本报告禁止在中国内地发布 (请参阅本报告背面的重要信息披露及声明)
宏观及策略 | 中国焦点策略 2026年9月9日
中银国际证券有限公司
胡文洲, CFA
(852)39886429
ericw.hu@bocigroup.com
彭助
(852)39886408
pennyz.peng@bocigroup.com
股票市场禁售压力较大，板
块分化极端行情难以重现
我们认为，未来几个月，板块分化极端行情难以重现，市场资金博弈或将在
AI板块与传统板块之间切换平衡。近期，海外龙头厂商的财报再度验证AI
行业景气度延续。国内方面，工信部宣布要加快全国一体化算力网建设，要
求到2030年信息基础设施累计投资3.8万亿元。将国产芯片适配纳入任务
要求，推动万卡、十万卡大型智算集群扩大本土芯片导入比例，利好国产AI
芯片、高速光模块、服务器硬件产业链。预计未来几个月资本市场有望逐步
重回高盈利科技主线，但在交易拥挤、估值处于历史高位以及大量解禁到期
等多重因素影响下，极端行情难以重现；预计更多资金将切换至传统行业，
推动AI与非AI板块的交易再平衡。
美债利率上行和美联储鹰派立场仍是最大的外部不确定性。股市波动较大主
要是由于外部政策环境不确定性依然较高，美国政策多变，同时地缘政治冲
突阴云不散，都可能会影响风险资产的表现。不过，面对外部政策的不确定
性，我国拥有较丰富的增量政策储备工具，可以根据形势变化实施增量政
策。宏观政策重心预计将从单纯的总量刺激转向结构性改革，科技产业（尤
其是AI）被确立为新的经济增长引擎，以对冲传统地产行业的下行压力。但
是，如果政策落地不及预期，可能会影响投资者情绪。
根据万得数据，2026年全年，A股市场约有1,479家上市企业的限售股迎来
解禁，对应解禁市值约3.62万亿元，同比2025年全年增长6.6%。从月份
看，7月和12月的解禁压力最为集中，分别解禁5,191亿元和5,566亿元，
而11月、8月和2月解禁压力相对较小，分别仅解禁1,306亿元、1,836亿
元和1,958亿元。
分行业来看，今年9-12月待解禁企业主要集中在信息技术业，其待解禁市
值占9-12月整体解禁市值的比重接近一半（46.3%），大幅领先其他行业，
反映前期科技企业密集上市，且新股上市后的股价表现积极，而日常消费
业、金融业和公用事业企业的待解禁市值较小。
9月待解禁市值共2,272亿元，其中信息技术业公司待解禁市值约962亿
元，其后是工业（426亿元）、材料业（264亿元）和能源业（222亿
元）。9月待解禁市值排名前十的公司中，有五家为信息技术业企业。10月
的待解禁市值约3,171亿元，行业分布更为集中，信息技术业公司待解禁市
值高达2,152亿元，占比67.9%，其后是公用事业（227亿元）、能源业
（224亿元）和医疗保健业（187亿元）。10月待解禁市值排名前十的公司
中有四家为信息技术业企业。另外值得注意的是，9月和10月解禁市值靠前
的个股，其解禁股数量占总股本的比重也较高。随后的11月解禁压力较小
（1,306亿元），但12月为全年解禁压力最大的月份（5,566亿元），其中
信息技术业企业待解禁2,032亿元，材料业（1,205亿元）、金融业（965
亿元）和工业企业（528亿元）待解禁市值规模同样较为可观。
2026年9月9日 股票市场禁售压力较大，板块分化极端行情难以重现 2
本报告禁止在中国大陆境内发布 (请参阅本报告背面的重要信息披露及声明)
图表 1. 2026年分月份A股解禁市值
05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,000
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,000
1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月解禁市值(左轴) 累计解禁市值(右轴)
(亿元) (亿元)
资料来源：万得资讯，中银国际
图表 2. 2026年9月分行业解禁市值 图表 3. 2026年10月分行业解禁市值
02004006008001,000日常消费公用事业金融医疗保健可选消费能源材料工业信息技术
(亿元) 04008001,2001,6002,0002,400金融日常消费可选消费材料工业医疗保健能源公用事业信息技术
(亿元)
资料来源：万得资讯，中银国际 资料来源：万得资讯，中银国际
图表 4. 2026年11月分行业解禁市值 图表 5. 2026年12月分行业解禁市值
0100200300400500600日常消费金融材料医疗保健可选消费公用事业工业信息技术
(亿元) 04008001,2001,6002,0002,400日常消费公用事业通讯服务可选消费医疗保健工业金融材料信息技术
(亿元)
资料来源：万得资讯，中银国际 资料来源：万得资讯，中银国际
2026年9月9日 股票市场禁售压力较大，板块分化极端行情难以重现 3
本报告禁止在中国大陆境内发布 (请参阅本报告背面的重要信息披露及声明)
图表 6. 2026年9月解禁市值前十大公司
代码 公司 解禁日期 解禁数量占总股本比例 (%) 解禁市值 (亿元) Wind行业
600925.SH
苏能股份 2026-09-29 76.69 221.88 能源
688549.SH
中巨芯-U 2026-09-08 60.11 197.84 信息技术
688387.SH
信科移动-U 2026-09-28 41.01 174.27 信息技术
000630.SZ
铜陵有色 2026-09-15 15.96 136.56 材料
003031.SZ
中瓷电子 2026-09-11 24.59 133.87 信息技术
603162.SH
海通发展 2026-09-29 67.86 131.83 工业
688795.SH
摩尔线程-U 2026-09-07 5.48 107.09 信息技术
688802.SH
沐曦股份-U 2026-09-17 3.49 79.62 信息技术
688531.SH
日联科技 2026-09-30 30.69 71.98 工业
002736.SZ
国信证券 2026-09-10 6.14 63.81 金融
资料来源：万得资讯，中银国际
图表 7. 2026年10月解禁市值前十大公司
代码 公司 解禁日期 解禁数量占总股本比例 (%) 解禁市值 (亿元) Wind行业
688146.SH
中船特气 2026-10-21 72.62 899.63 信息技术
688783.SH
西安奕材-U 2026-10-28 70.26 793.47 信息技术
001286.SZ
陕西能源 2026-10-12 64.00 226.80 公用事业
601088.SH
中国神华 2026-10-08 2.11 210.94 能源
688765.SH
禾元生物-U 2026-10-28 56.36 76.73 医疗保健
601868.SH
中国能建 2026-10-08 5.76 62.96 工业
688507.SH
索辰科技 2026-10-19 44.75 60.32 信息技术
301307.SZ
美利信 2026-10-26 46.60 57.83 信息技术
688062.SH
迈威生物-U 2026-10-28 37.91 45.90 医疗保健
301358.SZ
湖南裕能 2026-10-09 9.74 45.64 材料
资料来源：万得资讯，中银国际
2026年9月9日 股票市场禁售压力较大，板块分化极端行情难以重现 4
本报告禁止在中国大陆境内发布 (请参阅本报告背面的重要信息披露及声明)
Certifications and Important Disclosures
All views expressed in this material reflect the personal views of each analyst about any and all of the subject securities or issuer(s).
In addition, no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or
views expressed in this material.
Except as disclosed herein, each analyst declares that (i) neither he/she nor his/her associate has any financial interests in relation
to the issuer(s) reviewed by the analyst, and (ii) neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of the issuer(s) reviewed
by the analyst.For the purposes of these certifications, the term “associate” includes members of the analyst’s household as defined
by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”).
Accordingly, none of the issuer(s) reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits
in connection with this material to any of the analysts, BOCI Securities Limited and BOC International Holdings Limited and any of
their respective subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively, the “BOCI Group”). Analysts receive compensation based upon the overall
revenue and profitability of the BOCI Group, including revenues derived from its investment banking business.
Member companies of the BOCI Group confirm that they, whether individually or as a group:
(i) do not own financial interests in an aggregate amount equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization in any of the
issuer(s) reviewed;
(ii) are not involved in any market making activities for any of the issuer(s) reviewed;
(iii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any member companies of BOCI Group serving as an officer of any
of the issuer(s) reviewed;
(iv) have not managed or co-managed a public offering of the issuer(s) reviewed within the preceding 12 months;
(v) Within the preceding 12 months, certain member companies of BOCI Group has/have an investment banking relationship with
and has/have received compensation or mandate for investment banking services from Moore Threads Technology Co Ltd
(vi) In the next 3 months, certain member companies of BOCI Group expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for
investment banking services from Moore Threads Technology Co Ltd
This disclosure statement is made pursuant to paragraph 16 of the “Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the
Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission” and is updated as of 7 September 2026. Waiver has been obtained by BOC
International Holdings Limited from the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong to disclose any interests the Bank of China
Limited and its subsidiaries and affiliates may have in this material.
BOCI Rating Definitions :
BUY : Stock with expected total absolute return (including dividends) > 10% over the next twelve months
HOLD : Stock with expected total absolute return (including dividends) between -10% to +10% over the next twelve months
SELL : Stock with expected total absolute return (including dividends) < -10% over the next twelve months
OVERWEIGHT : Sector expected to outperform the market benchmark over the next twelve months
NEUTRAL : Sector expected to perform in-line with market benchmark over the next twelve months
UNDERWEIGHT : Sector expected to underperform the market benchmark over the next twelve months
This material has been prepared and issued by BOCI Securities Limited (“BOCI Securities”), a company incorporated in
Hong Kong and regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. The material is intended for general
distribution to professional, accredited and institutional investors only and is being furnished on a confidential basis and
solely for informational purposes. This material, its contents or any copy thereof may not be published, in whole or in part,
for any purpose or altered, reproduced, redistributed or disseminated, directly or indirectly, to any other person, including
the press or the media, without the prior written consent of BOC International Holdings Limited and any of their respective
subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively, the “BOCI Group”). All trademarks, service marks and logos used or referenced herein
are beneficially owned by one or more members of the BOCI Group.
The distribution of this material in some jurisdictions may be restricted by law or regulation. This material is not directed to,
or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state,
country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use, would be contrary to law or subject BOCI
Securities and the BOCI Group to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Persons with possession
of this material should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions.
The information presented herein does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or
particular needs of any particular investor and shall not be construed as investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, nor be
deemed a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate. The information contained herein does
not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or invitation, or a solicitation or an offer to subscribe or purchase any securities
or other financial instruments, and should not be used to form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract
or commitment whatsoever. The BOCI Group has not taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this material
are suitable for any particular investor, and the BOCI Group will not treat recipients as its customers by virtue of their having
received this material. Investors should make their own independent judgment or consult independent financial or investment
advisers before making any investment decision, and in determining the suitability or assessing the investment risks of any
securities or other financial instruments.
Although information, opinions and estimates presented herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed by
BOCI Securities to be reliable, the BOCI Group nor its respective directors, officers, employees or agents have not
independently verified the information contained herein, except to the extent required by applicable law and regulation. The
accuracy and completeness of any information, opinions and estimates expressed cannot be guaranteed, and may reflect a
judgement as at the date of publication by BOCI Securities and may be based on a number of assumptions, which may not
prove valid and are subject to change at any time. Accordingly, the BOCI Group shall not have any liability whatsoever (in
negligence or otherwise) for any loss arising from any use of this material or its contents or otherwise except to the extent
required by applicable law or regulation. As such, the information, opinions and estimates expressed herein are provided on
an “as is” basis, and no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy or
completeness of such information, opinions and estimates. In addition, the BOCI Group may have issued other materials
that are inconsistent with, or reached different conclusions or opinions from, those presented in this material. For the
avoidance of doubt, views expressed in this material do not necessarily represent those of the BOCI Group. Each published
material reflects the different assumptions, analytical methods and views of the analyst who prepared them.
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty,
expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance. The price, value of and income from any of the securities or
financial instruments can fall as well as rise and may not be readily realisable. It also may prove difficult to obtain reliable
information about the value, or risks, to which such an investment is exposed.
This material may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, various websites. To the extent that this refers to
material outside the BOCI Group’s websites, the BOCI Group has not reviewed the linked sites and takes no responsibility
for such content. Such addresses or hyperlinks (including addresses or hyperlinks to the BOCI Group’s own website material)
are provided solely for convenience and information, and the content of the linked sites does not in any way form part of this
material. Accessing such websites is at your own risk.
Investors should refer to the respective credit rating agencies (including Moody's, S&P or Fitch) for their rating definitions,
methodology in evaluating the creditworthiness of the issuers and how the ratings are assigned. Rating agencies may change
their ratings upon short notice. A change in ratings may affect the price of securities outstanding. Investors investing in fixed
income financial instruments (such as bonds) denominated in non-local currency should be aware of the risk of exchange
rate fluctuations, which may cause a loss of principal, and that there may not be a secondary market for such fixed income
financial instruments.
One or more members of the BOCI Group may, to the extent permitted by applicable law or regulation, participate or invest
in financing transactions with the issuer(s) of the securities referred to in this material, perform services for or solicit business
from such issuer(s), and/or have a position or effect transactions in the securities or other financial instruments of such
issuer(s). One or more members of the BOCI Group may, to the extent permitted by applicable law or regulation, act upon
or use the information or opinions presented herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material
is published. One or more members of the BOCI Group and the analyst(s) preparing this material (each an “analyst” and
collectively the “analysts”) may, to the extent permitted by applicable law or regulation, have financial interests in or business
relationships with any or all of the companies mentioned in this material (each, a “listed issuer” and, collectively, the “listed
issuers”). See Certifications above for additional information.
This material may be distributed in Hong Kong by BOCI Securities Limited; in Singapore, by BOC International (Singapore)
Pte Ltd. (“BOCI Singapore”) and, in the United Kingdom, by Bank of China International (UK) Limited.
Without prejudice to any of the foregoing disclaimers, to the extent that the reader is an accredited or expert investor as
defined in Regulation 2 of the Financial Advisers Regulations (“FAR”) of the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of Singapore
(“FAA”), BOCI Singapore is in any event exempted (i) by Regulation 34 of the FAR from the requirement to have a reasonable
basis for making any recommendation as mandated under Section 27 of the FAA, and (ii) by Regulation 35 of the FAR from
the requirements in Section 36 of the FAA mandating disclosure of any interests in securities mentioned in this material, or
in their acquisition or disposal, that it or its associated or connected persons may have. The recipient of the analysis or
material should contact BOCI Singapore, if they have any queries as to the material/analysis.
BOCI Securities is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States. Where this material is distributed by BOCI Securities
in the United States, it shall only be provided to “major U.S. institutional investors” in reliance on the exemption from
registration provided by Rule 15a-6 (“SEC Rule 15a-6”) of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended
(“Exchange Act”). Any securities referred to herein have not been registered with, recommended by or approved by any
U.S. federal or state, or any non-U.S. securities commission or regulatory authority, nor has any such authority or commission
passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of this material. Any securities referred to herein have not been and are not expected
to be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (“Securities Act”), or any state of other securities laws
or the laws of any non-U.S. jurisdiction. The BOCI Group does not make any representation as to the availability of Rule
144A or any other exemption under the Securities Act for the sale, resale, pledge or transfer of any securities referred to in
the material. Any U.S. person (as defined under the Exchange Act or the U.S. Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended)
who is a recipient of this material wishing to effect any transaction to buy or sell securities or related financial instruments
may do so solely pursuant to the provisions of SEC Rule 15a-6.
In the United Kingdom, this material is not a prospectus and has not been approved under section 21 of the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000 (the “FSMA”). This material may only be passed on to persons in or outside the United
Kingdom in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotions) Order 2005, specifically,
Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients (to include Elective Professional Clients). The transmission of this material
to any other persons must not contravene the FSMA and other applicable UK securities laws and regulations. All applicable
provisions of the FSMA must be complied with respect to the securities referred to in this material in, from, or otherwise
involving the United Kingdom.
Copyright 2026 BOCI Securities Limited, BOC International Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries and affiliates. All rights
reserved.
20/F, Bank of China Tower
1 Garden Road
Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3988 6000
Fax: (852) 2147 9513
Toll free numbers to Hong Kong:
China North: 10800 8521065
China South: 10800 1521065
Singapore: 800 852 3392
BOCI Securities Limited
20/F, Bank of China Tower
1 Garden Road
Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3988 6000
Fax: (852) 2147 9513
Bank of China International (UK) Limited
2/F, 1 Lothbury
London EC2R 7DB
United Kingdom
Tel: (4420) 3651 8888
Fax: (4420) 3651 8877
BOC International (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.
Reg. No. 199303046Z
4 Battery Road
30/F Bank of China Building
Singapore 049908
Tel: (65) 6671 8686 /(65) 6671 8687
BOC International (China) Co., Ltd
Room 2308
Bank of China Tower
No. 200 Yincheng Road (M)
Pudong, Shanghai 200120
China
Tel: (8621) 6881 1163
Fax: (8621) 6881 1295
BOC International Holdings Ltd
Representative Office
8/F, No.110 Xidan North Street
Xicheng District
Beijing 100032, China
Tel: (8610) 8326 2000
Fax: (8610) 8326 2290