%22.15%17.92%19.70%财务费用率0.18%0.24%0.24%0.32%0.23%0.16%0.19%经调整后净利率40.43%23.79%17.38%12.79%12.21%9.65%10.73%单位：百万港元2025H12025H2主营业务收入8064.128324.2111836.2213074.2410316.254,262.8214579.07YOY131.67%3.23%42.19%10.46%18.52%-2.46%11.51%毛利445.23843.941088.321377.64946.48526.661473.14YOY223.02%89.55%28.96%26.58%-1.84%27.39%6.93%归母净利润573.97332.33546.23805.33706.35273.93980.29YOY618.67%-42.10%64.36%47.44%9.79%30.20%21.72%毛利率5.52%10.14%9.19%10.54%9.17%12.35%10.10%归母净利率7.12%3.99%4.61%6.16%6.85%6.43%6.72%请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 26图 38：全球智能眼镜销量（百万台）图 39：中国智能眼镜销量（百万台）眼视光配套龙头主营稳健，智能眼镜逐步贡献增量。25Q4/26Q1 明月镜片、博士眼镜收入增速同比分别为7.5%/18.3%、-2.7%/+8.3%，归母净利润同比增速分别为10.2%/19.1%、201.7%/32.2%；康耐特光学25H2 收入同比+1.6%，净利润同比+29.8%。我们预计业绩增长驱动主要为各公司自身产品结构改善（功能型、高端产品占比提升）以及渠道扩张；智能眼镜相关业务目前占比有限，但各龙公司前期布局逐步完善，未来有望充分受益。其中：1）康耐特光学：公司XR 业务历经三年发展，领先优势已受全球客户认可。26 年公司宣布战略投资Rokid，进一步深化产业布局；并公布已与全球领先科技企业签署合作备忘录（正式成为其主力智能眼镜产品核心供应商），公司预计26 年XR 业务将释放明确收入、利润贡献。2）明月镜片：作为小米AI 眼镜独家光学合作伙伴，依托线上小米有品及线下400 余家合作门店，公司深度触达终端，我们预计未来公司有望开发更多头部消费电子厂商，抢占AI 眼镜规模化普及的行业红利。3）博士眼镜：公司逐步推进连锁眼镜门店升级改造，已在160 余家零售门店内铺设智能眼镜专柜；目前已与阿里、雷鸟创新等业内头部品牌开展合作。图 40：部分眼镜公司财务数据梳理（百万元）图 41：康耐特财务数据一览0%100%200%300%400%500%600%2023Q1 2023Q3 2024Q1 2024Q3 2025Q1 2025Q3全球AI智能眼镜销量YOY0%200%400%600%800%1000%1200%1400%2024Q12024Q32025Q12025Q3中国AI智能眼镜销量YOY25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1明月镜片539.68575.57623.07748.74770.30197.14202.03227.20201.13827.50233.25545.71581.27627.83755.46777.06202.78207.21232.23210.49836.86238.09YOY-2.3%6.6%8.3%20.2%2.9%2.6%4.7%14.6%7.5%7.4%18.3%-2.8%6.5%8.0%20.3%2.9%2.9%4.1%14.0%8.6%7.7%17.4%博士眼镜656.31887.47962.241175.871202.82326.16360.21394.12279.891360.38353.21667.69904.02974.441192.561219.33349.16381.81420.81300.891381.38374.33YOY0.2%35.2%8.4%22.2%2.3%10.2%18.1%25.4%-2.7%13.1%8.3%0.4%35.4%7.8%22.4%2.2%11.9%19.1%27.4%-1.0%13.3%7.2%明月镜片70.0082.09136.19157.54176.7947.1548.3653.5943.82192.9256.1463.4574.4392.63136.20152.1041.5882.72130.39166.20166.2049.42YOY0.2%17.3%65.9%15.7%12.2%11.7%3.4%11.6%10.2%9.1%19.1%-3.7%17.3%24.4%47.0%11.7%19.5%9.6%11.0%9.3%9.3%18.9%博士眼镜69.1794.7875.16128.06103.6330.1825.8631.8060.77148.6139.9159.0285.1363.02116.4588.4827.4149.6579.00123.11123.1134.04YOY10.9%37.0%-20.7%70.4%-19.1%20.5%-5.5%2.2%201.7%43.4%32.2%9.2%44.2%-26.0%84.8%-24.0%19.5%8.2%7.8%39.1%39.1%24.2%营业收入规模及增速收入&合同负债规模及增速归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1明月镜片54.95%54.69%53.97%57.58%58.56%58.42%57.34%58.08%55.48%57.35%55.20%12.97%14.26%21.86%21.04%22.95%23.92%23.94%23.59%21.79%23.31%24.07%YOY4.07%-0.26%-0.71%3.61%0.98%0.35%-3.38%-1.02%-0.77%-1.21%-3.22%0.33%1.29%7.59%-0.82%1.91%1.94%-0.30%-0.64%0.52%0.36%0.15%博士眼镜67.59%64.93%61.84%63.07%61.71%58.08%51.55%52.20%86.86%60.57%58.04%10.54%10.68%7.81%10.89%8.62%9.25%7.18%8.07%21.71%10.92%11.30%YOY-3.58%-2.66%-3.09%1.23%-1.36%-0.88%-5.70%-7.23%15.09%-1.14%-0.04%1.02%0.14%-2.87%3.08%-2.28%0.79%-1.79%-1.83%14.71%2.31%2.05%明月镜片20.87%19.39%16.20%19.69%18.31%17.22%16.71%16.86%16.92%16.92%15.27%13.28%5.85%9.27%10.12%10.59%2.78%2.86%3.17%2.52%10.95%3.14%YOY2.07%-1.48%-3.19%3.49%-1.38%-1.47%-2.83%-1.71%0.56%-1.38%-1.95%-2.11%-7.43%3.42%0.85%0.47%0.11%-0.08%0.18%0.11%0.36%0.35%博士眼镜46.89%42.52%42.90%40.49%41.64%38.36%36.68%35.60%49.44%39.40%37.59%11.36%14.41%10.99%16.24%13.62%3.89%3.22%3.82%6.92%16.36%4.30%YOY-2.15%-4.37%0.37%-2.40%1.14%-1.33%-3.23%-4.81%2.62%-2.24%-0.77%0.37%3.05%-3.41%5.24%-2.61%0.77%-0.30%-0.26%4.32%2.74%0.41%毛利率归母净利率销售费用率ROE单位：百万元（人民币）2025H12025H2营业收入1093.161356.081561.321759.602060.771084.241101.742185.97YOY3.24%24.05%15.13%12.70%17.12%11.04%1.60%6.08%归母净利润128.46183.52248.57327.02428.28272.87284.86557.72YOY14.80%42.86%35.44%31.56%30.96%30.73%29.75%30.22%毛利率34.95%33.93%34.45%37.40%38.53%40.98%42.95%41.97%期间费用率18.49%18.38%15.56%16.58%16.20%13.88%17.38%15.65%销售费用率6.14%5.62%4.48%5.86%6.30%4.96%6.44%5.71%管理+研发费用率10.27%10.75%9.92%9.94%9.41%8.64%10.66%9.66%财务费用率2.08%2.01%1.17%0.78%0.49%0.28%0.29%0.28%归母净利率11.75%13.53%15.92%18.59%20.78%25.17%25.86%25.51%请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 27
8. 宠物：国内流量竞争激化，外销受关税等因素影响
国内宠物行业流量竞争持续激化。从天猫、抖音等主流电商平台近年“双11”大促排名看，宠食赛道竞争激烈，每年都可见新品牌冲上榜单前十名，头部品牌排名亦有一定波动。其中，我们看到上市公司乖宝宠物旗下品牌麦富迪在多平台始终保持第一/第二的领先地位，弗列加特品牌25 年天猫平台排名进一步提高，自主品牌矩阵优势明显；另一方面，鲜朗、许翠花、金故势头强劲，面对宠食增量市场，仍有新品牌依托差异化竞争力进入行业，如金故（GOIDEN TALES）是邓峰猫舍旗下生骨肉品牌，该公司以猫舍起家，基于自媒体流量与良好口碑，依托信任感快速发展。行业层面，从我们观察来看，需求端延续比较好的增势，但资本驱动下供给侧增加过多，我们预计行业在26 年开始会经历动态平衡，龙头企业坚持研发驱动，品类结构优化，渠道结构升级&多元化，宠物赛道的龙头品牌红利仍会稳步释放。图 42：天猫“双11”宠物品牌销售排名图 43：抖音“双11”宠物品牌销售排名板块整体26Q1 营收增长良好，但利润普遍承压，我们认为企业的国内品牌业务应平衡规模增长与盈利质量，而境外业务则要应对复杂的国际环境。收入&利润：国内品牌业务收入增长较快，境外业务表现稳定，但利润承压。（1）乖宝宠物：25 年实现营收67.7 亿元（同比+29.1%）、净利润6.73 亿元（同比+7.8%）；26Q1实现营收16.4亿元（同比+11.1%）、净利润1.24亿元（同比-39.5%）。25 年公司自有品牌业务营收同比+40.1%，其中麦富迪品牌同口径增长40%以上，高端品牌弗列加特增长80%以上，麦富迪高端子品牌霸弗增长60%以上；OEM/ODM业务收入则实现同比+6.0%，全年纬度增速呈现前高后低。我们预计公司26Q1 自有品牌营收增速或有所放缓，或因公司主动对核心品牌麦富迪实施品类结构优化、高端品牌渠道结构升级、海外品牌经营团队优化调整等动作的短期影响，但从长期发展出发仍是正向、主动、必要的调整；26Q1 外销业务或仍有所承压，主要因为在关税政策持续影响下，公司主动调整优化外销客户结构，我们看好后续逐步企稳修复。（2）中宠股份：25 年实现营收52.2 亿元（同比+16.9%）、净利润3.65 亿元（同比-7.3%）；26Q1实现营收15.3亿元（同比+39.2%）、净利润0.73亿元（同比-19.8%）。25 年公司国内业务实现收入同比+32.4%，我们预计自主品牌表现靓丽，顽皮品牌以小金盾为支点持续突破，领先品牌快速增长，包括ZEAL 在内的品牌矩阵全面开花。此外，根据蝉妈妈数据，我们预计26Q1 公司自主品牌销售增长超50%，顽皮与领先均呈现靓丽增长；25 年公司在境外实现收入同比+9.8%，OEM 业务收入同比+9.9%，表现稳健，我们预计自主品牌出海表现突出，国际影响力稳步提升。排名25年变化麦富迪麦富迪鲜朗+1皇家鲜朗麦富迪-1蓝氏蓝氏弗列加特+1网易严选弗列加特蓝氏-1诚实一口诚实一口皇家+1鲜朗皇家诚实一口-1天然百利天然百利渴望+2渴望网易严选许翠花首次上榜伯纳天纯渴望网易严选-1卫仕爱肯拿爱肯拿持平排名变化麦富迪麦富迪持平弗列加特金故首次上榜诚实一口卫仕+2喵梵思弗列加特-2卫仕蓝氏+2鲜朗喵梵思-2蓝氏诚实一口-4宽福宽福持平网易严选鲜朗-3伯纳天纯网易严选-1请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 28（3）源飞宠物：25 年实现营收17.3 亿元（同比+32.3%）、净利润1.16 亿元（同比-29.5%）；26Q1 实现营收4.5 亿元（同比+34.4%）、净利润0.23 亿元（同比-10.5%）。25 年公司实现境外收入同比+22.7%，近年来不断完善海外生产线布局，加快产线扩张，公司预计两年内完成产能升级，我们看好公司26Q1 海外业务在供应链布局的支撑下保持良好势头，但其中盈利能力表现较好的用品类业务表现弱于零食类业务；25 年公司实现境内收入同比+90.8%，以匹卡噗和库飞康飞作为自主品牌核心，我们预计26Q1 公司境内业务表现良好，26 年自主品牌发展或将重点从规模转向经营质量提升。（4）依依股份：25 年实现营收16.8 亿元（同比-6.7%）、净利润1.83 亿元（同比-14.9%）；26Q1 实现营收4.0 亿元（同比-17.0%）、净利润0.28 亿元（同比-48.8%）。我们认为公司营收有所承压或主要系中美关系持续复杂多变以及行业内竞争加剧等多重影响，且和客户发货节奏相关，我们预计Q2 公司收入有望显著改善。公司持续通过境外产能布局、非美市场拓展及研发创新积极应对，25 年核心产品宠物垫最新产能年产达48.7 亿片，宠物尿裤年产达2 亿片，规模优势突出；此外公司计划加快国内品牌培育与产业链拓展步伐，依托产业基金平台，聚焦宠物关爱领域挖掘优质标的。图 44：宠物行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%）盈利能力：头部企业毛利率表现有所分化，但净利率普遍承压。毛利率方面，业内头部企业25 年普遍实现同比提升，主要系自主品牌业务占比提高，源飞有所下降主要系低毛利零售业务占比提高，但26Q1 仅有源飞宠物实现同比明显提升，主要系规模效应及自主品牌占比提高。期间费用方面，26Q1 业内企业财务费用率普遍有明显提高，我们认为主要系汇率波动导致企业汇兑损失增加所致，此外，25 年&26Q1 多数企业销售费用率呈连续同比提升态势，我们认为主要系自主品牌营销投入增加所致。我国宠物食品用品市场空间广阔，品牌业务具备长坡厚雪的成长机会，但从现阶段来看，国内市场竞争烈度较高，对新进品牌的门槛尚未完全形成，流量竞争是市场主旋律，头部品牌想要完全确立市占率领先地位，未来一段时间内或仍需要保持一定力度的营销投入，而与之对应的净利润表现也会出现一定程度波动。图 45：宠物行业主要公司盈利能力（%）25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1乖宝宠物2013.042575.163397.544326.965244.961479.581741.101516.772031.506768.961643.522020.882601.203442.134384.165354.071537.051795.551576.372100.026837.481721.86YOY43.5%27.9%31.9%27.4%21.2%34.8%31.0%21.8%29.1%29.1%11.1%42.5%28.7%32.3%27.4%22.1%35.5%30.6%23.5%24.8%27.7%12.0%中宠股份2232.752881.553247.993747.204464.751101.111331.071427.721361.565221.471533.082243.922897.373255.613757.544478.031115.331353.311467.831410.115270.011589.81YOY30.1%29.1%12.7%15.4%19.1%25.4%23.4%15.9%6.7%16.9%39.2%30.2%29.1%12.4%15.4%19.2%25.4%24.3%17.9%9.4%17.7%42.5%佩蒂股份1339.851270.891731.801411.281659.04329.03398.67361.35359.841448.88350.941342.291271.411732.091414.441665.92330.21399.03361.88362.641451.68351.15YOY32.9%-5.1%36.3%-18.5%17.6%-14.4%-13.6%-24.3%7.0%-12.7%6.7%32.8%-5.3%36.2%-18.3%17.8%-14.3%-14.5%-24.9%5.7%-12.9%6.3%源飞宠物608.281068.78953.70991.261310.01334.83457.09489.38452.441733.74449.86609.831072.68955.69994.491312.03337.80464.18493.61454.121735.41451.98YOY18.2%75.7%-10.8%3.9%32.2%36.3%53.1%26.6%19.3%32.3%34.4%18.4%75.9%-10.9%4.1%31.9%36.8%54.7%26.6%19.1%32.3%33.8%依依股份1241.011310.021516.341337.361797.59485.47402.91417.72371.311677.40403.021243.541316.341519.431339.591800.88487.74405.70420.70375.421681.51405.95YOY20.8%5.6%15.7%-11.8%34.4%26.6%-6.1%-17.0%-23.0%-6.7%-17.0%20.8%5.9%15.4%-11.8%34.4%26.5%-6.1%-17.1%-22.6%-6.6%-16.8%乖宝宠物111.48140.27266.88428.84624.72204.16173.86134.99160.13673.14123.51104.94122.91261.06422.29600.00198.88168.54125.29172.10664.81124.36YOY2579.8%25.8%90.3%60.7%45.7%37.7%8.5%-16.6%3.8%7.8%-39.5%30746.6%17.1%112.4%61.8%42.1%44.2%10.4%-17.7%9.5%10.8%-37.5%中宠股份134.88115.62105.93233.16393.8091.16111.89130.2631.82365.1273.11125.34113.6190.99224.94386.3288.26110.62124.2229.50352.6066.20YOY70.7%-14.3%-8.4%120.1%68.9%62.1%29.8%-6.6%-71.6%-7.3%-19.8%85.5%-9.4%-19.9%147.2%71.7%63.7%32.3%18.9%-79.6%-8.7%-25.0%佩蒂股份114.8360.02127.12-11.09182.2122.2356.8734.482.08115.678.07108.0556.00134.70-6.85181.0120.9156.3834.970.81113.077.96YOY129.6%-47.7%111.8%-108.7%1742.8%-46.7%1.2%-39.3%-92.4%-36.5%-63.7%157.7%-48.2%140.5%-105.1%2742.2%-47.5%1.1%-37.8%-97.2%-37.5%-61.9%源飞宠物83.20136.83158.54126.14164.2825.3748.8056.05-14.34115.8722.7064.88126.90148.13123.87157.5824.8647.9455.48-11.27117.0122.69YOY51.5%64.5%15.9%-20.4%30.2%-30.6%30.6%22.3%-132.2%-29.5%-10.5%8.8%95.6%16.7%-16.4%27.2%-25.6%29.8%21.1%-127.2%-25.7%-8.8%依依股份194.46114.09150.55103.26215.1254.0948.1154.5026.32183.0227.69183.30106.18114.30109.33191.4350.1739.6346.7723.75160.3322.41YOY82.2%-41.3%32.0%-31.4%108.3%28.0%-9.1%-2.2%-59.0%-14.9%-48.8%76.8%-42.1%7.6%-4.3%75.1%41.0%-15.2%-12.1%-57.5%-16.2%-55.3%营业收入规模及增速收入&合同负债规模及增速归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1乖宝宠物29.3%28.8%32.6%36.8%42.3%41.6%43.8%42.9%41.7%42.5%41.6%16.2%15.0%16.5%20.2%22.2%23.7%19.9%19.6%17.4%19.9%19.5%YOY0.5%-0.6%3.8%4.3%5.4%0.4%1.0%1.1%-1.2%0.2%0.1%4.9%-1.3%1.6%3.6%2.0%-0.1%-2.5%-3.5%-2.6%-2.2%-4.3%中宠股份24.7%20.0%19.8%26.3%28.2%31.9%31.0%29.1%26.7%29.5%26.8%16.4%11.6%10.5%16.0%17.1%20.5%18.1%17.6%9.0%16.1%14.2%YOY0.9%-4.6%-0.3%6.5%1.9%4.0%2.9%2.2%-3.0%1.4%-5.1%2.6%-4.8%-1.1%5.5%1.1%3.0%1.8%0.0%-8.0%-1.0%-6.3%佩蒂股份25.5%22.9%22.3%19.3%29.4%28.6%34.8%32.2%31.2%31.9%27.6%21.2%18.6%17.3%12.1%22.3%20.2%27.8%24.0%22.7%23.9%19.7%YOY0.5%-2.6%-0.6%-3.0%10.1%4.3%6.7%1.3%-3.8%2.4%-1.0%3.1%-2.6%-1.3%-5.2%10.3%0.4%6.9%-1.7%0.1%1.5%-0.5%源飞宠物26.2%22.8%24.1%22.1%22.9%17.8%24.2%25.4%18.7%21.9%22.6%23.8%21.3%22.5%19.7%19.8%13.8%19.8%20.0%8.5%15.8%15.8%YOY-1.3%-3.4%1.3%-2.0%0.7%-4.7%1.8%2.7%-4.9%-1.0%4.8%1.9%-2.5%1.2%-2.8%0.2%-5.9%0.8%-0.1%-11.8%-4.1%2.0%依依股份26.0%16.7%13.7%17.0%19.6%18.8%19.1%22.6%19.3%19.9%16.8%25.0%15.3%12.4%15.0%17.9%16.9%17.3%20.1%15.9%17.6%13.5%YOY4.1%-9.3%-3.0%3.3%2.6%0.6%-0.4%1.9%-0.5%0.3%-2.0%7.9%-9.8%-2.9%2.6%2.9%0.5%-0.4%0.8%-1.7%-0.3%-3.4%乖宝宠物5.5%5.4%7.9%9.9%11.9%13.8%10.0%8.9%7.9%9.9%7.5%8.3%9.5%15.2%11.7%15.1%4.8%4.0%3.0%3.5%14.5%2.6%YOY5.2%-0.1%2.4%2.1%2.0%0.3%-2.1%-4.1%-1.9%-2.0%-6.3%7.9%1.3%5.7%-3.5%3.4%0.8%-0.2%-1.0%-0.2%-0.6%-2.2%中宠股份6.0%4.0%3.3%6.2%8.8%8.3%8.4%9.1%2.3%7.0%4.8%7.8%6.4%5.1%10.4%16.2%3.7%4.1%4.5%1.1%12.4%2.3%YOY1.4%-2.0%-0.8%3.0%2.6%1.9%0.4%-2.2%-6.4%-1.8%-3.5%-1.6%-1.5%-1.2%5.3%5.8%1.1%0.3%-1.4%-3.5%-3.8%-1.3%佩蒂股份8.6%4.7%7.3%-0.8%11.0%6.8%14.3%9.5%0.6%8.0%2.3%7.1%3.4%6.7%-0.6%9.3%1.1%2.9%1.7%0.1%6.1%0.4%YOY3.6%-3.8%2.6%-8.1%11.8%-4.1%2.1%-2.4%-7.6%-3.0%-4.5%2.2%-3.7%3.3%-7.3%9.9%-1.1%-0.1%-1.2%-1.3%-3.3%-0.7%源飞宠物13.7%12.8%16.6%12.7%12.5%7.6%10.7%11.5%-3.2%6.7%5.0%19.7%24.7%13.8%10.3%12.4%1.9%3.6%4.0%-1.0%8.2%1.6%YOY3.0%-0.9%3.8%-3.9%-0.2%-7.3%-1.8%-0.4%-14.9%-5.9%-2.5%0.3%5.0%-10.9%-3.5%2.1%-1.1%0.6%0.4%-4.4%-4.2%-0.3%依依股份15.7%8.7%9.9%7.7%12.0%11.1%11.9%13.0%7.1%10.9%6.9%27.3%6.6%8.3%5.8%11.7%2.9%2.6%2.9%1.4%9.7%1.5%YOY5.3%-7.0%1.2%-2.2%4.2%0.1%-0.4%2.0%-6.2%-1.1%-4.3%6.7%-20.7%1.7%-2.5%5.9%0.5%-0.4%-0.2%-2.1%-2.1%-1.4%毛利率毛销差归母净利率ROE请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 29图 46：宠物行业主要公司期间费率（%）
9. 必选消费：需求韧性突出，线下布局深度重新成为核心
9.1 个护：核心品牌仍处扩张区间，费用管控分化女性护理：25 年舆情影响逐步弱化，百亚股份25Q4/26Q1 收入同比分别-6.4%/+6.0%，26Q1 公司凭借地区扩张助力收入重返增长通道，其中非核心区域预计延续靓丽表现，此外，公司积极推进电商策略调整，强化经营质量管控，我们预计后续低基数下增长有望提速；盈利方面，受益于线上改革成效落地、外围地区规模优势显现，26Q1 归母净利率同比+0.5pct，我们预计后续有望持续改善。乐舒适受益于非洲渗透率提升，以及公司份额扩张、地区扩展，25 年收入同比+24.9%；同时公司产品矩阵&定价策略优化，价格协同向上，毛利率同比+0.6pct、经调净利润同比+24.4%。我们判断公司已在海外形成较深竞争壁垒，未来成长有望延续。口腔护理：25Q4/26Q1 登康口腔、倍加洁收入同比分别-3.9%/+15.1% 、+16.8%/+29.4%，归母净利润增速同比+4.5%/+20.0%、扭亏/+57.9%。登康受益于品牌势能提升以及产品加速迭代，26Q1 收入维持稳健增长，我们预计线下表现更为突出，线上公司调整平台结构、优化资源投入&费用管控（26Q1 销售费用率同比-2.8pct），盈利能力维持高位。倍加洁业绩表现靓丽，我们预计主要系代工区域扩张、自主品牌&益生菌等新业务高增，同时受益于业务结构改善，规模扩张、费用优化（26Q1 毛利率同比+2.8pct、销售费用率同比-0.13pct），整体利润增速更优。婴童护理：25Q4/26Q1 润本股份收入同比+9.5%/+11.3%，归母净利润同比+23.4%/+19.1%，公司驱蚊类产品表现靓丽，非平台经销持续拓展，婴童类产品保持韧性，收入稳健增长；此外，公司严格把控原材料采购，成本控制优异，盈利能力提升（26Q1 毛利率同比+1.4pct、销售费用率同比+0.7pct）。我们判断公司线上品牌优势持续赋能线下，且凭借自身产品迭代加速，线下渠道有望持续贡献增量。图 47：个护公司收入、利润梳理（百万元）25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1乖宝宠物22.3%22.2%22.9%23.8%26.9%23.9%30.9%31.1%31.7%29.6%30.9%13.1%13.8%16.0%16.7%20.1%17.8%23.9%23.3%24.3%22.6%22.1%YOY-5.6%-0.1%0.8%0.9%3.1%0.1%3.5%5.1%2.3%2.7%7.0%-4.4%0.7%2.2%0.6%3.4%0.5%3.5%4.6%1.4%2.5%4.3%中宠股份15.4%14.3%14.7%16.2%17.8%20.0%20.6%18.8%26.2%21.4%20.5%8.3%8.4%9.3%10.3%11.1%11.4%12.9%11.5%17.7%13.5%12.6%YOY-0.2%-1.1%0.4%1.5%1.6%2.2%3.9%2.8%5.7%3.6%0.5%-1.7%0.2%0.9%1.0%0.8%1.0%1.1%2.3%5.1%2.4%1.2%佩蒂股份15.2%16.8%11.7%17.4%15.5%19.3%16.2%19.8%29.2%21.0%22.7%4.3%4.3%5.0%7.2%7.1%8.5%7.0%8.2%8.5%8.0%7.9%YOY-4.3%1.7%-5.1%5.7%-2.0%7.7%3.3%3.2%7.5%5.6%3.4%-2.6%0.0%0.7%2.2%-0.2%3.8%-0.2%3.0%-3.9%0.9%-0.5%源飞宠物13.0%7.5%4.2%4.7%6.1%8.5%8.2%10.3%14.3%10.4%12.3%2.4%1.5%1.6%2.5%3.1%4.0%4.4%5.4%10.2%6.1%6.8%YOY0.1%-5.5%-3.3%0.5%1.4%4.1%2.6%3.7%7.0%4.3%3.9%-3.2%-0.9%0.2%0.9%0.6%1.2%1.0%2.7%6.8%3.1%2.8%依依股份5.8%5.5%3.3%5.5%4.6%4.5%5.4%6.9%10.1%6.6%8.9%1.0%1.5%1.3%2.0%1.8%1.9%1.8%2.4%3.3%2.3%3.3%YOY-2.1%-0.3%-2.2%2.2%-0.9%-0.4%0.4%0.9%7.4%1.9%4.4%-3.7%0.5%-0.2%0.7%-0.3%0.1%0.0%1.1%1.1%0.6%1.3%乖宝宠物5.6%5.0%5.2%5.8%5.8%5.1%5.7%6.3%6.2%5.8%6.6%1.4%1.1%-0.3%-0.3%-0.7%-0.5%-0.3%0.1%0.1%-0.1%1.1%YOY-1.7%-0.6%0.2%0.6%0.1%-0.4%-0.4%0.6%0.2%0.0%1.6%0.8%-0.3%-1.4%0.0%-0.4%0.1%0.5%0.2%1.2%0.5%1.6%中宠股份4.0%3.6%3.6%3.8%4.7%6.1%6.0%4.5%5.6%5.5%4.7%1.6%0.8%0.5%0.8%0.4%0.4%-0.1%0.9%0.6%0.4%1.1%YOY0.4%-0.4%0.0%0.2%0.9%1.0%2.7%0.3%-0.5%0.8%-1.5%0.8%-0.8%-0.4%0.3%-0.4%-0.3%-0.2%0.1%0.5%0.0%0.7%佩蒂股份6.6%8.6%7.0%7.8%7.0%9.3%7.9%7.1%13.6%9.4%8.7%2.3%2.2%-1.9%0.3%-0.4%-0.3%-0.7%1.8%4.2%1.2%3.8%YOY-3.9%2.0%-1.6%0.9%-0.8%3.0%2.4%0.9%2.6%2.4%-0.6%2.8%-0.2%-4.1%2.2%-0.7%0.3%1.2%-1.8%8.3%1.7%4.0%源飞宠物4.1%2.8%3.6%3.7%3.3%3.3%2.6%3.3%4.3%3.4%3.3%3.5%0.9%-3.2%-3.4%-2.0%-0.9%-0.7%-0.5%0.1%-0.5%0.8%YOY-0.6%-1.3%0.8%0.1%-0.5%-0.2%-0.7%0.3%0.9%0.1%0.0%4.1%-2.7%-4.0%-0.3%1.5%2.7%2.1%-0.3%2.1%1.5%1.7%依依股份2.2%2.8%2.7%3.0%2.8%2.4%3.2%3.2%3.9%3.1%2.6%1.9%0.5%-2.1%-1.2%-1.1%-0.8%-0.7%-0.1%1.0%-0.2%1.8%YOY-0.2%0.6%-0.1%0.2%-0.1%-0.1%0.4%0.6%0.5%0.3%0.2%1.9%-1.4%-2.5%0.8%0.1%0.0%0.4%-1.1%4.6%0.9%2.6%期间费用率销售费用率管理费用率财务费用率25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1中顺洁柔7823.539149.878569.699800.958150.582067.752261.862148.612301.638779.852197.857960.869314.238666.289845.138286.322120.502309.262237.912425.918904.132283.94YOY17.9%17.0%-6.3%14.4%-16.8%12.1%3.9%11.1%4.8%7.7%6.3%17.5%17.0%-7.0%13.6%-15.8%12.2%3.0%12.3%4.1%7.5%7.7%百亚股份1250.751463.061612.142144.153254.24995.44768.46858.79869.773492.461055.271314.331512.951670.202197.093353.211061.87832.71925.57945.723568.411132.75YOY8.8%17.0%10.2%33.0%51.8%30.1%0.2%8.3%-6.4%7.3%6.0%9.5%15.1%10.4%31.5%52.6%25.7%1.5%9.0%-8.0%6.4%6.7%豪悦护理2590.952462.052802.282756.912929.29911.07848.89958.491037.473755.92974.682657.892530.452841.642836.802961.15957.61891.641004.921128.273846.721061.59YOY32.6%-5.0%13.8%-1.6%6.3%42.4%26.1%31.6%16.8%28.2%7.0%33.5%-4.8%12.3%-0.2%4.4%42.6%22.2%33.5%22.6%29.9%10.9%可靠股份1635.131186.401186.291081.481078.54280.18268.78280.53320.741150.23291.301640.491192.391193.341087.501084.44284.08274.24284.83325.351154.84297.71YOY39.3%-27.4%0.0%-8.8%-0.3%-1.0%13.0%4.6%10.8%6.6%4.0%39.3%-27.3%0.1%-8.9%-0.3%-0.7%13.7%5.1%10.2%6.5%4.8%登康口腔1029.591142.521313.331375.781560.07430.35411.48386.47487.541715.83495.311077.751165.631360.671432.271610.07512.90485.21458.20511.551739.83528.25YOY9.1%11.0%14.9%4.8%13.4%19.4%20.1%10.5%-3.9%10.0%15.1%-0.4%8.2%16.7%5.3%12.4%11.7%6.2%-6.8%-8.2%8.1%3.0%倍加洁827.731038.591049.931066.541298.85323.83393.31402.01416.151535.29418.98838.351060.411060.521078.231309.90330.96403.78416.38432.281551.42436.98YOY2.7%25.5%1.1%1.6%21.8%13.3%17.7%24.7%16.8%18.2%29.4%2.9%26.5%0.0%1.7%21.5%8.7%17.4%24.6%17.6%18.4%32.0%润本股份442.83582.15856.091032.951318.18240.03655.08342.41307.271544.79267.09446.27586.35860.591038.921331.54246.09659.39345.37318.651556.17273.60YOY58.9%31.5%47.1%20.7%27.6%44.0%13.5%16.7%9.5%17.2%11.3%58.1%31.4%46.8%20.7%28.2%45.3%13.3%16.4%8.4%16.9%11.2%百亚股份182.51227.92187.29238.25287.67130.6157.4356.53-36.59207.98143.70180.21210.53179.22215.66253.98129.13182.47237.81195.31195.31138.30YOY42.4%24.9%-17.8%27.2%20.7%27.3%-25.5%-3.9%-174.4%-27.7%10.0%46.5%16.8%-14.9%20.3%17.8%32.4%6.1%5.2%-23.1%-23.1%7.1%豪悦护理601.96362.67422.88438.60387.5190.6157.8754.8828.62231.9883.51576.21352.96386.01423.28376.2990.10145.79194.18222.64222.6483.21YOY90.9%-39.8%16.6%3.7%-11.6%5.7%-46.5%-45.4%-69.2%-40.1%-7.8%87.2%-38.7%9.4%9.7%-11.1%7.6%-23.9%-32.5%-40.8%-40.8%-7.6%可靠股份214.0139.75-43.1320.1831.1718.599.69-0.298.1336.121.88201.5433.42-49.7718.0924.0717.4824.8523.2228.1828.180.21YOY144.7%-81.4%-208.5%146.8%54.4%1.4%98.4%74.3%-10.6%15.9%-89.9%96.2%-83.4%-248.9%136.3%33.1%-3.5%15.4%37.8%17.1%17.1%-98.8%登康口腔95.24118.86134.61141.30161.1843.1542.0050.7345.20181.0851.7973.7196.89104.71106.34135.1335.8269.38110.70154.73154.7347.30YOY50.8%24.8%13.3%5.0%14.1%15.6%19.7%11.4%4.5%12.3%20.0%91.4%31.5%8.1%1.6%27.1%27.3%25.7%19.8%14.5%14.5%32.1%倍加洁76.8874.7897.3192.51-77.3212.4131.1133.5537.73114.7919.6073.8132.1164.8435.97-95.9111.4639.8771.97111.06111.0619.11YOY-29.7%-2.7%30.1%-4.9%-183.6%-34.5%119.1%289.7%131.7%248.5%57.9%-26.4%-56.5%101.9%-44.5%-366.6%-36.4%26.7%86.4%215.8%215.8%66.7%润本股份94.71120.65160.04226.03300.1644.20143.3378.5248.45314.5052.6491.82116.68154.37218.65289.2338.62176.96251.23295.44295.4448.32YOY165.5%27.4%32.7%41.2%32.8%24.6%-0.8%-2.9%23.4%4.8%19.1%165.2%27.1%32.3%41.6%32.3%22.8%0.9%-1.8%2.1%2.1%25.1%营业收入规模及增速收入&合同负债规模及增速归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 30图 48：乐舒适财务数据梳理图 49：部分个护公司盈利能力及销售费用率梳理9.2 文具：龙头多元成长，集采竞争压力延续龙头经营韧性显现，集采竞争压力延续。25Q4/26Q1 晨光、齐心收入同比分别+8.7%/+5.4%、+41.1%/-5.6%，归母净利润同比分别-3.2%/+5.9%、减亏/-12.6%。尽管终端需求延续疲弱、龙头公司仍展现较强经营韧性。其中，晨光股份25Q4/26Q1传统渠道同比分别-4.4%/-2.9%、科力普同比分别+14.6%/+10.3%、生活馆分别同比+8.1%/+14.5%。公司围绕“功能价值”与“情绪价值”双重提升，并加强线上产品线布局（25 年线上+5.2%、25Q4 已扭亏）&出海（25 年外销+5.9%）。集采方面，科力普深耕存量、拓展增量，并推进自营和自有产品占比提升，未来分拆上市后成长有望加速；零售大店围绕门店升级、主题快闪营销、IP 与品类拓展、会员深度营运等维度协同发力，我们预计未来仍将有序扩张，且盈利能力亦有望稳步改善。此外，科力普/齐心毛利率均在低位波动，我们预计办公集采竞争压力短期内仍将延续。图 50：文具部分公司财务信息梳理（百万元）单位：百万美元2022A2023A2024A
2025 M1-4
2025 M5-12
2025A收入319.90411.37454.39161.31406.08567.39YOY28.59%10.46%15.53%29.01%24.87%年度利润18.3964.6895.1131.1090.06121.16YOY251.71%47.05%12.45%33.52%27.39%经调整后利润18.3964.6898.3632.5189.80122.31YOY251.71%52.06%13.30%28.91%24.36%毛利率22.99%34.94%35.25%33.61%36.77%35.87%期间费用率14.06%12.37%9.93%11.00%10.82%10.87%销售费用率2.81%3.29%3.50%3.52%3.52%3.52%管理费用率9.02%8.66%6.21%7.05%6.84%6.90%研发费用率0.05%0.08%0.12%0.16%0.23%0.21%财务费用率2.18%0.34%0.10%0.27%0.24%0.25%经调整后净利率5.75%15.72%21.65%20.15%22.11%21.56%25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1中顺洁柔41.32%35.92%31.96%33.15%30.70%30.85%34.25%36.71%34.05%34.00%34.37%11.58%6.35%4.08%3.40%0.95%3.23%3.69%3.72%3.84%3.63%4.67%YOY1.69%-5.40%-3.96%1.19%-2.45%-3.67%2.85%9.46%4.20%3.29%3.52%2.48%-5.23%-2.27%-0.69%-2.45%-1.94%4.05%5.48%2.77%2.68%1.44%百亚股份42.66%44.71%45.11%50.32%53.19%53.32%53.14%55.55%55.22%54.30%58.52%14.59%15.58%11.62%11.11%8.84%13.12%7.47%6.58%-4.21%5.95%13.62%YOY-3.25%2.05%0.40%5.21%2.87%-1.04%-1.30%-0.25%6.27%1.12%5.19%3.44%0.99%-3.96%-0.51%-2.27%-0.29%-2.58%-0.84%-9.50%-2.88%0.50%豪悦护理36.93%26.32%23.15%26.94%27.91%34.67%31.36%29.20%30.98%31.51%33.25%23.23%14.73%15.09%15.91%13.23%9.95%6.82%5.73%2.76%6.18%8.57%YOY6.57%-10.61%-3.17%3.79%0.97%6.96%1.05%2.19%4.02%3.60%-1.42%7.09%-8.50%0.36%0.82%-2.68%-3.46%-9.26%-8.07%-7.72%-7.05%-1.38%可靠股份27.83%18.64%13.10%17.65%20.79%24.30%23.62%22.55%25.30%23.99%23.85%13.09%3.35%-3.64%1.87%2.89%6.63%3.60%-0.10%2.54%3.14%0.65%YOY0.81%-9.19%-5.54%4.55%3.13%3.91%-0.15%1.84%6.51%3.21%-0.44%5.64%-9.74%-6.99%5.50%1.02%0.16%1.55%0.32%-0.61%0.25%-5.99%登康口腔41.71%42.10%40.50%44.11%49.37%55.51%49.57%45.90%56.58%52.23%52.59%9.25%10.40%10.25%10.27%10.33%10.03%10.21%13.13%9.27%10.55%10.46%YOY-0.55%0.39%-1.60%3.60%5.26%7.08%4.22%-8.02%6.96%2.85%-2.92%2.56%1.15%-0.15%0.02%0.06%-0.32%-0.04%0.11%0.74%0.22%0.43%倍加洁22.96%20.56%23.97%23.19%23.91%25.70%27.21%25.83%24.34%25.75%28.50%9.29%7.20%9.27%8.67%-5.95%3.83%7.91%8.34%9.07%7.48%4.68%YOY-2.40%-2.41%3.41%-0.78%0.73%0.31%2.03%2.15%2.58%1.84%2.80%-4.28%-2.09%2.07%-0.59%-14.63%-2.79%3.66%5.67%42.47%13.43%0.85%润本股份52.53%53.05%54.19%56.35%58.17%57.67%58.13%58.96%58.45%58.31%59.10%21.39%20.72%18.69%21.88%22.77%18.41%21.88%22.93%15.77%20.36%19.71%YOY-1.56%0.52%1.15%2.15%1.83%1.98%-1.35%1.39%0.88%0.14%1.42%8.59%-0.66%-2.03%3.19%0.89%-2.87%-3.16%-4.62%1.77%-2.41%1.29%中顺洁柔19.74%21.71%20.41%22.51%21.60%20.39%22.05%23.71%19.69%21.45%21.37%17.97%11.85%6.76%6.08%1.43%1.23%1.52%1.46%1.62%5.83%1.86%YOY-0.90%1.97%-1.30%2.10%-0.91%-0.08%-0.38%2.44%-2.31%-0.15%0.97%3.16%-6.12%-5.09%-0.68%-4.65%-0.50%1.66%2.08%1.18%4.41%0.64%百亚股份17.74%19.06%24.50%31.20%37.67%33.99%39.52%42.43%51.94%41.75%37.32%16.23%18.79%14.63%17.18%19.84%8.62%3.84%3.92%-2.52%14.52%9.56%YOY-9.15%1.32%5.44%6.70%6.47%-0.43%3.38%0.92%13.61%4.08%3.33%-2.06%2.56%-4.15%2.54%2.67%1.49%-1.61%-0.37%-5.97%-5.32%0.93%豪悦护理4.91%3.66%3.47%4.97%7.29%14.84%16.93%16.92%20.20%17.32%16.35%21.60%12.12%14.03%13.63%11.74%2.71%1.72%1.63%0.84%6.79%2.42%YOY-0.31%-1.25%-0.19%1.50%2.32%7.37%10.01%10.71%11.86%10.03%1.51%-27.78%-9.48%1.92%-0.40%-1.89%0.07%-1.57%-1.47%-2.02%-4.95%-0.29%可靠股份4.00%7.64%8.02%9.20%11.31%8.85%13.65%13.41%12.77%12.18%11.57%34.89%2.81%-3.19%1.47%2.34%1.38%0.72%-0.02%0.61%2.69%0.14%YOY-6.08%3.64%0.38%1.17%2.12%0.69%-1.54%0.22%3.30%0.86%2.71%12.97%-32.08%-6.00%4.66%0.87%0.04%0.36%0.06%-0.07%0.36%-1.24%登康口腔25.80%24.45%24.01%28.08%31.96%38.56%34.35%25.51%38.34%34.55%35.77%18.76%23.36%24.82%10.05%11.08%2.92%2.89%3.53%3.05%12.03%3.36%YOY-3.44%-1.34%-0.45%4.07%3.88%6.82%5.85%-8.00%4.95%2.59%-2.79%4.09%4.60%1.46%-14.77%1.03%0.30%0.39%0.25%0.03%0.95%0.44%倍加洁3.98%8.82%9.98%6.99%6.97%8.28%7.90%9.80%6.91%8.21%8.15%7.49%6.93%8.35%7.41%-7.77%1.24%3.04%3.21%3.51%10.46%1.77%YOY-1.81%4.83%1.16%-2.99%-0.02%0.21%1.60%2.34%0.64%1.24%-0.13%-3.76%-0.56%1.42%-0.95%-15.18%-0.26%1.85%2.43%14.79%18.23%0.53%润本股份21.48%23.09%27.09%26.02%28.80%31.45%29.81%29.09%37.63%31.46%32.14%37.86%21.48%22.15%11.76%14.43%2.10%6.67%3.61%2.21%14.16%2.34%YOY-5.90%1.61%4.00%-1.07%2.78%1.30%1.49%5.54%3.18%2.66%0.69%11.89%-16.38%0.67%-10.38%2.66%0.27%-0.58%-0.36%0.30%-0.27%0.24%毛利率归母净利率销售费用率ROE25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1晨光股份13137.7517607.4019996.3223351.3024228.255244.825563.966519.087736.0525063.915530.3613251.8517753.9920078.0623457.3424371.605407.905741.056706.057878.2325206.095683.91YOY17.9%34.0%13.6%16.8%3.8%-4.4%0.0%7.5%8.7%3.4%5.4%16.8%34.0%13.1%16.8%3.9%-3.6%1.0%8.4%8.6%3.4%5.1%齐心集团8009.338236.348629.1411098.8511396.892212.152561.052956.104235.6411964.952089.258065.268325.658699.9111153.8611443.482466.992587.932998.524262.7411992.052144.38YOY33.9%2.8%4.8%28.6%2.7%1.0%-8.7%-13.0%41.1%5.0%-5.6%32.6%3.2%4.5%28.2%2.6%2.0%-13.3%-16.3%39.9%4.8%-13.1%晨光股份1255.431517.871282.461526.801395.84318.20238.98391.12362.151310.45337.071102.711349.541155.561398.221233.94281.29461.56802.201123.921123.92255.66YOY18.4%20.9%-15.5%19.1%-8.6%-16.2%-5.6%0.6%-3.2%-6.1%5.9%9.7%22.4%-14.4%21.0%-11.7%-14.2%-18.6%-13.6%-8.9%-8.9%-9.1%齐心集团200.84-562.26126.6976.9162.8248.8738.6352.91-59.7580.6642.72185.16-564.9091.2775.3959.2444.0179.75134.5275.7675.7639.69YOY-12.8%-380.0%122.5%-39.3%-18.3%-1.1%-14.8%-17.1%37.6%28.4%-12.6%-14.4%-405.1%116.2%-17.4%-21.4%-1.0%-13.3%-14.4%27.9%27.9%-9.8%营业收入规模及增速收入&合同负债规模及增速归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1晨光股份25.36%23.21%19.36%18.86%18.90%20.65%18.31%19.89%15.54%18.36%20.27%9.56%8.62%6.41%6.54%5.76%6.07%4.30%6.00%4.68%5.23%6.09%YOY-0.78%-2.15%-3.85%-0.50%0.04%0.49%-0.34%-0.56%-1.24%-0.54%-0.38%0.04%-0.94%-2.21%0.12%-0.78%-0.86%-0.25%-0.41%-0.58%-0.53%0.03%齐心集团14.66%11.21%10.07%8.38%8.59%9.74%8.54%8.97%7.09%8.35%9.88%2.51%-6.83%1.47%0.69%0.55%2.21%1.51%1.79%-1.41%0.67%2.04%YOY-1.00%-3.45%-1.14%-1.69%0.21%-0.44%-0.58%1.52%-1.13%-0.24%0.14%-1.34%-9.33%8.29%-0.78%-0.14%-0.05%-0.11%-0.09%1.78%0.12%-0.16%晨光股份8.40%7.94%6.79%6.64%7.17%8.15%8.21%8.09%5.80%7.42%8.75%24.17%24.50%18.72%19.49%15.67%3.52%2.70%4.48%3.98%14.11%3.56%YOY-0.40%-0.46%-1.15%-0.15%0.53%0.75%0.93%0.19%-0.50%0.25%0.60%-1.06%0.33%-5.78%0.77%-3.83%-1.22%-0.39%-0.14%-0.30%-1.56%0.05%齐心集团5.24%5.51%5.41%4.89%4.99%6.20%4.57%4.53%5.04%5.03%5.25%5.79%-19.58%4.13%2.48%2.04%1.58%1.24%1.70%-1.92%2.61%1.38%YOY-1.41%0.27%-0.10%-0.52%0.10%0.67%0.31%0.36%-1.17%0.04%-0.95%-1.07%-25.37%23.71%-1.66%-0.43%-0.01%-0.22%-0.34%1.15%0.57%-0.20%毛利率归母净利率销售费用率ROE请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 31图 51：晨光股份分渠道梳理
10. 电动两轮车：新国标短期影响，把握结构性增长机会
电动两轮车行业25 年景气度在国补等刺激下显著提升。据营商电动车数据，25 年我国电动两轮车行业景气度大幅提升，全年销量6370 万辆（同比+29.5%），创历史新高，我们认为原因一是“以旧换新”国补政策有效刺激消费，25 年全年以旧换新超1250 万辆，增量突出，二是24 年行业整体景气度低迷，我们预计终端经销商库存水位普遍较低，在25 年进行补库匹配动销表现，与之对应，头部品牌在25 年均实现电动两轮车业务的靓丽增长。此外，产品升级成为行业主旋律，全年中高端车型占比突破四成，智能化成为主流；三轮车以及即时配送场景助推市场扩容。新国标实际执行正趋于良性，逐步平衡各方需求，利好消费回暖；电摩起量带动产品结构优化，短期阵痛后全产业链盈利能力提升叠加销量回暖有望创造可观弹性；海外市场在政策支持、基建完善、成本优化下进入加速发展期带来可观增量。图 52：我国电动两轮车销量及增速（万辆，%）-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%销量YOY请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3226Q1 行业景气度受新国标切换、国补高基数等因素影响承压。据奥维云网数据，26Q1 我国电动两轮车市场内销同比-17.1%，我们认为一方面因为这是我国电动两轮车新国标全面切换后的首个完整季度，在售产品数量相对有限且与消费端实际需求有待进一步对齐，另一方面则是因为25 年同期“以旧换新”政策持续拉动形成高基数影响；3 月单月内销同比-8.9%，降幅较2 月已出现显著收窄，我们认为电动两轮车在我国属于偏刚需性短途出行工具，随着头部品牌结合终端需求加速迭代新国标产品，有望促进需求持续恢复。此外，根据中国摩托车商会不完全统计，26Q1 我国电动摩托车销量同比-5.7%，3 月销量同比+3.5%，我们预计电动摩托车产品有望在终端市场填补电动自行车产品的短期空白，保障销售基本盘。龙头企业份额提升，行业生态有望改善。消费者对电自产品价格敏感度高，早先长尾品牌依靠低价策略维持份额，但新国标下随着材料、检测成本提升，合规单车价格必然提高，长尾品牌竞争力大幅减弱。头部品牌具备显著硬软件优势、渠道优势、配套优势，对长尾形成全方位出清压力；产品结构优化提升门店盈利能力，吸引二网商翻牌，优化产业链生态。终端运营层面，在新势力启迪下，传统品牌革新思路打法，推动线上线下一体化。图 53：九号公司新国标电动自行车Fz3 30图 54：26Q1 电动两轮车市场品牌格局板块整体25 年经营业绩增长亮眼，26Q1 则有一定承压，我们预计26Q2 往后，电动自行车有望回暖，电动摩托车则保持良好势头，建议关注强者恒强的头部品牌。收入&利润：九号公司差异化定位优势突出，涛涛车业全球化布局领先。（1）九号公司：25 年实现营收212.8 亿元（同比+49.9%），26Q1 实现营收58.7亿元（同比+14.8%），25 年电动两轮车销售409.0 万辆（同比+57.4%），单车ASP约2899 元（同比+4.5%），作为核心业务支撑公司经营业绩高增，26Q1 电动两轮车销售122.8 万辆（同比+22.3%），依托年轻化、智能化品牌定位实现逆势增长，我们预计其中电动摩托车占主导地位。（2）涛涛车业：25 年实现营收39.4 亿元（同比+32.4%），26Q1 实现营收10.6 亿元（同比+65.7%），利润增速均快于营收增速。电动低速车已成为公司最主要增长引擎，其他品类如全地形车、越野车、电动自行车等在26Q1 也保持良好增长态势；此外公司北美产能布局顺利，3 条电动低速车产线已正常生产，未来将继续扩张。（3）雅迪控股：25 年实现营收370.1 亿元（同比+31.1%）、归母净利润29.1 亿元（同比+128.8%），增速突出。25 年公司电动自行车销量约1145.35 万台（同比+26.0%），电动踏板车销量约481.57 万台（同比+22.5%），单车ASP 均同比提升。新国标切换后，公司精准把握消费趋势发力电动踏板车，实现整体销量增长。0%5%10%15%20%25%30%雅迪爱玛台铃九号绿源26Q1市场份额请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 33（4）爱玛科技：25 年实现营收250.9 亿元（同比+16.1%），26Q1 实现营收50.8亿元（同比-18.5%），利润增速表现均弱于营收。我们认为公司26Q1 经营业绩表现在一定程度上反映出行业整体承压背景，静待后续动销恢复。图 55：电动两轮车行业主要公司收入及利润情况（百万元，%）盈利能力：国内市场为主的公司在26Q1 普遍面临盈利压力。25 年业内头部企业多数实现毛、净利率同比提升，我们认为一方面是销量增长推动规模效应凸显，另一方面则是产品结构优化见效；26Q1 除了以海外市场为主的涛涛车业保持良好盈利能力外，其余以国内市场为主的公司普遍面临毛利率与净利率压力，我们认为原因一是原材料价格上涨阶段性压制毛利率，二是电动两轮车销售承压导致规模效应减弱，三是如九号公司、涛涛车业受汇兑损失拖累。我们看到已有部分企业采取提价应对，且随着动销回暖，看好头部企业盈利能力迎来持续修复。图 56：电动两轮车行业主要公司盈利能力（%）图 57：电动两轮车行业主要公司期间费率（%）请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 34
11. 服装家纺：消费温和复苏，板块表现分化
11.1 服装家纺消费呈现弱复苏2025 年服装鞋帽针纺织品类社零同比+3.2%，2026Q1 进一步提速至+9.3%。2024 年，限额以上服装鞋帽针纺织品类零售额同比增长仅0.3%，2025 年全年累计增速回升至3.2%，虽然复苏幅度温和，但已明确走出低谷。从节奏上看，2025Q1累计增速3.4%，年中小幅回落，Q4 随着节假日消费与换季需求的释放，增速改善。2026 年复苏动能显著增强，Q1 限额以上服装鞋帽针纺织品类零售额累计同比增长9.3%，其中1-2 月增速达到10.4%，既受益于春节消费旺季的拉动，也与气温偏早转暖带动春装动销有关。服装作为必选与可选属性的交叉品类，在消费复苏周期中具有一定的弹性特征；从棉纺织行业景气指数看，2025 年一季度末为52.4，二三季度呈现回落和震荡，四季度10 月、11 月、12 月呈现连续的扩张，显示行业景气度有所上行，与社零数据走势相互印证。图58：服装鞋帽针纺织品类社零累计同比增速(2024-2026Q1)11.2 板块整体表现：收入增速平稳，利润分化明显收入&利润：我们选取12 家A 股服装家纺公司作为观察样本，分别为森马服饰、海澜之家、太平鸟、歌力思、报喜鸟、比音勒芬、地素时尚、罗莱生活、水星家纺、富安娜、九牧王、锦泓集团。25 年营收表现整体平稳，但内部结构差异显著。从营收增速看，服装家纺板块收入616 亿元，同比微增0.1%。分开看，全年实现正增长的有6 家，负增长的有6 家。水星家纺（同比+8.0%）、比音勒芬（同比+7.7%）、罗莱生活（同比+6.1%）位居增速前三，水星、罗莱推行大单品策略，充分享受睡眠经济红利，比音勒芬则凭借高端定位+门店扩张展现出增长韧性。富安娜（同比-14.2%）、太平鸟（同比-6.9%）、九牧王（同比-6.5%）则面临较大的收入下滑压力，富安娜渠道调整、太平鸟品牌转型阵痛、九牧王品类老化。25 年利润端略下滑，分化比收入端更为明显。从板块利润增速看，服装家纺板块利润54.42 亿元、同比下滑1.3%。分公司看：1）利润表现较好的包括罗莱生活、水星家纺、歌力思：2025 年，罗莱生活、水星家纺归母净利润分别同比增长20.1%、11.0%，是利润端表现较好的两家家纺龙头，充分验证了大单品策略的正确性；歌力思2025 年成功扭亏为盈，实现归母净利润1.65 亿元、改善幅度最大，主要系高端请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 35女装品牌在品牌上行期展现出明显的正经营杠杆效应。2）利润表现较弱即利润下滑的企业包括比音勒芬、太平鸟、富安娜：比音勒芬、太平鸟、富安娜净利润分别同比下滑29.5%、32.6%、38.0%，反映出传统家纺与时尚服饰品牌在消费疲软中盈利波动性较大，负经营杠杆效应明显。2026Q1，利润端整体大幅回暖。12 家公司中，11 家实现归母净利润正增长（仅九牧王归母净利润下滑），12 家均实现扣非净利润的增长，体现出服装消费和板块业绩的大幅回暖。Q1 利润回暖存在一定季节性因素，今年春节较晚，服装旺销期长；但总体而言，多数公司营收与利润的同步改善，印证了消费复苏正在从终端零售向企业盈利传导。分公司看，森马服饰（归母净利润+45.2%）增速领跑，主要源于经营效率提升的费用优化，预计利润率的提升具备可持续性；其次为罗莱生活（归母净利润同比+30.5%），持续验证大单品策略效果。图59：服装家纺行业主要公司收入情况（百万元，%）图60：服装家纺行业主要公司利润情况（百万元，%）请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 36图61：服装家纺行业主要公司扣非利润情况（百万元，%）11.3 渠道分析：门店收缩成主流，直营与线上表现领先门店收缩成主旋律。12 家服装家纺公司中两家男装企业净增门店，海澜之家净增152家至7330 家，比音勒芬净增106 家至1400 家，其余处于净关店状态（水星家纺未披露），行业从跑马圈地转向收缩聚焦。门店收缩，直营为先，店效优先于店数。大部分公司渠道收缩的情况下，渠道结构呈现出直营扩张、加盟萎缩的态势。海澜之家截止2025 年末公司直营店2372 家，较年初增加688 家，占比提升至32.4%，海澜品牌12 个月以上直营门店店效307万元、同比增长9.6%；加盟店4858 家，较年初减少248 家。比音勒芬2025 年末门店总数1400 家，较年初净开106 家，其中直营761 家，较年初净增117 家，加盟639 家，较年初净减11 家，门店结构战略性优化，直营占比持续提升。森马服饰2025 年线上渠道保持稳健增长，直营渠道提速，期末直营门店1028 家（净增48 家），单店面积和店效均有提升；加盟渠道处于调整期、同比-5.03%，期末加盟门店6872家（净减388 家）。三家龙头公司均体现出直营扩张、加盟收缩，直营店净开店、加盟店经关店的趋势。表明服装家纺行业“关小店、开大店、提店效”，行业从外延式扩张向内生式增长转型。图62：服装家纺行业主要公司门店情况请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3711.4 盈利能力：毛利率整体稳定，净利率分化加剧毛利率层面，水星家纺、罗莱生活等家纺企业全年毛利率同比改善，反映家纺行业大单品策略带来的产品结构升级及线上渠道提效生效；歌力思、地素时尚等高端女装凭借其品牌定位毛利率维持高位，大众休闲中森马服饰、太平鸟毛利率改善，主要渠道结构变化，直营占比提升拉动整体毛利率，后续需要继续观察渠道结构情况。净利率层面，费用刚性及线上投流费用部分对冲毛利率上行，水星家纺、富安娜等家纺企业表现较为明显，大单品策略初期毛利率、费用率双升，我们预计随着大单品放量规模效应下费用率有望回落。2026Q1 随着旺季消费复苏，重点公司盈利能力环比改善。森马服饰、比音勒芬及家纺企业罗莱、水星、富安娜均呈现出盈利能力的上行。全年来看，随着库存去化完成、折扣收窄及渠道质量提升，海澜之家凭借加盟模式轻资产运营有望保持盈利稳定，比音勒芬等高盈利企业有望延续双高格局，重点公司盈利能力在消费复苏、折扣收窄、费用优化的三重驱动下有望逐季改善。图63：服装家纺行业主要公司盈利能力（%）图64：服装家纺行业主要公司期间费率（%）请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 38重点公司：海澜之家：25 年整体稳健，Q1 业绩亮眼，经营效率改善。2025 年公司实现收入216.26 亿元，同比+3.19%;26Q1 营业收入66.61 亿元（同比+7.66%）。2025 年毛利率同比+0.35pct 至44.87%，归母净利率同比-0.28pct 至10.02%，主要系主品牌增长放缓及线上渠道费用投放增加所致；2026Q1 毛利率同比-1.3pct 至45.32%，归母净利率同比-0.87pct 至14.25%。主品牌增速提升，直营渠道增长强劲，加盟渠道仍承压但我们预计门店出清接近尾声。公司积极布局运动赛道和城市奥莱，海外拓展加速，未来增长路径明确。森马服饰：25 年童装稳增、休闲承压，Q1 业绩亮眼，经营效率改善。2025 年公司实现收入150.90 亿元（同比+3.17%），26Q1 营业收入34.49 亿元（同比+12.03%），收入提速。2025年毛利率同比+1.28pct至45.1%，归母净利率同比-1.87pct至5.91%；2026Q1 毛利率同比+0.7pct 至47.7%，归母净利率同比+2.07pct 至9.03%，盈利逐步改善。预计2026 年全年随着童装业务恢复增长及成人装渠道调整见效，盈利能力有望延续改善。歌力思：25 年可比口径收入稳健增长，Q1 经营质量显著提升。2025 年可比口径主营收入同比增长2.5%，其中国内业务可比收入同比增长约5.6%。2025 年毛利率同比-0.46pct 至66.9%，归母净利率同比+15.97pct 至5.77%；2026Q1 毛利率同比+5.15pct 至70.84%，归母净利率同比-0.42pct 至5.51%，剔除百秋尚美股权转让一次性影响后，归母经营性利润同比增长约 70%，经营质量显著提升。公司具备多品牌矩阵，主品牌持续稳健增长，国际品牌持续高增。2026Q1 经营质量进一步提升，多品牌协同发展、费用精细化管控成效显著，看好全年业绩弹性释放。罗莱生活：爆品驱动增长，家具盈利改善。2025 年公司实现收入48.39 亿元（同比+6.13%）；26Q1 营业收入11.58 亿元（同比+5.87%）。 2025 年毛利率同比+2.52pct至50.53%，归母净利率同比+1.25pct 至10.74%，毛利率改善、渠道扩张期费用增加综合作用下公司净利润率提升；2026Q1 毛利率同比+3.61pct 至49.6%，归母净利率同比+2.41pct 至12.74%，环比提升明显。我们认为大单品策略驱动下，公司费用率有望呈现规模效应，净利率有望持续提升。水星家纺：大单品驱动收入增长，利润率持续提升。2025 年公司实现收入45.28 亿元（同比+7.99%）；26Q1 营业收入9.79 亿元（同比+5.74%）。 2025 年毛利率同比+3.55pct 至44.95%，归母净利率同比+0.24pct 至10.0%，实现毛利率净利率双升；2026Q1 毛利率同比+2.39pct 至46.3%，归母净利率同比+1.04pct 至10.74%，延续提升趋势。我们认为随着被芯等大单品策略深化及线下渠道优化，公司盈利能力有望持续提升。总结：2025 年A 股服装家纺板块盈利能力呈现家纺优于大众休闲的分化格局。2026Q1 随着消费复苏及企业主动调整见效，多数企业盈利能力环比改善，森马服饰、歌力思、罗莱生活归母净利率均实现同比或环比提升。展望2026 年全年，我们建议重点关注两类机会：一是产品结构优化明确、电商运营效率领先的家纺企业（如水星家纺、罗莱生活）；二是渠道改革见效、费用率有望优化的休闲服饰企业（如森马服饰、海澜之家）；三是品牌升级见效、新品牌培育进入收获期的高端女装企业（如歌力思）。请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 39
12. 运动服饰&制造：国内品牌景气改善，代工环节承压
12.1 运动服饰：赛道景气延续，关注多品牌矩阵与奥运周期运动鞋服与户外用品是纺织服装行业中景气度较高的细分赛道。2025 年，在居民消费理性化与运动健康意识深化的双重作用下，行业延续景气增长，但是品牌端与制造端的景气度出现显著分化：国产运动品牌凭借DTC 转型和多品牌矩阵等策略持续领跑，而代工制造龙头则在关税影响与汇率波动中呈现压力。运动服饰：25 年安踏领跑，26 年李宁关注奥运红利从收入与利润增速看，安踏体育以802 亿元营收、13.3%的收入同比增速领跑行业，2025 年归母净利润同比下滑12.9%，因2024 年含Amer Sports 上市一次性收益基数影响，剔除后同比增长13.9%；李宁营收增速为3.2%、归母净利润下滑2.6%，表现相对较弱；特步国际营收增速4.2%放缓明显、归母净利润增10.8%；361 度营收增长10.6%、归母净利润增长14.0%，增速在四家最优，受益超品店模式突破及电商高增长，展现出成长韧性。从2026Q1 流水看：安踏体育多品牌矩阵全面开花，安踏主品牌实现高单位数增长，FILA 恢复双位数增长、其他品牌（迪桑特、可隆等）增速维持在40-45%高位，显示高端户外赛道景气延续；李宁大货中单位数增长较2025 年有所恢复，我们认为2026 年李宁赞助奥运会的红利将有所释放；特步国际主品牌低单位数增长平稳，索康尼延续20%以上高增；361 度全渠道表现均衡，线下主品牌与童装均实现10%增长，电商中双位数增速。整体上，国产运动品牌开年顺利，2026 年为体育大年，运动品牌全年增长可期。从2026年全年指引看：安踏体育维持积极增长目标，FILA中单位数、其他品牌20%+的高增长指引彰显多品牌协同信心；李宁给出收入增速及净利率高单位数指引；特步国际明确集团收入中单位数、新品牌20%-30%的增长目标，同时指引净利率维持高单位数；361 度给出8%-10%收入增长目标，Q1 增速已高于全年指引，全年达成确定性较强。整体看，各公司维持审慎乐观的指引，一方面展现出发展的信心，另一方面也展现出各公司对于经营质量而非对增长速度的追求。图65：四大国产运动品牌2025 年核心财务与运营数据对比总结：2025 年运动服饰板块呈现仍呈现出赛道优势，国产品牌取得较好增长但也有所分化。展望2026 年全年，品牌端我们建议重点关注三类机会：一是品牌调整见效、奥运红利驱动的品牌（如李宁）；二是多品牌矩阵协同效应持续释放的综合性龙头（如安踏体育）；三是超品店模式突破、成长韧性突出的高弹性标的（如361 度）。请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 4012.2 纺织制造：上游纺织和代工分化，原材料涨价成重要变量据海关总署统计，2025 年中国纺织品服装出口总额2937.7 亿美元（同比-2.4%），其中纺织品出口1425.8亿美元（同比+0.5%），服装出口1511.8亿美元（同比-5.0%）。服装出口大幅下滑是拖累整体的核心因素。季度节奏上，纺织服装出口额Q1 微增0.6%，Q4 跌幅扩大。2026Q1，出口数据初现暖意，纺织服装合计出口670.8 亿美元(同比+1.2%），其中纺织品出口341.9 亿美元（同比+2.8%），服装仍微下滑0.4%。图66：中国纺织品服装出口趋势(2025Q1-2026Q1)2025 年，三大纺织原材料价格走势显著分化，棉花低位震荡，锦纶大跌后反弹，羊毛逆势上涨。进入2026Q1，三种原材料均加速上行，行业盈利进一步分化。其中棉花2025 年呈宽幅震荡格局，2026 年新疆棉花种植面积目标调减，供给端趋紧支撑价格中枢持续上移。锦纶2025 年己内酰胺价格全年呈现下降趋势，进入2026Q1，锦纶价格大幅上涨，中东地缘冲突推高原油成本是核心驱动。羊毛价格2025Q1-Q3相对平稳，Q4 开始加速上涨，进入2026Q1，羊毛价格延续上涨势头。三种原材料价格走势对龙头纺企盈利影响显著。2026Q1 棉价、锦纶、羊毛价格加速上涨则有利于百隆东方、台华新材、新澳股份等前期备货充足的企业释放库存红利。从数据来看，新澳股份、百隆东方、台华新材25Q4 和26Q1 毛利率呈现明显的同比、环比提升态势（新澳股份26Q1 毛利率同比微下滑0.4 个百分点，主要系公司在阶段性消化低价单而成本端加权平均计价下已有所抬升），印证龙头纺企在涨价周期中顺价能力更强，业绩端能充分享受产业链涨价红利。图67：新澳股份、百隆东方、台华新材近两个季度毛利率受益于涨价（单位：%）24Q124Q224Q324Q425Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1新澳股份百隆东方台华新材请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 41收入利润整体平稳，略有下滑，内部分化。2025 年全年，11 家公司合计营收约775亿元、同比下滑2%；归母净利润合计约75 亿元、同比下滑1%。内部呈现显著结构性分化，上游纺织企业明显好于下游代工企业。代工龙头华利集团2025 年收入同比增速放缓至+4.1%，下半年收入呈现下滑。上游纺织企业，新澳股份、百隆东方则呈现出下半年收入增速转正或者增长提速的现象。代工端，华利集团自2025 年下半年以来的压力来自于：主要客户订单收缩、较多新工厂处于爬坡阶段以及产能调配安排，主要表现为毛利率同比明显下滑，预计2026H2 会随着订单修复和产能爬坡进入毛利率修复期。纺织端，龙头纺企凭借成本优势、海外产能优势预计份额有所提升，预计Q2 仍会延续盈利改善趋势。2026Q1订单回暖信号开始显现但仍然呈现分化。新澳股份Q1营收同比+16.53%、归母净利润同比+18.62%，羊绒业务高增与毛精纺纱线价格上涨形成双击。百隆东方Q1 营收同比+14.85%、归母净利润同比+39.83%，延续高增势头。健盛集团Q1收入同比+2.8%、归母净利润同比+51.92%，无缝业务进入盈利释放期持续验证。华利集团Q1 营收同比-19.40%、归母净利润同比-49.60%。整体上仍然呈现上游纺织优于下游代工，代工端内部分化。展望代工端的回暖节奏，我们认为绑定强势品牌的厂商率先回暖，而与Nike 库存调整周期深度绑定的企业仍在筑底。图68：纺织制造行业主要公司收入情况（百万元，%）图69：纺织制造行业主要公司利润情况（百万元，%）盈利能力：毛利率分化，原材料涨价是关键因素2025 年毛利率分化：伟星股份毛利率42.0%（同比+0.3pct），伟星股份的毛利率在制造企业里属于较高水平，我们推测源于拉链纽扣领域的品牌溢价，定价权较强。请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 42健盛集团毛利率30.2%（同比+1.4pct），棉袜与无缝内衣双重业务驱动，规模效应逐步显现。新澳股份毛利率20.0%（同比+1.0pct），毛利率的提升来自于毛精纺纱线产品优化+羊绒业务产能利用率提升和效率提升。百隆东方毛利率13.7%（同比+3.5pct），棉价低位运行叠加越南基地效率提升，盈利弹性持续释放。台华新材毛利率20.8%（同比-2.2pct），锦纶长丝价格同比下跌拖累毛利，但差异化产品（PA66、再生锦纶）占比提升部分对冲常规长丝的盈利压力。华利集团毛利率21.9%（同比-4.9pct），新工厂产能爬坡期与产能调配是毛利率下滑的主因。我们认为2025 年纺织制造板块毛利率的分化与产业链位置、产能利用率与产品差异化程度等核心变量有关。2026Q1 纺织公司多数呈现出毛利率同环比改善，原材料涨价背景下成本传导能力成为盈利分水岭。新澳股份Q1 毛利率20.38%（同比-0.4pct、环比+1.3pct），主要系加权平均成本法下利润端尚未充分反应涨价红利。百隆东方Q1 毛利率17.07%（同比+2.21pct、环比+2.6pct），成本端降幅大于价格端降幅叠加越南产能利用率爬坡与生产效率提升共同推动毛利率上行。台华新材Q1 毛利率24.55%（同比+2.22pct、环比+4.29pct），环比改善尤为突出，3 月产业链价格大涨后Q2 盈利修复有望进一步打开。代工端仍然有分化，健盛集团Q1 毛利率29.19%（同比+2.35pct、环比-2.7pct），棉袜及无缝两业务盈利能力均有改善；华利集团Q1 毛利率约17.9%（同比-5pct、环比-3.8pct），订单下滑导致产能利用率降低叠加新工厂仍处于爬坡期，共同拖累整体毛利率表现，后续随着订单的修复和产能爬坡的推进公司毛利有望迎来修复。图70：纺织制造行业主要公司毛利率（%）图71：纺织制造行业主要公司净利率（%）请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 43重点公司新澳股份：业绩稳健增长，羊毛涨价驱动，羊绒业务成长。2025 年公司实现营业收入50.52 亿元（同比+4.37%），扣非归母净利润4.69 亿元（同比+14.51%），其中Q4 扣非净利润同比增72%。2026Q1 公司实现营收12.85 亿元（同比+16.53%）；归母净利润1.20 亿元（同比+18.62%）。公司处在“羊毛价格上行周期、海内外新产能释放、羊绒业务规模化放量”三重动力增长期，短期价格上行增厚业绩，中期来看，公司海外羊毛产能持续释放，羊绒业务协同效应下有望利润率持续提升，公司具备成长性。百隆东方：差异化助力订单快速增长，毛利率改善趋势延续。2025全年实现收入78.61亿元（同比-1.02%），归母净利润6.56 亿元（同比+59.96%），扣非归母净利润6.12亿元（同比+178.99%），越南盈利高增。2026Q1 公司实现收入19.88 亿元（同比+14.85%），归母净利润2.43 亿元（同比+39.83%），扣非归母净利润为2.15 亿元（同比+46.28%），成本红利驱动毛利率改善。展望后市，棉价处于上行周期，棉纱线产品价格回升叠加低价库存成本红利，公司毛利率提升趋势有望持续。长期来看，公司越南布局优势凸显，坯纱&色纺纱份额提升空间大。台华新材：原材料价格驱动Q4 业绩拐点已现，Q1 毛利率同环比继续改善。2025 全年实现收入64.08 亿元（同比-10.01%），归母净利润5.31 亿元（同比-26.79%）；2025Q4 实现收入17.04 亿元（同比-11.93%），扣非归母净利润0.96 亿元（同比+30.71%），Q4 呈现明显拐点。Q1 实现营收14.35 亿元，同比-2.89%；扣非归母净利润1.11 亿元（同比+6.47%）；毛利率24.55%，同比+2.22pct、环比+4.29pct。短期看，产业链涨价普通锦纶长丝产品盈利修复可期。长期看，公司持续强化公司在锦纶66、再生锦纶等差异化产品的竞争优势，产品结构优化叠加产业链上下游一体化布局，公司成长可期。12.2.3 运动制造：需求侧仍待修复，关税与汇率共压与品牌端相比，2025 年港股运动制造板块整体承压。申洲国际、裕元集团、晶苑国际三家代工龙头，面对为品牌客户分担关税、人民币升值、东南亚人工成本上升的三重挤压，盈利空间被显著压缩。2025 年3 家公司的毛利率有所压力，晶苑国际凭借客户结构优化与自动化提效实现毛利率逆势微升。运动制造端面临的共性挑战：一是Nike 在深度调整期，供应商订单受影响；二是关税分担加重成本压力；三是人工成本刚性上升：越南、印尼、柬埔寨等地熟练工竞争加剧，劳动力市场紧张，人员流动性加大。图72：三大运动制造公司2025 年核心财务与运营数据对比指标申洲国际（单位：人民币）裕元集团（单位：美元） 晶苑国际（单位：美元）营业收入（亿元）309.9480.3126.41营收同比增速8.1%-1.8%7.0%归母净利润（亿元）58.253.812.25净利润同比增速-6.7%-2.9%12.1%毛利率26.4%22.8%19.9%净利率18.8%4.9%8.5%重点公司申洲国际2025 年营收309.94 亿元、同比增长8.1%，在行业需求波动的背景下表现稳健；归母净利润58.25 亿元、同比下滑6.7%，增收不增利；毛利率从28.1%降至26.3%，净利率从21.8%降至18.8%。原因为：1）为部分客户分担美国市场的进口请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 44关税；2）柬埔寨新成衣工厂处于产能爬坡期；3）员工平均薪酬提升加剧人工费用压力。2026 年，公司将持续推进海内外产能建设及技术改造，通过自动化提升效率克服成本上涨。同时，加大研发投入，通过产品创新驱动长期稳健增长。我们仍然看好针织一体化龙头的行业竞争力。晶苑国际：2025 年全年营收26.41 亿美元、同比增长6.9%；归母净利润2.25 亿美元、同比增长12.0%；毛利率从19.7%微升至19.9%，净利率从8.1%提升至8.5%。自动化提效与产品结构优化是毛利率提升的核心驱动力。展望未来，晶苑在埃及积极布局产能，分散地缘政治风险，提升服务欧洲客户的能力，产业链延伸方面公司推进向上游面料延伸，越南自建布厂计划于 2026 年底投产，将增强休闲服及运动服品类的布料供应能力。总结：2025 年A 股纺织制造板块盈利能力呈现“上游纺织优于下游代工、辅料龙头优于成衣制造”的分化格局。2026Q1 随着原材料价格全面上涨，板块盈利分化进一步：百隆东方、台华新材、健盛集团毛利率同环比改善，成本传导与产品结构优化初见成效；华利集团仍处产能爬坡阵痛期，毛利率持续承压。展望2026 年全年，我们建议重点关注三类机会：一是具备原材料成本传导能力与低价库存储备的上游纺织龙头（如百隆东方、新澳股份）；二是产能爬坡进入收获期、毛利率拐点在即的代工制造企业（如华利集团、健盛集团、开润股份）；三是差异化产品占比提升、产业链一体化布局完善的锦纶企业（如台华新材）；四是运动制造端建议关注产能爬坡进入收获期、客户结构优化的代工龙头（如申洲国际、晶苑国际），以及绑定强势品牌率先回暖的细分龙头。
13. 包装：业绩稳健，分红积极
下游需求稳健，金属包装表现优异。纸包/塑料包装下游领域多元，需求韧性较强，尽管3C 消费阶段性销售规模下滑，25Q4、26Q1 永新股份/裕同科技收入仍表现平稳，同比分别-5.3%/+5.6%、+2.6%/+10.8%，其中1）永新股份近年来价格处于下降周期、因此我们判断销量表现更优；伴随原材料价格提升形成成本支撑，我们预计价格企稳、未来收入增长有望提速；2）裕同科技积极开拓第二成长曲线，核心客户供应品类扩张、协同优势放大，收入增速亦有望保持稳健。金属包装方面，26年春节时间较晚、三片需求26Q1 集中体现，且两片罐提价落地，昇兴、奥瑞金、宝钢成长提速，25Q4/26Q1 收入同比分别-1.5%/+16.7%、+101.5%/+29.3%、+1.9%/+21.9%。图 73：包装部分公司收入、利润梳理（百万元）25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1裕同科技11788.9414850.1316362.1015222.7017156.943699.014176.714725.684636.6417238.033793.3411839.1814924.1416462.4115300.6617227.603780.724238.964820.664729.7417331.133904.39YOY19.7%26.0%10.2%-7.0%12.7%6.4%7.7%-3.7%-5.3%0.5%2.6%19.8%26.1%10.3%-7.1%12.6%6.3%6.7%-3.4%-4.8%0.6%3.3%上海艾录774.911120.151122.111066.551190.64284.12302.16295.48292.551174.31268.34782.651145.851161.151112.461237.63339.35348.87357.70350.961232.72339.18YOY20.1%44.6%0.2%-5.0%11.6%5.5%0.0%-2.7%-7.2%-1.4%-5.6%19.9%46.4%1.3%-4.2%11.3%8.6%-1.2%-1.0%-3.2%-0.4%-0.1%紫江企业8417.649528.599607.949115.5110636.952362.912885.172573.901782.099604.072314.938576.039903.849773.7110637.8511072.762792.322959.712632.901844.159666.132379.44YOY-8.6%13.2%0.8%-5.1%16.7%5.3%19.0%2.2%-48.3%-9.7%-2.0%-9.0%15.5%-1.3%8.8%4.1%-30.3%-31.0%-39.9%-52.5%-12.7%-14.8%新巨丰1014.451241.841607.971737.391706.24357.68895.65791.56883.222928.11757.351018.651247.151609.161738.231709.91359.32912.08802.69899.182944.07776.00YOY8.5%22.4%29.5%8.0%-1.8%-18.2%132.1%85.7%93.2%71.6%111.7%7.9%22.4%29.0%8.0%-1.6%-17.9%135.6%87.2%95.1%72.2%116.0%美盈森3365.263605.174129.653512.964007.21970.62978.161051.45970.263970.49906.603375.843617.374135.093520.064018.74982.08990.431059.91980.223980.45914.80YOY-0.8%7.1%14.5%-14.9%14.1%15.3%-2.8%-4.0%-8.8%-0.9%-6.6%-0.9%7.2%14.3%-14.9%14.2%14.6%-2.3%-4.3%-8.8%-1.0%-6.9%昇兴股份2903.015166.126877.657094.807130.251622.341602.551845.102103.927173.911892.743046.405269.256925.297138.777165.751658.221650.091907.582156.997226.971965.02YOY13.9%78.0%33.1%3.2%0.5%-3.2%3.8%4.0%-1.5%0.6%16.7%18.2%73.0%31.4%3.1%0.4%-3.1%4.4%5.4%-0.7%0.9%18.5%奥瑞金10561.0113884.9814067.0713842.8413672.915574.346152.236619.035674.6024020.207206.7910628.0214004.6014199.2413953.1713777.045758.966318.326782.125918.8224264.437480.46YOY12.7%31.5%1.3%-1.6%-1.2%57.0%68.3%81.3%101.5%75.7%29.3%12.7%31.8%1.4%-1.7%-1.3%58.3%58.6%81.7%102.7%76.1%29.9%宝钢包装5785.516968.288543.387760.468318.312001.852272.812306.382198.368779.402441.065863.097028.128593.017810.278369.562057.682320.502382.412257.528838.562503.38YOY0.3%20.4%22.6%-9.2%7.2%1.0%12.6%6.8%1.9%5.5%21.9%0.0%19.9%22.3%-9.1%7.2%0.8%11.8%6.2%2.2%5.6%21.7%永新股份2737.503023.693304.143378.793525.46848.18898.02959.891017.283723.37939.842750.593029.313311.893401.443538.86866.58909.32967.711045.783751.87957.75YOY5.3%10.5%9.3%2.3%4.3%1.6%10.1%8.0%3.2%5.6%10.8%5.5%10.1%9.3%2.7%4.0%2.8%10.5%7.7%4.6%6.0%10.5%裕同科技1120.161017.221487.871438.091408.56241.09312.75626.99411.531592.35245.78984.74908.091515.271494.041514.00246.31559.591184.511525.401525.40249.92YOY7.2%-9.2%46.3%-3.3%-2.1%10.3%12.3%1.6%39.7%13.0%1.9%1.8%-7.8%66.9%-1.4%1.3%1.4%7.1%4.9%0.8%0.8%1.5%上海艾录111.16144.71106.2875.2853.330.782.14-50.89-74.70-122.68-1.98107.49140.6997.1470.0946.280.353.09-46.26-116.67-116.67-3.74YOY73.5%30.2%-26.6%-29.2%-29.2%-97.3%-90.8%-532.8%-641.4%-330.1%-354.1%86.8%30.9%-31.0%-27.8%-34.0%-98.6%-93.5%-179.5%-352.1%-352.1%-1155.8%紫江企业565.21553.18603.19559.55808.81169.27303.52492.9071.601037.28218.38536.03533.28524.32564.52787.17164.35468.97691.25780.54780.54209.38YOY14.4%-2.1%9.0%-7.2%44.5%7.8%53.8%184.7%-74.5%28.2%29.0%28.3%-0.5%-1.7%7.7%39.4%4.8%33.2%33.1%-0.8%-0.8%27.4%新巨丰169.10157.20169.52170.19183.8513.1345.889.02-24.3243.706.03161.40147.28136.76164.03157.1511.1643.7250.3031.2331.234.34YOY46.4%-7.0%7.8%0.4%8.0%-75.0%37.2%-76.7%-141.1%-76.2%-54.1%50.0%-8.7%-7.1%19.9%-4.2%-74.5%-42.5%-54.9%-80.1%-80.1%-61.1%美盈森194.0998.91134.63196.09281.6080.3695.7484.030.80260.9461.36144.9383.6585.85239.81297.9677.24169.58249.22268.61268.6160.14YOY-63.7%-49.0%36.1%45.6%43.6%15.7%18.7%22.5%-98.7%-7.3%-23.6%-62.3%-42.3%2.6%179.3%24.2%15.1%0.8%6.1%-9.9%-9.9%-22.1%昇兴股份13.64170.50209.29333.04423.3092.9154.4369.2190.60307.15151.555.63149.96180.77336.77407.4382.90133.70196.49279.13279.13148.07YOY-74.5%1149.9%22.7%59.1%27.1%-23.6%-51.4%-37.1%13.8%-27.4%63.1%-55.8%2564.4%20.5%86.3%21.0%-30.6%-39.4%-40.0%-31.5%-31.5%78.6%奥瑞金707.43905.12565.16774.53790.51664.58238.59173.06-69.531006.70517.12521.59798.50459.83746.15761.62189.32400.97567.97503.50503.50319.19YOY3.5%27.9%-37.6%37.0%2.1%137.9%-11.4%-18.6%-336.5%27.3%-22.2%-12.0%53.1%-42.4%62.3%2.1%-28.4%-24.2%-23.7%-33.9%-33.9%68.6%宝钢包装158.66270.50268.44218.57172.3857.3645.1973.1811.97187.7065.39158.96265.26253.29216.15167.2657.0199.71172.19182.60182.6064.47YOY24.4%70.5%-0.8%-18.6%-21.1%2.7%20.4%15.1%-22.4%8.9%14.0%42.8%66.9%-4.5%-14.7%-22.6%9.2%13.7%14.4%9.2%9.2%13.1%永新股份303.03315.91362.83408.05467.7588.9294.35125.93128.94438.1390.75275.68279.63321.53384.80440.4583.25172.63291.17408.86408.8683.90YOY12.6%4.3%14.9%12.5%14.6%2.9%0.6%1.0%-20.9%-6.3%2.1%15.7%1.4%15.0%19.7%14.5%3.1%1.9%1.1%-7.2%-7.2%0.8%营业收入规模及增速收入&合同负债规模及增速归母净利润及增速扣非归母净利润及增速请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 45盈利表现分化。裕同科技25Q4/26Q1 毛利率、归母净利率分别+3.1/+2.9pct、+2.9/-0.04pct，盈利表现优异我们预计主要系公司主动优化客户结构，高毛利率客户占比提升；26Q1 净利率下滑主要受汇率影响，还原汇兑损失后归母净利率同比+2.0pct。永新股份25Q4/26Q1 毛利率、归母净利率分别-1.1/-0.4pct、-3.9/-0.8pct，盈利承压亦受汇率压制，且价格竞争加剧；我们判断伴随主营产品价格企稳、盈利能力有望保持平稳，中长期受益于规模优势&产品结构优化、利润中枢有望平稳上行。金属包装方面，昇兴/奥瑞金/宝钢26Q1 毛利率同比分别+2.2/+0.9/-0.1pct，我们预计昇兴、奥瑞金表现优异主要受益于前期备货低价铝材、以及三片旺季、利润结构阶段性优化；26Q2 我们预计两片延续涨价，但原材料亦高位提升，盈利能力或延续低位震荡，但两片供需改善、格局优化，未来基准价格或将持续提升、助力龙头企业盈利稳步向上。图 74：包装部分公司盈利能力梳理分红策略积极。2025 年美盈森、永新、裕同、紫江现金分红比例分别为85.7%、76.9%、70.6%、51.2%，对应股息率分别为4.3%、4.9%、3.2%、5.0%；包装行业需求稳健、资本开支弱化，龙头企业保持积极分红策略，其中裕同科技分红率同比提升约10pct、我们预计未来有望维持高位。图 75：包装部分公司分红梳理（亿元）25Q125Q225Q325Q426Q125Q125Q225Q325Q426Q1裕同科技26.83%21.54%23.75%26.23%24.80%22.13%23.35%28.74%26.87%25.51%25.05%9.50%6.85%9.09%9.45%8.21%6.52%7.49%13.27%8.88%9.24%6.48%YOY-3.20%-5.29%2.21%2.48%-1.43%0.04%-1.60%1.18%3.06%0.72%2.93%-1.11%-2.65%2.24%0.35%-1.24%0.23%0.31%0.69%2.86%1.03%-0.04%上海艾录33.94%28.56%23.47%23.57%21.63%18.12%20.79%16.96%18.25%18.55%19.79%14.34%12.92%9.47%7.06%4.48%0.27%0.71%-17.22%-25.54%-10.45%-0.74%YOY4.26%-5.38%-5.09%0.11%-1.94%-8.21%-3.61%-4.92%3.54%-3.08%1.66%4.41%-1.43%-3.45%-2.41%-2.58%-10.29%-6.97%-21.09%-22.34%-14.93%-1.01%紫江企业21.36%21.20%20.58%21.38%23.80%21.63%24.83%23.92%21.69%23.21%23.03%6.71%5.81%6.28%6.14%7.60%7.16%10.52%19.15%4.02%10.80%9.43%YOY1.16%-0.16%-0.62%0.80%2.42%-0.50%2.67%2.19%-5.85%-0.58%1.40%1.35%-0.91%0.47%-0.14%1.47%0.16%2.38%12.28%-4.14%3.20%2.27%新巨丰34.81%27.29%17.23%21.66%23.78%25.24%19.90%19.21%15.65%19.09%18.53%16.67%12.66%10.54%9.80%10.78%3.67%5.12%1.14%-2.75%1.49%0.80%YOY3.95%-7.51%-10.06%4.43%2.12%2.69%-3.86%-4.03%-9.83%-4.69%-6.70%4.31%-4.01%-2.12%-0.75%0.98%-8.35%-3.54%-7.96%-15.69%-9.28%-2.87%美盈森23.73%22.89%18.71%25.23%26.69%26.52%27.53%27.53%21.86%25.90%25.51%5.77%2.74%3.26%5.58%7.03%8.28%9.79%7.99%0.08%6.57%6.77%YOY-8.35%-0.84%-4.18%6.53%1.46%-1.57%-0.98%0.71%-1.88%-0.80%-1.01%-10.01%-3.02%0.52%2.32%1.45%0.03%1.77%1.73%-5.83%-0.46%-1.51%昇兴股份11.07%10.85%9.47%13.45%14.50%11.65%9.02%9.47%13.43%11.03%13.81%0.47%3.30%3.04%4.69%5.94%5.73%3.40%3.75%4.31%4.28%8.01%YOY-2.43%-0.23%-1.38%3.98%1.05%-2.37%-6.45%-4.19%-1.43%-3.47%2.16%-1.63%2.83%-0.26%1.65%1.24%-1.53%-3.85%-2.46%0.58%-1.66%2.28%奥瑞金20.87%15.53%11.86%15.24%16.31%13.60%14.59%12.44%10.66%12.84%14.47%6.70%6.52%4.02%5.60%5.78%11.92%3.88%2.61%-1.23%4.19%7.18%YOY-3.42%-5.34%-3.67%3.38%1.07%-4.65%-2.80%-3.83%-1.84%-3.47%0.87%-0.59%-0.18%-2.50%1.58%0.19%4.06%-3.49%-3.21%-2.27%-1.59%-4.75%宝钢包装10.58%9.51%8.02%9.02%8.10%7.06%7.11%8.08%8.23%7.63%6.95%2.74%3.88%3.14%2.82%2.07%2.87%1.99%3.17%0.54%2.14%2.68%YOY-2.29%-1.07%-1.48%0.99%-0.92%-1.32%-0.36%-1.12%0.90%-0.46%-0.11%0.53%1.14%-0.74%-0.33%-0.74%0.05%0.13%0.23%-0.17%0.07%-0.19%永新股份24.36%22.24%22.20%24.66%23.78%21.30%21.06%24.44%24.79%23.00%20.86%11.07%10.45%10.98%12.08%13.27%10.48%10.51%13.12%12.67%11.77%9.66%YOY0.17%-2.12%-0.04%2.46%-0.88%-0.76%-1.65%0.38%-1.10%-0.78%-0.44%0.72%-0.62%0.53%1.10%1.19%0.13%-0.98%-0.91%-3.85%-1.50%-0.83%裕同科技2.74%2.45%2.47%2.74%2.94%2.80%3.01%2.70%3.35%2.97%3.01%13.17%10.98%14.53%13.01%12.27%2.08%2.72%5.49%3.48%13.14%2.01%YOY-2.05%-0.29%0.02%0.27%0.20%0.10%-0.40%0.00%0.36%0.03%0.21%-3.26%-2.19%3.54%-1.52%-0.75%0.12%0.21%-0.07%0.89%0.87%-0.07%上海艾录4.87%1.88%2.22%2.43%2.37%2.14%1.98%2.24%4.05%2.60%2.61%14.53%14.21%9.65%6.34%3.48%0.05%0.14%-3.41%-5.28%-9.01%-0.15%YOY-0.10%-2.99%0.34%0.21%-0.06%0.11%-0.34%0.00%1.23%0.23%0.47%4.73%-0.32%-4.56%-3.31%-2.86%-2.32%-1.76%-4.37%-4.56%-12.49%-0.20%紫江企业2.59%2.30%2.21%2.04%2.33%1.34%1.79%1.29%1.66%1.52%1.33%10.64%9.98%10.95%9.70%13.13%2.71%4.86%7.67%1.07%15.52%3.21%YOY-1.92%-0.29%-0.09%-0.18%0.29%-0.29%0.28%-0.22%-2.29%-0.81%-0.01%0.59%-0.66%0.97%-1.25%3.43%0.02%1.47%4.70%-3.60%2.40%0.50%新巨丰5.03%4.77%1.31%2.31%2.39%3.52%2.63%1.72%1.76%2.23%2.27%17.14%13.74%7.15%7.64%6.96%0.50%1.71%0.33%-0.91%1.66%0.23%YOY-0.49%-0.26%-3.46%1.00%0.09%1.69%-0.35%-0.38%-0.96%-0.16%-1.25%4.27%-3.40%-6.59%0.49%-0.68%-1.78%0.34%-1.23%-3.20%-5.30%-0.27%美盈森5.26%6.96%5.72%6.80%7.16%6.72%6.62%6.65%7.32%6.82%6.52%4.01%2.06%2.74%3.86%6.27%1.77%2.12%1.87%0.02%5.86%1.37%YOY-1.88%1.70%-1.25%1.08%0.37%-1.53%-0.11%0.12%-0.06%-0.34%-0.20%-6.39%-1.95%0.68%1.12%2.41%0.41%0.54%0.45%-1.36%-0.41%-0.40%昇兴股份0.88%0.51%0.42%0.60%0.51%0.45%0.43%0.30%0.61%0.45%0.52%0.75%6.27%7.35%10.79%12.39%2.68%1.56%2.00%2.59%8.65%4.19%YOY-2.65%-0.37%-0.09%0.18%-0.09%0.02%-0.23%-0.25%0.19%-0.05%0.07%-2.16%5.52%1.09%3.44%1.60%-1.18%-1.92%-1.36%0.22%-3.74%1.51%奥瑞金1.77%1.15%1.37%1.67%1.84%1.30%2.13%1.49%1.40%1.59%1.16%10.74%11.97%6.85%8.87%8.71%7.08%2.47%1.78%-0.71%10.36%5.18%YOY-2.26%-0.62%0.22%0.30%0.17%-0.08%0.33%-0.39%-1.01%-0.25%-0.14%-1.19%1.24%-5.13%2.02%-0.16%3.92%-0.55%-0.58%-1.04%1.65%-1.90%宝钢包装0.85%0.81%0.85%1.12%0.97%0.87%0.84%0.73%0.61%0.76%0.67%6.74%7.55%7.13%5.69%3.86%1.28%1.00%1.61%0.26%4.16%1.44%YOY-2.54%-0.04%0.04%0.27%-0.15%-0.17%-0.59%-0.49%0.39%-0.21%-0.20%1.22%0.81%-0.42%-1.44%-1.83%-0.17%0.01%-0.08%-0.11%0.30%0.17%永新股份2.32%1.81%1.71%1.70%1.65%1.78%1.49%1.45%2.28%1.76%1.77%15.22%14.84%15.92%16.60%18.07%3.38%3.72%5.31%5.35%17.69%3.60%YOY-2.08%-0.51%-0.11%0.00%-0.05%-0.30%-0.22%0.30%0.58%0.10%-0.01%0.73%-0.38%1.08%0.68%1.46%-0.33%-0.44%0.04%-1.15%-0.37%0.22%毛利率归母净利率销售费用率ROE请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 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14. 风险因素
国内&海外消费复苏不及预期。国内下游消费疲软将压制企业成长；本文浆价上行、出口订单延续增长等结论基于海外需求修复的假设，若复苏幅度&节奏低于预期，将影响上下游收入增长。美伊冲突力度超预期。美伊冲突或对全球航路、原材料价格等多方面造成影响。全球贸易摩擦加剧。若中美贸易摩擦加剧、关税抬升，或将影响出口企业订单&盈利能力。地产销售复苏低于预期。家居公司作为地产后周期企业，若地产销售超预期下行，将影响下游家居消费需求。原材料价格大幅波动。上游木浆价格大幅波动或导致中游造纸企业盈利承压；铝材、马口铁价格大幅波动或导致金属包装企业盈利承压；原油大幅波动或导致塑料包装企业盈利承压；金价大幅波动或导致终端消费者观望情绪。新型烟草政策风险。若合规收紧，发展空间或受限。请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 47研究团队简介姜文镪，信达证券研究开发中心所长助理，新消费研究中心总经理，上海交通大学硕士，第一作者发表多篇SCI+EI 论文，曾就职于国盛证券，带领团队获2024 年新财富最佳分析师第四名、2023/2024 年水晶球评选第四名、2024 年金麒麟最佳分析师第四名。李晨，本科毕业于加州大学尔湾分校物理学院，主修数学/辅修会计；研究生毕业于罗切斯特大学西蒙商学院，金融硕士学位。2022 年加入国盛证券研究所，跟随团队在新财富、金麒麟、水晶球等评选中获得佳绩；2024 年加入信达证券研究开发中心，主要覆盖造纸、轻工出口、电子烟等赛道。骆峥，本科毕业于中国海洋大学，硕士毕业于伦敦国王学院大学。曾就职于开源证券研究所，具备3 年多消费行业研究经验，跟随团队在金麒麟、21 世纪金牌分析师等评选中获得佳绩。2025 年加入信达证券研究开发中心，主要覆盖黄金珠宝、两轮车、跨境电商等赛道。刘田田，对外经济贸易大学金融硕士 。2017-2018 年2 年买方经验，覆盖大消费行业研究，积累了买方研究思维。2019 年1 月-2025 年11 月就职于东兴证券研究所，任大消费组组长、纺服&轻工行业首席分析师。2025 年12 月加入信达证券研究开发中心，任纺织服装行业联席首席分析师，覆盖纺织服装全行业，擅长产业链视角研究和跟踪公司。请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 48